July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Logically, it doesn't make sense to me: Let's bring in data scientists to create a stand alone, meteorological modeling system lol. I'm sure it'll get better (build dat' training dataset), but for now, I'd say they're 1-2 decades away from making anything comparable to traditional NWP.

I still think using AI to bias correct ic/bcs is the way to go. I know that has merit.

Yea, it's a bit misleading... They used HRRR analysis as ground truth to make the conclusion that 'HRRR-Cast is comparable to HRRR...' I'd still rather see evaluations/comparisons at METAR/radiosonde sites.

I really wish alot of these resources were dedicated to what we have an improving on them instead of like "recreating the wheel". One thing I'll say though is regarding severe weather and tornadoes, the amount of data which is being collected on the ground (especially with drones), I would think AI could be used to vastly enhance our understanding of what exactly is occurring leading up to tornadogenesis and help better answer the question of why some mesocyclones will drop a tornado while other's don't. If we can better understand these processes we can then build them into a model and I could see AI yielding some major break throughs. Absolutely agreed with the bolded!

[dendrite]

Min 51.5°

[mreaves]

The low was 46° yesterday and 47° today.  Beautiful sleeping weather.

[weathafella]

It seems like WAR may be a big feature once we move into the 2nd week of August.  That may coincide with a much more active tropical Atlantic.

[weatherwiz]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Min 51.5°

Heavily debated throwing the heat on in the car for a bit this morning. Was chilly when I got in.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

46.0° this morning. House is delightfully cold. Hoping to make it to Saturday without turning on the AC, though it's not like a single 8000 BTU window unit can do much anyway.

[MegaMike]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I really wish alot of these resources were dedicated to what we have an improving on them instead of like "recreating the wheel". One thing I'll say though is regarding severe weather and tornadoes, the amount of data which is being collected on the ground (especially with drones), I would think AI could be used to vastly enhance our understanding of what exactly is occurring leading up to tornadogenesis and help better answer the question of why some mesocyclones will drop a tornado while other's don't. If we can better understand these processes we can then build them into a model and I could see AI yielding some major break throughs. Absolutely agreed with the bolded!

My advisor would always tell me that!

Someone did manage to simulate a tornado (EF5 in El Reno 2011) using a modeling system intended for very fine atmospheric phenomena (CM1): https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/10/578

If you wanted, had the resources (19,600 nodes -> 672,200 cores & 270 TB worth of space), and had a lot of time, you can run the simulation too! In serial mode (single CPU), it'd take decades for this simulation to complete. Really, we have the modeling systems to run highly accurate simulations, but unfortunately, data assimilation and (relatively) limited resources is inhibiting us.

A nice video of the results: 

 

[dendrite]

GFS is trying to deliver a frost/freeze to the pits of NNE. 

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

My advisor would always tell me that!

Someone did manage to simulate a tornado (EF5 in El Reno 2011) using a modeling system intended for very fine atmospheric phenomena (CM1): https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/10/578

If you wanted, had the resources (19,600 nodes -> 672,200 cores & 270 TB worth of space), and had a lot of time, you can run the simulation too! In serial mode (single CPU), it'd take decades for this simulation to complete. Really, we have the modeling systems to run highly accurate simulations, but unfortunately, data assimilation and (relatively) limited resources is inhibiting us.

A nice video of the results: 

 

Wow...that is incredible!!! The part where you have the warm/moist air along the FFD feeding into wall cloud and funnel was probably my favorite part. That was probably the best visual/simulation I've ever seen. Granted this was one of the most textbook tornadoes captured on record but still. This deserves to be included in any severe wx class (undergrad or graduate). 

[Great Snow 1717]

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Heavily debated throwing the heat on in the car for a bit this morning. Was chilly when I got in.

c'mon lol

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

c'mon lol

Not full blown...just enough to eliminate the chill. Outside of our bedroom and living room where the ACs are cranking down to like 66 the rest of the house is like 75-80...so going from that to 50's is a bit of a shock lol. 50's and sun...fine...50's with no sun set...not fine

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Not full blown...just enough to eliminate the chill. Outside of our bedroom and living room where the ACs are cranking down to like 66 the rest of the house is like 75-80...so going from that to 50's is a bit of a shock lol. 50's and sun...fine...50's with no sun set...not fine

what chill????????

[MegaMike]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow...that is incredible!!! The part where you have the warm/moist air along the FFD feeding into wall cloud and funnel was probably my favorite part. That was probably the best visual/simulation I've ever seen. Granted this was one of the most textbook tornadoes captured on record but still. This deserves to be included in any severe wx class (undergrad or graduate). 

Right? Super cool!

I believe they used VAPOR to create most/all of their graphics.

Agreed in that I doubt they'll be able to replicate their success for most other tornadoes 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

what chill????????

It was lower 50's...that's certainly cool. If people's houses were 50's they'd be turning on the heat. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

It was lower 50's...that's certainly cool. If people's houses were 50's they'd be turning on the heat. 

.....eh...feels great at this time of the year

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

.....eh...feels great at this time of the year

I don't disagree with that. When you have these mornings after a super hot/humid day and you bring in this airmass overnight it feels great in the morning. It's hard to explain but because it got cool quickly last evening, I hated it more this morning lol. Like say it was really humid during the evening and then cooled overnight...I would have enjoyed better.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

My brother said a lot of flooding down on Hilton Head Island today.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

58 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It seems like WAR may be a big feature once we move into the 2nd week of August.  That may coincide with a much more active tropical Atlantic.

Agree. After the early Aug dew down, we may get a sustained war with a cooler Canada which will drive a tropical feed, moisture at least, into Ditty’s sweaty fanny.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. After the early Aug dew down, we may get a sustained war with a cooler Canada which will drive a tropical feed, moisture at least, into Ditty’s sweaty fanny.

At least by that point, bums aren't quite as toasty in car seats...

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

GFS is trying to deliver a frost/freeze to the pits of NNE. 

This is Maple Hollow erasure.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

It seems like WAR may be a big feature once we move into the 2nd week of August.  That may coincide with a much more active tropical Atlantic.

Yup it’s a very short mild down in Aug. Rest of month is HHH with big WAR expansion and cane threat 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup it’s a very short mild down in Aug. Rest of month is HHH with big WAR expansion and cane threat 

On a scale of 1-10, with one being on the cape in a soueaster and 10 being north of Tolland in a SWFE, how safe do you feel??

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is Maple Hollow erasure.

Sorry kids. No Christmas this year

[weatherwiz]

GFS trying to get an EML in here next week and we'll have to watch for some days into the 90's with 70 dews

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sorry kids. No Christmas this year

Winter next?

[wokeupthisam]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sorry kids. No Christmas this year

Yikes that just pains me to look at 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MegaMike said:

My advisor would always tell me that!

Someone did manage to simulate a tornado (EF5 in El Reno 2011) using a modeling system intended for very fine atmospheric phenomena (CM1): https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/10/578

If you wanted, had the resources (19,600 nodes -> 672,200 cores & 270 TB worth of space), and had a lot of time, you can run the simulation too! In serial mode (single CPU), it'd take decades for this simulation to complete. Really, we have the modeling systems to run highly accurate simulations, but unfortunately, data assimilation and (relatively) limited resources is inhibiting us.

A nice video of the results: 

 

Perfect candidate for QC application, huh -

[MegaMike]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perfect candidate for QC application, huh -

Definitely! If CM1 missed this one (Reno), it likely can't resolve tornadoes unless (maybe) you beef up the model specs. 

The amount of resources to even run that simulation still gets me... A quarter of a trillion grid points, for a 42 minute simulation (time steps = 0.2s), that spans an area of ~5,600 miles^2 (~6x size of RI), and it took their cluster 3 days to run. That's crazy. Imagine running that for the entire U.S.?

[weatherwiz]

Boooo 12z took away the tornado area and also added a small corridor for hail...not sure we have any hail potential given how crazy warm it is aloft. Maybe far NNE with early developing cells

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Boooo 12z took away the tornado area and also added a small corridor for hail...not sure we have any hail potential given how crazy warm it is aloft. Maybe far NNE with early developing cells

I mean the RAP forecast FZL for like FIT is near 16,000 ft. So very warm, but just looking at the shape of CAPE, there is enough there in the growth zone. Kind of like what we had Sunday up here. It was a lower FZL, but it was mostly big drops with pennies and dimes mixed in.