Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:00 PM Or not ... but there are some super synoptic flags that slope in favor of warmer than normal, CC footprint not including. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Thursday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:10 PM 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Or not ... but there are some super synoptic flags that slope in favor of warmer than normal, CC footprint not including. Really? I see some ridging out west and a sort of meh pattern for us. Doesn't look extreme in terms of heat especially in comparison to recent stretch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 10:16 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:16 PM The operational versions seem to conserve the progressive nature to the mass fields through the 4th weekend ... this actually keeps are chances for fair weather higher if that prevails that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted Thursday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:17 PM Did @Damage In Tolland get a hold of Tip’s keyboard? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 10:22 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:22 PM 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Really? I see some ridging out west and a sort of meh pattern for us. Doesn't look extreme in terms of heat especially in comparison to recent stretch The PNA in the telecon spread collapsed ... These negative EPOs bursts during a PNA that is neutral negative ends up displacing westerlies S through the Rockies. This is what precisely led to this recent heat. I see vestiges in the behavior of the models as though that tendency is lurking. For example, heights keep rebuilding between HA and California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 10:25 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:25 PM Guys... "possible" is not a slam dunk. Folks should just be prepared for the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted yesterday at 01:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:38 AM I for one have grown to have great respect for Tip's ability to decode the long lead tea leaves, when it comes what the tele index trends are implying! His ability to discern heat burst potential is something we should pay attention to? He would be the first to tell you nothing is a lock, but knowing he sees the potential is reason enough pay attention. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted yesterday at 02:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:12 AM 29 minutes ago, FXWX said: I for one have grown to have great respect for Tip's ability to decode the long lead tea leaves, when it comes what the tele index trends are implying! His ability to discern heat burst potential is something we should pay attention to? He would be the first to tell you nothing is a lock, but knowing he sees the potential is reason enough pay attention. Well said, he also does this during the winter months as a few others do as well. However, I hope he is wrong about historic type of heat….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 11:33 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:33 AM 13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: The PNA in the telecon spread collapsed ... These negative EPOs bursts during a PNA that is neutral negative ends up displacing westerlies S through the Rockies. This is what precisely led to this recent heat. I see vestiges in the behavior of the models as though that tendency is lurking. For example, heights keep rebuilding between HA and California. I’d like to see more of a trough into the Rockies like this last heat burst. I do think a piece could break off though. Ridge builds more towards the Rockies and west coast around day 10, but then slowly retros so that it may open up the door to the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the 11-15 day. Note I’m just looking at the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 11:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:34 AM 4th looking warmer which is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 11:59 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 11:59 AM 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d like to see more of a trough into the Rockies like this last heat burst. I do think a piece could break off though. Ridge builds more towards the Rockies and west coast around day 10, but then slowly retros so that it may open up the door to the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the 11-15 day. Note I’m just looking at the EPS. As is ... sure. I just would remind folks 10 days to two weeks back the illustration of the runs were torpid at best, and at times absent of the eventual destiny of a bigger ridge anomaly/heat. However, looping - like watching them in cinema - conveyed a different suggestion. It's a situation where we could see another of these materialize, much in the same way ... coming out of an initial state where aspects are more vague. But, doing so heading into climo, + CC attribution, + the fact that as is, there is a + thickness anomaly due to WV loading ( probably related to former) and lows are going to be elevated. It's entirely possible to put up a top 10 or better July without even observing an official heat wave. ...etc. We're in a vulnerability for higher means... Maybe "possibly historic" is too strong for some people, fine - call it above normal. whatever You know ... any time and any place on Earth, since about 2002, whenever there's been mere suggestions hinting at the possibility of above normal temperatures, the return has been pretty dependable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 12:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:22 PM 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: As is ... sure. I just would remind folks 10 days to two weeks back the illustration of the runs were torpid at best, and at times absent of the eventual destiny of a bigger ridge anomaly/heat. However, looping - like watching them in cinema - conveyed a different suggestion. It's a situation where we could see another of these materialize, much in the same way ... coming out of an initial state where aspects are more vague. But, doing so heading into climo, + CC attribution, + the fact that as is, there is a + thickness anomaly due to WV loading ( probably related to former) and lows are going to be elevated. It's entirely possible to put up a top 10 or better July without even observing an official heat wave. ...etc. We're in a vulnerability for higher means... Maybe "possibly historic" is too strong for some people, fine - call it above normal. whatever You know ... any time and any place on Earth, since about 2002, whenever there's been mere suggestions hinting at the possibility of above normal temperatures, the return has been pretty dependable. I agree….i see it too. I guess it didn’t quite get my attn yet. It’s been a good forecast to always hedge warmer….hell not just in summer too, but I won’t go there. Solid summer weather on the way for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted yesterday at 01:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:24 PM July looks to be well AN. At least the first 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago Hey Scott ... re our recursion argument, get a load of the 12z GGEM Look familiar ? ... this is emerged out of a banal/flat look, albeit modestly above normal in its own rights, pattern orientation from the previous couple of cycles. This is just for the example for now - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago TORCH JULORCH!!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hey Scott ... re our recursion argument, get a load of the 12z GGEM Look familiar ? ... the emerged out of a banal/flat look, albeit modestly above normal in its own rights, pattern orientation from the previous couple of cycles. This is just for the example for now - Yeah that would work. Lets do that. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago top 5 hottest July incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 hour ago, ma blizzard said: top 5 hottest July incoming It’s possible we all come in hottest ever . What a look wire to wire right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago No chance hottest ever 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago “Hurricane hottest” would also work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago No matter what happens it’s gonna be hot and dewy..somewhere and for some indeterminate amount of time, that we know for sure. Maybe we’ll even see thunderstorms again, the likes of which we’ve never seen before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The 4th looks like the coolest day out of the bunch coming up. Probably near 80 and low dews. Otherwise it’s a summery look. Possibly some 90+ weekend after the 4th. After that we trough again and then as I said yesterday, it looks to retro and open up the door to warmer and more humid weather at the end of the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now