July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[Typhoon Tip]

Or not ... but there are some super synoptic flags that slope in favor of warmer than normal, CC footprint not including.   

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Or not ... but there are some super synoptic flags that slope in favor of warmer than normal, CC footprint not including.   

Really? I see some ridging out west and a sort of meh pattern for us. Doesn't look extreme in terms of heat especially in comparison to recent stretch 

[Typhoon Tip]

The operational versions seem to conserve the progressive nature to the mass fields through the 4th weekend ... this actually keeps are chances for fair weather higher if that prevails that way. 

[SJonesWX]

Did @Damage In Tolland get a hold of Tip’s keyboard?

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really? I see some ridging out west and a sort of meh pattern for us. Doesn't look extreme in terms of heat especially in comparison to recent stretch 

The PNA in the telecon spread collapsed ...  

These negative EPOs bursts during a PNA that is neutral negative ends up displacing westerlies S through the Rockies.  This is what precisely led to this recent heat.   I see vestiges in the behavior of the models as though that tendency is lurking.  For example, heights keep rebuilding between HA and California. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Guys... "possible" is not a slam dunk.   Folks should just be prepared for the possibility.   

  

[FXWX]

I for one have grown to have great respect for Tip's ability to decode the long lead tea leaves, when it comes what the tele index trends are implying!  His ability to discern heat burst potential is something we should pay attention to?  He would be the first to tell you nothing is a lock, but knowing he sees the potential is reason enough pay attention.  

[512high]

29 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I for one have grown to have great respect for Tip's ability to decode the long lead tea leaves, when it comes what the tele index trends are implying!  His ability to discern heat burst potential is something we should pay attention to?  He would be the first to tell you nothing is a lock, but knowing he sees the potential is reason enough pay attention.  

Well said, he also does this during the winter months as a few others do as well. However, I hope he is wrong about historic type of heat…..

[CoastalWx]

13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The PNA in the telecon spread collapsed ...  

These negative EPOs bursts during a PNA that is neutral negative ends up displacing westerlies S through the Rockies.  This is what precisely led to this recent heat.   I see vestiges in the behavior of the models as though that tendency is lurking.  For example, heights keep rebuilding between HA and California. 

I’d like to see more of a trough into the Rockies like this last heat burst. I do think a piece could break off though. 
 

Ridge builds more towards the Rockies and west coast around day 10, but then slowly retros so that it may open up the door to the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the 11-15 day. Note I’m just looking at the EPS. 

[CoastalWx]

4th looking warmer which is good.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see more of a trough into the Rockies like this last heat burst. I do think a piece could break off though. 
 

Ridge builds more towards the Rockies and west coast around day 10, but then slowly retros so that it may open up the door to the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the 11-15 day. Note I’m just looking at the EPS. 

As is ... sure.  

I just would remind folks 10 days to two weeks back the illustration of the runs were torpid at best, and at times absent of the eventual destiny of a bigger ridge anomaly/heat. 

However, looping - like watching them in cinema - conveyed a different suggestion. It's a situation where we could see another of these materialize, much in the same way ... coming out of an initial state where aspects are more vague.  But, doing so heading into climo, + CC attribution, + the fact that as is, there is a + thickness anomaly due to WV loading ( probably related to former) and lows are going to be elevated.  It's entirely possible to put up a top 10 or better July without even observing an official heat wave.  ...etc.  We're in a vulnerability for higher means...

Maybe "possibly historic" is too strong for some people, fine - call it above normal. whatever

You know ... any time and any place on Earth, since about 2002, whenever there's been  mere suggestions hinting at the possibility of above normal temperatures,  the return has been pretty dependable.  

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As is ... sure.  

I just would remind folks 10 days to two weeks back the illustration of the runs were torpid at best, and at times absent of the eventual destiny of a bigger ridge anomaly/heat. 

However, looping - like watching them in cinema - conveyed a different suggestion. It's a situation where we could see another of these materialize, much in the same way ... coming out of an initial state where aspects are more vague.  But, doing so heading into climo, + CC attribution, + the fact that as is, there is a + thickness anomaly due to WV loading ( probably related to former) and lows are going to be elevated.  It's entirely possible to put up a top 10 or better July without even observing an official heat wave.  ...etc.  We're in a vulnerability for higher means...

Maybe "possibly historic" is too strong for some people, fine - call it above normal. whatever

You know ... any time and any place on Earth, since about 2002, whenever there's been  mere suggestions hinting at the possibility of above normal temperatures,  the return has been pretty dependable.  

I agree….i see it too. I guess it didn’t quite get my attn yet. 
 

It’s been a good forecast to always hedge warmer….hell not just in summer too, but I won’t go there.  
 

Solid summer weather on the way for the foreseeable future.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

July looks to be well AN.  At least the first 2 weeks. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey Scott ... re our recursion argument, get a load of the 12z GGEM

Look familiar ?   ... this is emerged out of a banal/flat look, albeit modestly above normal in its own rights, pattern orientation from the previous couple of cycles.    This is just for the example for now -

[Damage In Tolland]

TORCH JULORCH!!!!!

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Scott ... re our recursion argument, get a load of the 12z GGEM

Look familiar ?   ... the emerged out of a banal/flat look, albeit modestly above normal in its own rights, pattern orientation from the previous couple of cycles.    This is just for the example for now -

Yeah that would work. Lets do that. LOL.