July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I planeted a tomato plant and a jalapeño plant in a raised garden. It’s doing ok so far. Got them at Home Depot lol 

My zucchinis are comically large this year. And the single jalapeno that grew on my plant is the size of my fist. 

[Sundog]

37 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

As if we didn't know...

Next week's heat pulse won't be as hot as the June shot we had perhaps...

 

I was going to joke how NYC's urban heat island has expanded to a third the size of the United States because only concrete apparently is responsible for elevated lows (nevermind the fact that UHI has been baked into the averages for decades) but your post is very informative so I didn't want to reduce it down to a joke. 

Just give me lower dewpoint temps PLEASE, I'll take mid 90s until the end of August if I can just keep dews under 55. 

[steve392]

12 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

My zucchinis are comically large this year. And the single jalapeno that grew on my plant is the size of my fist. 

My tomatoes just won't grow this year. Got actual tomatoes but the plant just won't grow.  Peppers are very slow.  My zucchini, pumpkin, cantaloupe and sweet potatoes are exploding.  My corn is rebounding after squirrel damaged 5 stalks. 

[steve392]

Ohhh and it's absolutely disgusting out there. 

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I was going to joke how NYC's urban heat island has expanded to a third the size of the United States because only concrete apparently is responsible for elevated lows (nevermind the fact that UHI has been baked into the averages for decades) but your post is very informative so I didn't want to reduce it down to a joke. 

Just give me lower dewpoint temps PLEASE, I'll take mid 90s until the end of August if I can just keep dews under 55. 

That's a good joke, haha.  NYC's UHI took over the NE.

The anomalies on the lows in the NE are off the chart though, makes for a very hot summer, as we are experiencing.  I think Bluewave posted the map where most of the NE is having a top 5 warmest July, which isn't a surprise with lows being so warm overall to normal.  It's really a continuation of the high DP pattern we've been having ever summer now.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Picard said:

Agreed.  We had our humid days, but never to this extent.  And there is definitely a big difference when the dewpoint is 70 vs. 78.  I always found 70ish tolerable.  I'm going to wager a guess that the actual amount of moisture in the air grows exponentially as the dewpoint value increases (as opposed to linear growth which wouldn't have as dramatic an effect).

Yeah, this is why we have been observing such a steep increase in extreme rainfall and flooding in recent years.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10083550/#:~:text=Meteorologists use the Clausius–Clapeyron,a 1 °C rise.

The equation shows how warmer air can hold more moisture, which is crucial to forecast the increased strength of storms and the higher intensity of rainfall. “A key point about this equation is that it has an exponential in there,” says Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office. “An exponential curve, of course, goes up more steeply the further up you get. So quite quickly as temperature increases, you get into large numbers for additional rainfall.”

So, the equation points at a wetter future. But as researchers are learning, that’s only the beginning. Future storms may produce even more rain than the venerable equation predicts.

[nycwinter]

33 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I was going to joke how NYC's urban heat island has expanded to a third the size of the United States because only concrete apparently is responsible for elevated lows (nevermind the fact that UHI has been baked into the averages for decades) but your post is very informative so I didn't want to reduce it down to a joke. 

Just give me lower dewpoint temps PLEASE, I'll take mid 90s until the end of August if I can just keep dews under 55. 

you will get a dewpoint  break friday into saturday enjoy it i will..

[SACRUS]

 

91 / 72

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

That's a good joke, haha.  NYC's UHI took over the NE.

The anomalies on the lows in the NE are off the chart though, makes for a very hot summer, as we are experiencing.  I think Bluewave posted the map where most of the NE is having a top 5 warmest July, which isn't a surprise with lows being so warm overall to normal.  It's really a continuation of the high DP pattern we've been having ever summer now.

Yeah, this is the warmest summer on record so far for low temperatures in many stations in the East. Record dew points and plenty of clouds keeping the minimums up. So the increased clouds and rain during the day has resulted in lower rankings for high temperatures.

 

[doncat]

90/78 whew.

[winterwarlock]

92/79/107

 

Officially my 4th heatwave of 2025

[weathermedic]

86/77 HI 96 here

[MorristownWx]

92/109 HI

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

My tomatoes just won't grow this year. Got actual tomatoes but the plant just won't grow.  Peppers are very slow.  My zucchini, pumpkin, cantaloupe and sweet potatoes are exploding.  My corn is rebounding after squirrel damaged 5 stalks. 

The tomatoes got off to a very slow start this season due to all that cloudy/cool weather we had mid May through mid June. They're doing better now and I will get a decent crop, but it appears that it's not gonna be the best season for tomatoes.

The thing that's doing the best in my garden is the pole lima beans. They're growing like CRAZY and absolutely loaded with flowers and small pods. 

This weekend I'm gonna start my romaine lettuce seeds for the fall. 

[dmillz25]

90/75 here yuck

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

My tomatoes just won't grow this year. Got actual tomatoes but the plant just won't grow.  Peppers are very slow.  My zucchini, pumpkin, cantaloupe and sweet potatoes are exploding.  My corn is rebounding after squirrel damaged 5 stalks. 

I got a dwarf tomato plant, as I no longer have a back yard, just a balcony. Not too many tomatoes/flowers on the plant. Also there were some that looked ripe on the outside, a nice deep red, but when I sliced them open, they were still green on the inside. Very frustrating.

 

[bluewave]

South Florida weather here on the CT Shoreline but at least the sun angle is a bit lower.

 

New Haven      MOSUNNY   91  78  65 S10G16    30.01F HX 106

FT LAUD EXEC   PTSUNNY   91  78  65 SE16      30.05F HX 106

[Wannabehippie]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

90/75 here yuck

91 by me, 83dp. So gross out.

 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

Bro I don't need any instruments lol, I went outside for about an hour and it's already vile

Aruba dewpoints without the beaches or scenery or breeze. 

Aruba was great 2 weeks ago.  It actually sprinkled a few mornings for a bit. Way less crowded too than usual since it is their offseason.    

I really do like how WBGT is calculated.  It makes way more sense than how heat index is calculated.  

[SACRUS]

 

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Aruba was great 2 weeks ago.  It actually sprinkled a few mornings for a bit. Way less crowded too than usual since it is their offseason.    

I really do like how WBGT is calculated.  It makes way more sense than how heat index is calculated.  

I've only been to Aruba in the off season, three times in July. 

The constant strong breeze makes the weather bearable.

[jm1220]

Not really any cooler on the barrier islands. Temps mid to upper 80s and even higher dews near 80. 

[FPizz]

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I've only been to Aruba in the off season, three times in July. 

The constant strong breeze makes the weather bearable.

Been in July, March and December the past 8 months, haha.  December was fine since it was before Christmas.  March was definitely the busiest.  Right now they said they get maybe 1 or 2 cruise ships in per week, and they are usually smaller ones.  The busy months, they get the monster cruise ships in, several per week, and sometimes that adds more than 10,000 people to the island on those days.  

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Been in July, March and December the past 8 months, haha.  December was fine since it was before Christmas.  March was definitely the busiest.  Right now they said they get maybe 1 or 2 cruise ships in per week, and they are usually smaller ones.  The busy months, they get the monster cruise ships in, several per week, and sometimes that adds more than 10,000 people to the island on those days.  

Time share?

[winterwx21]

94 with a dewpoint of 74 here right now. 

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Time share?

No.  We rented off redweek this time.  December we booked through a hotel.  In March we booked through Divi.  

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 90 today, DP at an uncomfortable 75. 

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region will experience a shower or thundershower this evening and tonight.

The heat will peak tomorrow with highs topping out in the lower 90s across much of the region. Friday will be somewhat cooler and a warm and mainly dry weekend will follow.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning. There is some severe weather and excessive rainfall potential.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +11.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.121 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Been in July, March and December the past 8 months, haha.  December was fine since it was before Christmas.  March was definitely the busiest.  Right now they said they get maybe 1 or 2 cruise ships in per week, and they are usually smaller ones.  The busy months, they get the monster cruise ships in, several per week, and sometimes that adds more than 10,000 people to the island on those days.  

My old neighbor used to be an airline manager back in the days before security was as tight as it is today. He was lying on the beach in curaçao and a cute little kitten came up to him on the beach. It wouldn’t leave him so he brought it back with him on the plane and it lived with him in Long Beach. 

[FPizz]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My old neighbor used to be an airline manager back in the days before security was as tight as it is today. He was lying on the beach in curaçao and a cute little kitten came up to him on the beach. It wouldn’t leave him so he brought it back with him on the plane and it lived with him in Long Beach. 

That is cute.  I want to head there next.  Aruba does have a lot of wild dogs. I think i read 25000+.  I've seen a few.  They seemed friendly and people were petting them, but id never go by one.