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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Argentina was the place to go recently to avoid all the record heat around the world.

 

Windhoek Nambia broke their all time record low 2 times over for June in a span of a week but its fairly mild now in SA and southern Africa after it had been cold for a couple of weeks 

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Tomorrow will be very warm with highs reaching the upper 80s to perhaps 90° in New York City and the lower and middle 90s in Newark. Wednesday through Friday will be turn cooler with increased clouds. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to near 80° through Friday. Each day could feature the risk of some heavy thunderstorms. 

The rainfall amount could be enhanced somewhat by some of the moisture from Chantals remnants.

No widespread excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -4.00 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.160 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal). 

 

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