June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Oh sure 70 and clouds every weekend and 62 with light rain this Monday morning screams summertime

That's pretty typical for early June. For a couple of representative spots in the region... the mean high temperature for the first 8 days of June at Bridgeport, Connecticut has been 76.1F, which is 24th highest of 77 years.  Newark is 80.8F, which is 38th highest of 95 years. A cold year would be like 1945, which was 62.8F at Newark, or 1997 (67.6F at Newark and 64.6F at Bridgeport, Conn.).

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

That's pretty typical for early June. For a couple of representative spots in the region... the mean high temperature for the first 8 days of June at Bridgeport, Connecticut has been 76.1F, which is 24th highest of 77 years.  Newark is 80.8F, which is 38th highest of 95 years. A cold year would be like 1945, which was 62.8F at Newark, or 1997 (67.6F at Newark and 64.6F at Bridgeport, Conn.).

LaGuardia is at 78.5F mean high for the first 8 days of June, or 35th highest of 86 years. It was 62.1F in 1945, which is below even the 62.8F mean low temperature for the month to date.

[winterwx21]

Had some light to moderate rain -- 0.14" here today. Only 64 degrees right now.

Terrible weather, but I will take advantage of it by going for a long fast run. To me that's the only positive about still having weather this cool in June -- being able to run fast instead of having to run slowly in the hot weather.

I am looking forward to the summery weather that we're going to have mid to late week though. We should hit low 90s here on Thursday. Too bad it will go back to the dreary east winds weather for Father's Day Weekend. 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

That's pretty typical for early June. For a couple of representative spots in the region... the mean high temperature for the first 8 days of June at Bridgeport, Connecticut has been 76.1F, which is 24th highest of 77 years.  Newark is 80.8F, which is 38th highest of 95 years. A cold year would be like 1945, which was 62.8F at Newark, or 1997 (67.6F at Newark and 64.6F at Bridgeport, Conn.).

it wasn't like this in a few years in the 90s we went straight from winter to summer, it was a common theme here, check out May 1991

That was one amazing summer from May through September

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

LaGuardia is at 78.5F mean high for the first 8 days of June, or 35th highest of 86 years. It was 62.1F in 1945, which is below even the 62.8F mean low temperature for the month to date.

Our Septembers are now hotter than our Junes are.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

LaGuardia is at 78.5F mean high for the first 8 days of June, or 35th highest of 86 years. It was 62.1F in 1945, which is below even the 62.8F mean low temperature for the month to date.

Of course 2010 is at the top that's our hottest summer of record here. 1999 is number 2.

 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I don't recall any forecasts saying temps would stay this low during the day. 

They did say it would stay in the 60s.

Naturally we're going to get lower temps in this kind of pattern.

At least it's not cold enough for me to turn on my space heater lol.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Temperatures have been average...

today is at least a -10

 

[LibertyBell]

Looks like the sun will come out tomorrow around 4 PM, we won't have to wait for Wednesday to clear out.

It will rain in the morning, dry out by noon and clear out by 3-4 pm.

[FPizz]

6 hours ago, Sundog said:

Why has this year been so bad? There hasn't been anything exatraordinary about our weather over the last couple months. 

No clue.  Maybe Justin can let us know

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. Temperatures will top out in the middle 70s. Some showers or a thundershower are possible, especially during tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night as a warm front moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms have the potential to bring heavy downpours.

Afterward, it will turn warmer for several days with temperatures rising into the 80s. Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the week with the mercury rising into at least the middle 80s. It will turn cooler for the weekend.

No exceptional heat appears likely through mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around May 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

The SOI was -5.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.466 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).

 

[frd]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. Temperatures will top out in the middle 70s. Some showers or a thundershower are possible, especially during tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night as a warm front moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms have the potential to bring heavy downpours.

Afterward, it will turn warmer for several days with temperatures rising into the 80s. Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the week with the mercury rising into at least the middle 80s. It will turn cooler for the weekend.

No exceptional heat appears likely through mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around May 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

The SOI was -5.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.466 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).

 

Still think summer will be a very hot ?  

[Sundog]

It smells like the sea

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Still think summer will be a very hot ?  

I think it will be warmer than normal. The predominant pattern will likely develop in late June and then lock into place with some brief cooler periods.

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

No clue.  Maybe Justin can let us know

Ticks do well when we have snow cover before any arctic outbreaks, which we had this winter. Then early spring being moist helps get them active again. It has really been ideal conditions. 

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, frd said:

Still think summer will be a very hot ?  

Above average all time high averages, yes.  But probably not too much extreme heat.  I mean that's just gut bc long range forecasting is meh imo.  

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think it will be warmer than normal. The predominant pattern will likely develop in late June and then lock into place with some brief cooler periods.

Warm and wet would be my guess.  Prob another high dew summer. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Warm and wet would be my guess.  Prob another high dew summer. 

Likely above average, 1-2 degrees. Absolutely agree about dews, lots of 88 with a dew of 75. Our climate is more resembling the coastal Carolina’s during summer. As the higher temps with lower dews combo migrates north to Montreal and Maine.