Winter 2025-26

[CAPE]

20 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The only wild card this winter appears to be if we get help from the EPO or PNA. Otherwise it's probably best to temper expectations.

And we have had 'help' in those domains in recent Nina winters. At this juncture I will be optimistic and side with persistence. I don't see any reason to think that won't be the case for at least a portion of the winter. The PDO? fuck it. It hasn't been favorable for years and we have still managed patterns that produced cold and some snow. I mean, fundamentally a -PDO is expected with cold ENSO. Historically that's how it works.

[WEATHER53]

This years spring and summer have traits of 1962, 1989, 2008 .

I think we get  20-30” this  year with an impressive 45 day mostly cold cycle, I think Dec is mostly mild 

 

[Bob Chill]

On 9/10/2025 at 7:53 PM, WxUSAF said:

Yeah 13-14 has some things going for it. 14-15 was a Nino. Neither had the water near Japan as boiling as it is this year however. 

The NE pac warm pool didn't get going until Dec and the PDO was favorable at the beginning of met winter. The persistent epo pattern caused the warm pool to form and then there was a feedback loop of sorts that persisted well into March. Imo, it's a stretch to be using current ssta conditions in the Pac and pulling out the 13-14 analog.