Winter 2025-26

[CAPE]

20 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The only wild card this winter appears to be if we get help from the EPO or PNA. Otherwise it's probably best to temper expectations.

And we have had 'help' in those domains in recent Nina winters. At this juncture I will be optimistic and side with persistence. I don't see any reason to think that won't be the case for at least a portion of the winter. The PDO? fuck it. It hasn't been favorable for years and we have still managed patterns that produced cold and some snow. I mean, fundamentally a -PDO is expected with cold ENSO. Historically that's how it works.

[WEATHER53]

This years spring and summer have traits of 1962, 1989, 2008 .

I think we get  20-30” this  year with an impressive 45 day mostly cold cycle, I think Dec is mostly mild 

 

[Bob Chill]

On 9/10/2025 at 7:53 PM, WxUSAF said:

Yeah 13-14 has some things going for it. 14-15 was a Nino. Neither had the water near Japan as boiling as it is this year however. 

The NE pac warm pool didn't get going until Dec and the PDO was favorable at the beginning of met winter. The persistent epo pattern caused the warm pool to form and then there was a feedback loop of sorts that persisted well into March. Imo, it's a stretch to be using current ssta conditions in the Pac and pulling out the 13-14 analog. 

[SnowenOutThere]

On 9/10/2025 at 10:34 PM, Rhino16 said:

Did it happen to be somewhat of a squall event type thing? I have images of a snow squall chase on the 21st of November, but that’s down on a mountaintop near Blacksburg, VA.

It was November 22nd and a more typical storm. Snow mixed in around nova for an hour or two before rain, I think the only places with real accumulations was Mount PSU (4in I think) and the catoctins (where I went ~6in). 

[katabatic]

It was November 22nd and a more typical storm. Snow mixed in around nova for an hour or two before rain, I think the only places with real accumulations was Mount PSU (4in I think) and the catoctins (where I went ~6in). 

That was a pretty good storm out in the Garrett County area as well. I ended up with exactly a foot.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

That was a pretty good storm out in the Garrett County area as well. I ended up with exactly a foot.

Yeah I drove up to the cabin for that storm and it was a nightmare on the roads.   We had a solid foot from it though it melted pretty quick.  

[Jebman]

It's gonnabe a 2013-2014 Winter in the DC metropolitan region. Get the diggin shovels ready. Get ready to be watching models for months.

[Steve25]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

It's gonnabe a 2013-2014 Winter in the DC metropolitan region. Get the diggin shovels ready. Get ready to be watching models for months.

Forget us grown snow weenies, let it happen for the kids! 10 years since our last legitimate snowstorm. That means there are tons of youngsters born around here that have never even experienced a real snowstorm. Shame! 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Forget us grown snow weenies, let it happen for the kids! 10 years since our last legitimate snowstorm. That means there are tons of youngsters born around here that have never even experienced a real snowstorm. Shame! 

A whole generation is growing up not knowing what a noreaster even is.  The horror!

[frd]

18 hours ago, Jebman said:

It's gonnabe a 2013-2014 Winter in the DC metropolitan region. Get the diggin shovels ready. Get ready to be watching models for months.

[bncho]

59 minutes ago, frd said:

this is a nicer looking forecast than 2024-25 this time last year.

[stormy]

Sometimes fall patterns can be harbingers for the coming winter.

1977 is an excellent example.

Low pressure over eastern NC. tomorrow with chilly high pressure wedging down from New England.......................  Can this become a habit as we slide into winter????

[Jebman]

On 9/13/2025 at 12:13 PM, frd said:

Well given this output, we just might need to upgrade the panic room. Damn that is so bad for the Western ski resorts. Mammoth may be bare ground all winter. I'll be begging for a reaping. Do me a rendition of being on the 105th Floor in the North Tower and goin down with the building on September 11 2001 while clinging to the outside trying to get some fresh air........

Sure I am terminally morbid about so many things lol.

[Jebman]

On 9/15/2025 at 5:51 AM, stormy said:

Sometimes fall patterns can be harbingers for the coming winter.

1977 is an excellent example.

Low pressure over eastern NC. tomorrow with chilly high pressure wedging down from New England.......................  Can this become a habit as we slide into winter????

That could be. I'd love to see another 1977 in the East, but with a massive side of 2013-2014.

I am just dying to see you guys get snowed in so many times while getting such frigid air, piling up the pack storm after storm after storm after storm, until your arms fall off from digging so much snow in a real life version of an incredible Jebman/George BM type low sun season with absolutely NO MERCY, snow so damn deep in the DC metropolitan region that shoveled canyons actually collapse from too much snow on the sides from piled up snow.

[WEATHER53]

On 9/15/2025 at 6:51 AM, stormy said:

Sometimes fall patterns can be harbingers for the coming winter.

1977 is an excellent example.

Low pressure over eastern NC. tomorrow with chilly high pressure wedging down from New England.......................  Can this become a habit as we slide into winter????

Very much agree.  Be nice to see today’s radar later on.  

[psuhoffman]

On 9/10/2025 at 7:01 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

 

On 9/10/2025 at 7:53 PM, WxUSAF said:

Yeah 13-14 has some things going for it. 14-15 was a Nino. Neither had the water near Japan as boiling as it is this year however. 

That’s one of the reasons I’m less sure of a total dreg outcome right now than I was heading into our last cold neutral/weak Nina/ horrific PDO winters, but keep in mind 2014 was the most extreme outcome of all similar analogs. Even if we got another 2014 “type” winter it would be extremely unlikely to result in that much snow.  That was an anomaly. Also, we’re not arriving at the warm pool through the same larger scale mechanism this time as @Bob Chill pointed out and that matters. SSTs can be just as much an effect as a cause.