Winter 2025-26

[Maestrobjwa]

So from what I'm reading...basically not much different than we've seen the last 10 years  I mean it's becoming the same old story year after year now. Last year was probably the "best" of the 10 years overall...and that was because of prolonged snow cover and areas in the south and east getting decent numbers from the two events we had--rather than there being even a median snow total for the season (at least at bwi). I'm almost ready ignore any tracking until we finally get a year where we can get something like we used to get occasionally.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 9/5/2025 at 3:11 PM, psuhoffman said:

 

There are outliers to every subset but Nina’s in general are colder and drier than other enso states lately. That produces less variance across our region due to meso scale climate factors (elevation, slight changes in latitude). So in general that equates to better for places further SE in our region and worse for places NW wrt “normal”

Man who would've thought our climo would reach a point where "north and west of the city" was no longer what it used to be, smh South is the place to be apparently Wake me up when @North Balti Zen cashes in. Maybe then that'll mean more of us can get something more substantial that year, lol

[Jebman]

39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man who would've thought our climo would reach a point where "north and west of the city" was no longer what it used to be, smh South is the place to be apparently Wake me up when @North Balti Zen cashes in. Maybe then that'll mean more of us can get something more substantial that year, lol

North Balti's gonna cash in this winter. So will you and nearly everyone else in this here sub.

[Eskimo Joe]

FOLKS  

 

 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FOLKS  

 

 

 

LOL classic

Good storm but a sleet-fest in the middle here, which was not forecast. I think the total was still around 20".

 

[dailylurker]

Just now, CAPE said:

 

LOL classic

Good storm but a sleet-fest in the middle here, which was not forecast. I think the total was still around 20".

 

I watched it like 3 times totally zoned out on the conditions lol

[Bob Chill]

1 month trend in the PDO region is actually not bad...

Early August 

 

Current 

 

EPS/GEFS/GEPS all show a bias towards upper level troughing near Japan over the next 2 weeks. Still way early and a long ways to go but with Nina enso conditions seeming likely this winter, a bathwater PDO region would be very problematic during met winter. If (and it's a big if) the -PDO collapses over the next 2 months, it would be a pretty big positive sign that winter could be interesting instead of soul crushing. 

Other than major blocking, which can't really be predicted until it's happening, there isn't much to get excited about irt a cold/snowy winter. Just pointing out something worth watching as we move through the next couple months. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

1 month trend in the PDO region is actually not bad...

Early August 

 

Current 

 

EPS/GEFS/GEPS all show a bias towards upper level troughing near Japan over the next 2 weeks. Still way early and a long ways to go but with Nina enso conditions seeming likely this winter, a bathwater PDO region would be very problematic during met winter. If (and it's a big if) the -PDO collapses over the next 2 months, it would be a pretty big positive sign that winter could be interesting instead of soul crushing. 

Other than major blocking, which can't really be predicted until it's happening, there isn't much to get excited about irt a cold/snowy winter. Just pointing out something worth watching as we move through the next couple months. 

 

Yeah, looking some better out there. NATL looking better as well.

[Bob Chill]

This is a good visual showing just how hostile the pdo has been since 2017. It's only one piece of the puzzle and no single index drives "it all" but it's also no coincidence that the last time it was friendly (2014-16) we had one of our best stretches of consecutive winters. 

In enso neutral and nina winters we need a good alignment in the Pac or it gets pretty hard to get things right around here with cold and winter wx. If things are going to work this winter a -EPO will be really important. Generally speaking, -EPOs don't come easy if at all when the PDO is strongly negative. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Found this research study (The Elevation-Dependence of Snowfall in the Appalachian Ridge and Valley Region of Northeastern Pennsylvania) examining the impacts on elevation dependence snowfall and the types of conditions that influence events to either be low in snowfall range with elevation or high. Definitely found it to be an interesting read and I'm sure the mets (and @psuhoffman) would enjoy it too. Here is the link (http://nwafiles.nwas.org/jom/articles/2017/2017-JOM8/2017-JOM8.pdf), also if any met would like to chime in I remember a particularly elevation dependent snowfall in late November last year and wonder how those conditions line up with the studies findings. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 9/6/2025 at 5:20 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

So from what I'm reading...basically not much different than we've seen the last 10 years  I mean it's becoming the same old story year after year now. Last year was probably the "best" of the 10 years overall...and that was because of prolonged snow cover and areas in the south and east getting decent numbers from the two events we had--rather than there being even a median snow total for the season (at least at bwi). I'm almost ready ignore any tracking until we finally get a year where we can get something like we used to get occasionally.

It's intensely demoralizing to realize we're likely staring yet another dead ratter winter in the face. I haven't hit climo snowfall in almost a decade.

[CAPE]

21 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's intensely demoralizing to realize we're likely staring yet another dead ratter winter in the face. I haven't hit climo snowfall in almost a decade.

Not hitting climo doesn't equate to a dead ratter though. An inch or less like a few years ago is a dead ratter. I mean, that could happen again but if the Pac ridge in more poleward and over AK we should get some cold shots and then its just a matter of timing a wave or 2. Most of the recent Ninas have have featured snowstorms, albeit better for the eastern areas wrt climo than NW locales. Mostly a function of NS dominance and tendency for more southern tracking disturbances to develop surface lows right at the coast/ a bit offshore.

[bncho]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's intensely demoralizing to realize we're likely staring yet another dead ratter winter in the face. I haven't hit climo snowfall in almost a decade.

I doubt a dead ratter... and you shouldn't be calling winter over in early September. Models can't predict things three weeks out, why should it do something different three months out?

[JenkinsJinkies]

13 hours ago, bncho said:

I doubt a dead ratter... and you shouldn't be calling winter over in early September. Models can't predict things three weeks out, why should it do something different three months out?

PSU accurately called 22-23 DOA in October of that year.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

PSU accurately called 22-23 DOA in October of that year.

I had a really bad feeling going into both 2019-20 and 2022-23 but things don’t look as hopeless right now. The JFM ONI was actually enso neutral those years and strongly -pdo enso neutral winters have been the WORST subset for us lately.  Ninos have been slightly better mostly because they’ve been colder. Enso neutral have been warmer but still dry, at least when what little cold was around. 
 

That said we need the PDO to improve somewhat. It can be negative but not -3 to -4 that’s nuts. 
 

If winter ends up enso neutral AND the pdo is below -2 we provably get another 2020, 2023 dead ratter.  But those two things aren’t written in stone…YET. 

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

PSU accurately called 22-23 DOA in October of that year.

Did he? I think his position(which I agree with) is the pattern in Fall(esp early) is not a reliable predictor of the upcoming predominant winter pattern. Unless one wants to simply go with climate models depicting a particular ENSO state/strength and look at historical outcomes. Last year would not have worked out based on that as it was a weak Nina which has always completely sucked in the greater DC area for snow.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Did he? I think his position(which I agree with) is the pattern in Fall(esp early) is not a reliable predictor of the upcoming predominant winter pattern. Unless one wants to simply go with climate models depicting a particular ENSO state/strength and look at historical outcomes. Last year would not have worked out based on that as it was a weak Nina which has always completely sucked in the greater DC area for snow.

He is giving me too much credit. It’s because people take one part of what someone says (if it confirms what they fear or want) and run with it. I did state in the fall leading into both those years that we had a very high chance at a total dead ratter winter. But it was based solely on the base state of the PDO and enso heading in and probabilities. I didn’t actually call TOD on those winters for sure until around Xmas. 

[wxdude64]

23 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's intensely demoralizing to realize we're likely staring yet another dead ratter winter in the face. I haven't hit climo snowfall in almost a decade.

I topped climo last year, last time was 2018-2019. 2022/2023 and 2023/24 were horrific years in the single digits. I am thinking we have things still moving around, a bit early to make an official prediction for upcoming winter. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

I topped climo last year, last time was 2018-2019. 2022/2023 and 2023/24 were horrific years in the single digits. I am thinking we have things still moving around, a bit early to make an official prediction for upcoming winter. 

We hit Average in this part of the State as well. 

[WxUSAF]

I would disagree with several points here

 

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I would disagree with several points here

 

Mike Masco is JB's son. 

[WxUSAF]

Not sure I agree here for a variety of reasons, but this is hopium I’d hit

 

[brooklynwx99]

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

[WxUSAF]

50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

Yeah 13-14 has some things going for it. 14-15 was a Nino. Neither had the water near Japan as boiling as it is this year however. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 9/6/2025 at 5:20 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

So from what I'm reading...basically not much different than we've seen the last 10 years  I mean it's becoming the same old story year after year now. Last year was probably the "best" of the 10 years overall...and that was because of prolonged snow cover and areas in the south and east getting decent numbers from the two events we had--rather than there being even a median snow total for the season (at least at bwi). I'm almost ready ignore any tracking until we finally get a year where we can get something like we used to get occasionally.

The only wild card this winter appears to be if we get help from the EPO or PNA. Otherwise it's probably best to temper expectations.

[LordBaltimore]

On 9/6/2025 at 7:48 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

FOLKS  

 

 

If a Miller A with 30" streaks happens and pier 32 isn't playing in the background then is it even really a big dog?

[Rhino16]

On 9/8/2025 at 2:18 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

I remember a particularly elevation dependent snowfall in late November last year and wonder how those conditions line up with the studies findings. 

Did it happen to be somewhat of a squall event type thing? I have images of a snow squall chase on the 21st of November, but that’s down on a mountaintop near Blacksburg, VA.

[IronTy]

12 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure I agree here for a variety of reasons, but this is hopium I’d hit

 

JD foretold this possibility like a month ago and he was poo-pood.  

 

ETA - JB also woofing on 13-14 and something about analogue severe weather in Europe.  

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

JD foretold this possibility like a month ago and he was poo-pood.  

 

ETA - JB also woofing on 13-14 and something about analogue severe weather in Europe.  

Apparently there is a South Pole stratwarm event that also happened in 13-14.  Long explanation at the severe weather EU site about how that could be a sign of what the pattern will be here this winter.  https://www.severe-weather.eu/category/global-weather/

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure I agree here for a variety of reasons, but this is hopium I’d hit

 

Last time we had a potential blob a storm came and destroyed it.