Winter 2025-26

[Maestrobjwa]

So from what I'm reading...basically not much different than we've seen the last 10 years  I mean it's becoming the same old story year after year now. Last year was probably the "best" of the 10 years overall...and that was because of prolonged snow cover and areas in the south and east getting decent numbers from the two events we had--rather than there being even a median snow total for the season (at least at bwi). I'm almost ready ignore any tracking until we finally get a year where we can get something like we used to get occasionally.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 9/5/2025 at 3:11 PM, psuhoffman said:

 

There are outliers to every subset but Nina’s in general are colder and drier than other enso states lately. That produces less variance across our region due to meso scale climate factors (elevation, slight changes in latitude). So in general that equates to better for places further SE in our region and worse for places NW wrt “normal”

Man who would've thought our climo would reach a point where "north and west of the city" was no longer what it used to be, smh South is the place to be apparently Wake me up when @North Balti Zen cashes in. Maybe then that'll mean more of us can get something more substantial that year, lol

[Jebman]

39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man who would've thought our climo would reach a point where "north and west of the city" was no longer what it used to be, smh South is the place to be apparently Wake me up when @North Balti Zen cashes in. Maybe then that'll mean more of us can get something more substantial that year, lol

North Balti's gonna cash in this winter. So will you and nearly everyone else in this here sub.

[Eskimo Joe]

FOLKS  

 

 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FOLKS  

 

 

 

LOL classic

Good storm but a sleet-fest in the middle here, which was not forecast. I think the total was still around 20".

 

[dailylurker]

Just now, CAPE said:

 

LOL classic

Good storm but a sleet-fest in the middle here, which was not forecast. I think the total was still around 20".

 

I watched it like 3 times totally zoned out on the conditions lol

[Bob Chill]

1 month trend in the PDO region is actually not bad...

Early August 

 

Current 

 

EPS/GEFS/GEPS all show a bias towards upper level troughing near Japan over the next 2 weeks. Still way early and a long ways to go but with Nina enso conditions seeming likely this winter, a bathwater PDO region would be very problematic during met winter. If (and it's a big if) the -PDO collapses over the next 2 months, it would be a pretty big positive sign that winter could be interesting instead of soul crushing. 

Other than major blocking, which can't really be predicted until it's happening, there isn't much to get excited about irt a cold/snowy winter. Just pointing out something worth watching as we move through the next couple months. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

1 month trend in the PDO region is actually not bad...

Early August 

 

Current 

 

EPS/GEFS/GEPS all show a bias towards upper level troughing near Japan over the next 2 weeks. Still way early and a long ways to go but with Nina enso conditions seeming likely this winter, a bathwater PDO region would be very problematic during met winter. If (and it's a big if) the -PDO collapses over the next 2 months, it would be a pretty big positive sign that winter could be interesting instead of soul crushing. 

Other than major blocking, which can't really be predicted until it's happening, there isn't much to get excited about irt a cold/snowy winter. Just pointing out something worth watching as we move through the next couple months. 

 

Yeah, looking some better out there. NATL looking better as well.

[Bob Chill]

This is a good visual showing just how hostile the pdo has been since 2017. It's only one piece of the puzzle and no single index drives "it all" but it's also no coincidence that the last time it was friendly (2014-16) we had one of our best stretches of consecutive winters. 

In enso neutral and nina winters we need a good alignment in the Pac or it gets pretty hard to get things right around here with cold and winter wx. If things are going to work this winter a -EPO will be really important. Generally speaking, -EPOs don't come easy if at all when the PDO is strongly negative. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Found this research study (The Elevation-Dependence of Snowfall in the Appalachian Ridge and Valley Region of Northeastern Pennsylvania) examining the impacts on elevation dependence snowfall and the types of conditions that influence events to either be low in snowfall range with elevation or high. Definitely found it to be an interesting read and I'm sure the mets (and @psuhoffman) would enjoy it too. Here is the link (http://nwafiles.nwas.org/jom/articles/2017/2017-JOM8/2017-JOM8.pdf), also if any met would like to chime in I remember a particularly elevation dependent snowfall in late November last year and wonder how those conditions line up with the studies findings. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 9/6/2025 at 5:20 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

So from what I'm reading...basically not much different than we've seen the last 10 years  I mean it's becoming the same old story year after year now. Last year was probably the "best" of the 10 years overall...and that was because of prolonged snow cover and areas in the south and east getting decent numbers from the two events we had--rather than there being even a median snow total for the season (at least at bwi). I'm almost ready ignore any tracking until we finally get a year where we can get something like we used to get occasionally.

It's intensely demoralizing to realize we're likely staring yet another dead ratter winter in the face. I haven't hit climo snowfall in almost a decade.

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's intensely demoralizing to realize we're likely staring yet another dead ratter winter in the face. I haven't hit climo snowfall in almost a decade.

Not hitting climo doesn't equate to a dead ratter though. An inch or less like a few years ago is a dead ratter. I mean, that could happen again but if the Pac ridge in more poleward and over AK we should get some cold shots and then its just a matter of timing a wave or 2. Most of the recent Ninas have have featured snowstorms, albeit better for the eastern areas wrt to climo than NW locales. Mostly a function of NS dominance and tendency for more southern tracking disturbances to develop surface lows right at the coast/ a bit offshore.