bluewave Posted Friday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:24 PM 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: but this is normal, our first heatwave usually happens around June 20th. Once it starts it won't be just one day of 90 either. The location of the upper low holds the key to our first 90°. If it gets out of the way like the 12z run today, then we’ll have our first 90° next week at the usual warm spots. More of a 0z solution then we’ll top out in the 80s. This is a pretty big jump in just one run. But models usually struggle with closed low solutions. 12z 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:39 PM 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The location of the upper low holds the key to our first 90°. If it gets out of the way like the 12z run today, then we’ll have our first 90° next week at the usual warm spots. More of a 0z solution then we’ll top out in the 80s. This is a pretty big jump in just one run. But models usually struggle with closed low solutions. 12z 0z oh that high in the 12z run is in a GREAT spot, there would be a downsloping westerly or northwesterly wind with a high in that position !! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Friday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:58 PM 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: The location of the upper low holds the key to our first 90°. If it gets out of the way like the 12z run today, then we’ll have our first 90° next week at the usual warm spots. More of a 0z solution then we’ll top out in the 80s. This is a pretty big jump in just one run. But models usually struggle with closed low solutions. 12z 0z Have to believe that 12Z type solution is going to set up sooner rather than later. Hard lean from me on first 90 at usual warm spots mid to late next week. Pattern is going to flip and hold very soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:19 PM LOL NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Just now, Brian5671 said: LOL NAM Looks good to me! Keep it up above route 80 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:21 PM 1 minute ago, FPizz said: Looks good to me! Keep it up above route 80 Yes !! Meanwhile bright and sunny now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Friday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:53 PM Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" storm total rainfall is likely. Some areas could see locally higher amounts where some flooding is possible. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail from tomorrow through early next week. Above normal temperatures will likely develop near the middle of next week. June looks to be warmer than normal on the CFSv2. However, just as had been the case for May, the AI guidance is notably cooler than the conventional models. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +5.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.688 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.5° (0.7° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Friday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:57 PM 37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL NAM The 3k NAM has been all over the place. A few runs ago it had the storm completely bypassing everyone to the south and east. The regular NAM is more in line with other models: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Friday at 08:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:59 PM Got to 80 - warmest since 5/17 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted Friday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:05 PM 45 minutes ago, FPizz said: Looks good to me! Keep it up above route 80 Yes please, don't need anymore rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Friday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:13 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted Friday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:37 PM 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: to be fair today and tomorrow aren't going to be mostly overcast, the sun looks like it's about to come out right now as a matter of fact. and we got the sun back yesterday around 6 pm and it was a gorgeous sunset. Big deal..an hour before sunset doesn't make up for days and days of clouds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Friday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:55 PM 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: oh that high in the 12z run is in a GREAT spot, there would be a downsloping westerly or northwesterly wind with a high in that position !! Maybe bonus Canadian wildfire smoke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted yesterday at 12:21 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:21 AM Today's Highs PHL: 79 New Brnswck: 79 EWR: 78 ACY: 78 TEB: 77 TTN: 77 LGA: 75 NYC: 75 BLM: 73 JFK: 72 ISP: 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM 70 today. Took the boat out briefly today, first time this year. Brutal start to the boating season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted yesterday at 01:29 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:29 AM oops 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted yesterday at 02:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:04 AM Drizzling now. Glad it held out til after Mets game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted yesterday at 02:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 AM looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 03:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:02 AM 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: looking good as long as it stays away from here (mostly) my allergies are already acting up, I really hate rain/humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM 5 hours ago, winterwarlock said: Big deal..an hour before sunset doesn't make up for days and days of clouds trust me I hate all this useless crap H20 time to wormhole it to the moon or any other world that lacks water. This planet already is 70% water, we don't need any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 03:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:04 AM 5 hours ago, Dark Star said: Maybe bonus Canadian wildfire smoke? smoke is definitely better than rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 03:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:04 AM 5 hours ago, Poker2015 said: Yes please, don't need anymore rain send it to a planet or moon that lacks water for all I care 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 03:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:05 AM 6 hours ago, Sundog said: The 3k NAM has been all over the place. A few runs ago it had the storm completely bypassing everyone to the south and east. The regular NAM is more in line with other models: there's not going to be 1+ rain here that's going to be in the Poconos and NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted yesterday at 03:06 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:06 AM Where is Kevin Costner? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 03:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:13 AM 6 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said: Where is Kevin Costner? I loved that movie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 03:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 AM Looks like a cyanobacteria infestation has popped up near Stony Brook, I knew all this excessive water was going to cause major problems. wow near 90 degrees by next Thursday absolutely awesome, can't wait to get this crap outta here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted yesterday at 05:39 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:39 AM That is some crazy heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Had a solid flash and bang of thunder around 4:00 am. Woke up the baby and the dog. Cleared out for now with some decent winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago My remote AWN in Wantage NJ has 1.85 since midnight,, probably a bit less but close. Added NJ and NYS mesonet climate network maps past 12 hours. Representative. Click for clarity if interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 1.89" since the start time at 12:52am which makes 8.66" for the month. Still raining just under a half inch per hour rate, 57/55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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