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May 2025 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah doesn’t look torchy, but AN. Driven by nighttime temps too.

mm ... there's a signal for AN+, June 2 -5th 

It's not overwhelming,  granted, but it is above N/S nonetheless.  We'll see.   I don't have any qualms about it not occurring and ending up fake - it's been the trend all spring that warm signals just don't happen anyway.  jesus -    But just being objective about the guidance aspects.  

The operational 00z sets the 500 mb table for a PNA modal expulsion at mid levels, and then the 06z actually has continuity in that idea for a change, while also then filling in the 850 mb +T anomaly. 

The operational ECM and CMC not seeing it, admittedly... so there's that.   What's interesting - if you're a tedious nerd with nothing better to do this morning like myself ... - is that the operational GFS fits the EPS teleconnection much better that either operational run fits their mean.  

Point is...there's a non-zero (better than N/S ) signal in there that I'm sure we'll summarily see abolished now that I'm posting this ...

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On 5/25/2025 at 7:10 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yep I remember that one. We had like 6” of rain. 

Oct 22-23, 2014
CG plot and IR attached.

Blue Hill 6.18" for the storm.

One thing I recall about this event is the gusty/bursty winds well before the precip stared, even inland.  Why?  B/c there was CAPE/lifted index negative in the region as the storm approached and the gradient increased.  Much more efficient mixing down of the BL winds in such an environment, which is rarely seen pre-nor'easter in New England!

 

cg141023.png

tstmnoreaster2.gif

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

May had some nice days mixed in but overall it wasn't anything to write home about. Kind of sucked actually but its still a spring month in New England so expecting stretches of upper 70's and 80's is just unrealistic.  

Some people here  seem to have convinced themselves that SNE is in northern Florida...

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6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Some people here  seem to have convinced themselves that SNE is in northern Florida...

Part of me gets it...we've had plenty of May's before and Memorial Day Weekends where we're basking in the 80's but we've also had our share of crappy ones. But with many longing for consistently warmer and nicer weather by now we expect the anomalous warmth to be the rule versus the exception. 

 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Part of me gets it...we've had plenty of May's before and Memorial Day Weekends where we're basking in the 80's but we've also had our share of crappy ones. But with many longing for consistently warmer and nicer weather by now we expect the anomalous warmth to be the rule versus the exception. 

 

Sort of like someone insisting November is a winter month...

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