2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[Snowcrazed71]

So... I do know there has been some snow at the highest elevations of Vermont.... But this system seems like it could be our first region wide snowfall..... At least as of now (not a forecast, but bothe the GFS & the Euro have this system for 11/7-8 timeframe)

https://x.com/Lclimateguy/status/1982046984589463849?t=jIhEOUA4tOpT0f5OArK1UA&s=19

[MJO812]

DT Preliminary Winter Outlook

[MJO812]

Steve D winter forecast
https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2025-through-february-2026/

[dendrite]

40-80” here would be terrible to near average.

[weathafella]

Steve D needs to brush up on his knowledge of climatology 

[dryslot]

40-80" is a pretty big spread.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Lol 20-40" equates to near to above normal snowfall in interior SNE including ORH on that map from Steve D.  He's obviously more focused on his area.  

[mahk_webstah]

It is always better to forecast %above or below normal vs specific amounts over such a diverse area

[Hazey]

Looks like he’s calling for average to below average snowfall for most regions. Seems like a prudent call at this stage.

[WinterWolf]

12 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Lol 20-40" equates to near to above normal snowfall in interior SNE including ORH on that map from Steve D.  He's obviously more focused on his area.  

Ya, For Interior SNE…20-40 is below normal. But his zone there is huge. So for some areas to the southwest maybe that’s accurate…otherwise he’s off. Lol. 

[leo2000]

The big reason why I am optimistic about this upcoming winter is the north Pacific warm blob. The last time this happened back in in 2013 we all know what followed. 

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, leo2000 said:

The big reason why I am optimistic about this upcoming winter is the north Pacific warm blob. The last time this happened back in in 2013 we all know what followed. 

The 2025 rendition of the warm Pacific may signify something else.  

Not directing this at you, per se, but to the general audience. The warm Pacific "blob" as it's called is not forcing patterns - nor subsequently constructing the winter pattern biases. 

The blob exists due to a long duration applied wind stresses, distributing and redistributing warm surface mass in the ongoing quasi-coupled atmospheric-oceanic system.  That forcing disributes warmth vs upwelling and cooling ..etc, over time,  and it is a shallow thermal distribution response ( SSTs ).  We've spent time explaining this in the past, and to the same group of individuals that frequent this social media ... but given some time ... we're back to reading posts that sound like the blob is going to cause the winter pattern? - false if that's the thinking. 

What needs to be done is a study that correlates the blob occurrences in both space, time, and amplitude, against the preceding hemisphere's synoptic footprint.   It's far in a way more likely that 2013's Pacific thermal layout/phenomenon is connected to a pattern that was going on, and led to both:  creating the blob,  while also ensuing the Chicago record cold that winter.  The pattern created both.   Not the other way around.

That said, there may be some predictive usefulness in using the warm vs cool Pacific distribution whence any such correlation can be assessed. 

In 2025, the Pacific looks similar to 2013 - which means, given the above facets, there has likely been similarities in the distribution of surface oceanic stressing patterns to date.  But here's the problem: Does it persist?   That's the key question.  Unfortunately, nothing about 2013 vs 2025 predicts that very clearly.   Having nothing else to really go on at that point, ...yeah, it's not unreasonable to look for that persistence - but there really shouldn't be any presumption there, either. For one, different synoptic variances may lend to similar distributions, where given both warm years, one variance lends to a 2013's winter pattern, but the other does not. So if-so variances would also need to be defined. 

[Typhoon Tip]

This is a very linear approach so tfwiw - but to help elucidate the concern in using 2013 as analog, let's look at the 2013 WPO, and compare it to recency.  Below on the left is the 2013-2014 WPO ( provided by CPC), and on the right, 2024-present

2013    1   0.07		2024    3   0.97
2013    2   1.49		2024    4   0.73
2013    3   0.59		2024    5  -0.27
2013    4  -1.86		2024    6  -1.29
2013    5  -1.13		2024    7  -0.77
2013    6  -0.47		2024    8   1.06
2013    7  -0.88		2024    9   1.38
2013    8  -0.17		2024   10   0.91
2013    9   1.93		2024   11  -0.20
2013   10  -0.09		2024   12  -0.33
2013   11  -0.04		2025    1   1.02
2013   12  -2.01		2025    2   0.32
2014    1   0.54		2025    3   0.77
2014    2  -1.37		2025    4  -0.83
2014    3  -0.43		2025    5  -0.49
2014    4  -1.36		2025    6   1.27
2014    5  -0.85		2025    7  -0.58
2014    6  -0.30		2025    8  -0.31
2014    7  -1.63		2025    9   1.22
2014    8  -0.77
2014    9  -1.23
2014   10  -0.32
2014   11   0.13
2014   12  -0.13

 

graphically ...

 

What sticks out is that the WPO was predominately negative in the 2013-2014 period, but has been predominately positive lately.  That particular index is quite important as it loads the Pacific ... We can root it ultimately back to Asia for that matter.  All that, and also feed-backs  (constructive or destructive interference ) from the MJO frequency... which also has at least a say in the ENSO distribution... Quagmire that ultimately giggidies or glorifies our winter tendencies over N/A.  

But, that is a big difference in that particularly circulation mode/manifold comparing back whence to now ... So it really - for me - adds to the uncertainty if not doubt.

[FXWX]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 2025 rendition of the warm Pacific may signify something else.  

Not directing this at you, per se, but to the general audience. The warm Pacific "blob" as it's called is not forcing patterns - nor subsequently constructing the winter pattern biases. 

The blob exists due to a long duration applied wind stresses, distributing and redistributing warm surface mass in the ongoing quasi-coupled atmospheric-oceanic system.  That forcing disributes warmth vs upwelling and cooling ..etc, over time,  and it is a shallow thermal distribution response ( SSTs ).  We've spent time explaining this in the past, and to the same group of individuals that frequent this social media ... but given some time ... we're back to reading posts that sound like the blob is going to cause the winter pattern? - false if that's the thinking. 

What needs to be done is a study that correlates the blob occurrences in both space, time, and amplitude, against the preceding hemisphere's synoptic footprint.   It's far in a way more likely that 2013's Pacific thermal layout/phenomenon is connected to a pattern that was going on, and led to both:  creating the blob,  while also ensuing the Chicago record cold that winter.  The pattern created both.   Not the other way around.

That said, there may be some predictive usefulness in using the warm vs cool Pacific distribution whence any such correlation can be assessed. 

In 2025, the Pacific looks similar to 2013 - which means, given the above facets, there has likely been similarities in the distribution of surface oceanic stressing patterns to date.  But here's the problem: Does it persist?   That's the key question.  Unfortunately, nothing about 2013 vs 2025 predicts that very clearly.   Having nothing else to really go on at that point, ...yeah, it's not unreasonable to look for that persistence - but there really shouldn't be any presumption there, either. For one, different synoptic variances may lend to similar distributions, where given both warm years, one variance lends to a 2013's winter pattern, but the other does not. So if-so variances would also need to be defined. 

1,000%