2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

1. It looks like after quite a negative start (~-0.9 for Jan 1-8), we’re most likely headed toward an ~+0.5 PNA for Jan, which will keep the long streak alive of -ENSO -PNA Decembers transitioning to +PNA Januaries that stretches all of the way back to 1983-4. I’ll revisit this when we get the final Jan #.

2. Well, the models did very well in predicting an obliteration of the old record long met. winter phase 6 MJO, which was 13 days (1/30-2/11/2011): the one this month was 17 days as it ran from Jan 5th through Jan 21st:

@donsutherland1@40/70 Benchmark

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. It looks like after quite a negative start (~-0.9 for Jan 1-8), we’re most likely headed toward an ~+0.5 PNA for Jan, which will keep the long streak alive of -ENSO -PNA Decembers transitioning to +PNA Januaries that stretches all of the way back to 1983-4. I’ll revisit this when we get the final Jan #.

2. Well, the models did very well in predicting an obliteration of the old record long met. winter phase 6 MJO, which was 13 days (1/30-2/11/2011): the one this month was 17 days as it ran from Jan 5th through Jan 21st:

@donsutherland1@40/70 Benchmark

@qg_omegaSee.... +PNA January...like I said, guidance was wrong.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The 10-year snow drought is over: https://x.com/amarkowitzWX/status/2015592086276313584

[EastonSN+]

If phase 1 in a la nina in February is warm we get there Feb1. Of course there will be a lag.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

If phase 1 in a la nina in February is warm we get there Feb1. Of course there will be a lag.