2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2000-2001 central park had 35 inches. I believe the 30 year average at that time was approx 27 so  slightly above average.

2008-2009 central park had 27.6, which at that time I believe that average was approx 28 so basically average. 

2007-2008 was only 11.9 so a dude.

So IF we only took those three examples an equal chance of above, average and below snowfall.

I went 19-29" for you guys, so kind of the middle of those years.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I went 19-29" for you guys, so kind of the middle of those years.

I technically live in New England. However my climate is much closer to central park than Boston.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So far since November, we’ve seen -WPO (Aleutian ridge regime) driven cold. This is in contrast to the -EPO (Alaskan ridge regime) driven cold we saw last winter….. @SnowGoose69 @donsutherland1 @bluewave
 

Strengthening La Niña background state with the falling AAM heading into mid-December leading to the very amplified Aleutian Ridge and -PNA trough.

 

[Terpeast]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Strengthening La Niña background state with the falling AAM heading into mid-December leading to the very amplified Aleutian Ridge and -PNA trough.

 

Trending down, yes, but the thing is AAM forecasts have been biased too negative over the past 30 days. When correcting for that, AAM may be closer to neutral. 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

That's a frigid look just starting at the end of the eps last night... -WPO loading Canada with cold air. With SW US ridging is going to relay that SE... I'll roll the dice with that anytime. 

I would think air that cold will drain south and east and cause wintry chances even if you aren't under the blue negative height anomalies.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

After that, do you think the winter returns, or are we going to torch in January and February, like in 2016-17 and 2022-23?

 Or will Jan be cold like in 1984, 1985, 2009, 2011, 2014, and 2022?

Or will Jan be within a few degrees of normal (in the NE at least) like 1997, 1999, and 2013?

 So, Jan has had 3 times as many cold vs warm for the analogs since 1983-4 that I’m looking at.

 OTOH, Feb has a better chance to torch in the NE imho as only 2014 of the analogs I’m looking at was solidly cold there vs 6 being cold in Jan. In Feb, these were mild: 1984, 1997, 1999, 2009, 2017, and 2023.

 So, in Feb, 6 times as many were mild vs cold. That compares to 3 times as many cold vs mild in Jan. Two very different months on average.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If that’s correct, a cold look for sure. A coastal storm pattern, not so much (++NAO/flat PNA). Maybe fast moving, progressive clippers? 
 

EDIT: @EastonSN+ Snowfall in -WPO patterns vs -EPO patterns is a good question. @donsutherland1 is the man to ask about that

Here's the data for New York City:

Below are the composite 500 mb anomalies for WPO<0 December cases for 4" or more daily snowfall. To date, the guidance does not suggest the kind of pattern shown below.

 

It should also be noted that snowfalls tend to be light during the first half of December when the AO/NAO/PNA are all negative. 

[GaWx]

 Just like yesterday, the GEFS and EPS disagree on how long the MJO will stay in phase 8:

GEFS: only 6 days though it returns for rd 2 on 12/18:

But the EPS, which recently has been much steadier and has been verifying better than GEFS since phase 7, once again is going with a very long phase 8 (16+ days, longest in 50 years): you can’t place an MJO better than this in Dec for E US cold lovers (and it looks to be cold the next 10 days per models though one must remember that there are always other factors to consider due to the complexity of the atmosphere):