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Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here


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17 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Another dry frontal passage.

Zzzzzzz….

Spit a little rain here. Just enough to wet the surface briefly. Breezy, cool today before warmer wx returns. ZZZZ is spot on. Hoping for a little more action towards mid Oct.

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14 hours ago, Crowbar said:

This sums up the weather here in Central Ohio for the forseeable future:

a cartoon of homer simpson laying on a couch with the word boring written on the floor

Yep.  Although that rain we got from the hurricane remnants did wonders to green up lawns again.  I actually had to cut my grass and bag clippings last week.   First time in probably 6 or 7 weeks.    Do have to admit we had a hell of a severe storm season in Ohio with record # of tornados, so maybe this calm is the balancing act for that.

If that saying about the rubber band effect is true... this winter should be epic.   Of course there may still be a lot of stretch left in that band.  

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46 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Flying into Orlando tomorrow morning to "chase" Milton.

My wife HS friend lives in Sarasota.  Maybe I could convince them for you to be a house sitter ... ;) :lmao:

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1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Looks like the CME may be arriving soon. Bz has gone quite negative and proton flux is way up.

Yep, now we wait to see how long the strongest storming lasts. May very well be on the decline once it reaches nighttime across CONUS. But maybe not! 

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NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024

             Oct 10       Oct 11       Oct 12
00-03UT       2.00         7.67 (G4)    5.33 (G1)
03-06UT       2.67         8.00 (G4)    5.00 (G1)
06-09UT       1.67         7.33 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       2.00         6.67 (G3)    4.33     
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    6.33 (G2)    4.33     
15-18UT       6.67 (G3)    6.33 (G2)    5.33 (G1)
18-21UT       8.33 (G4)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       7.67 (G4)    5.33 (G1)    4.33     

The 3 hour window from 1200 - 1500 UT averages out to 3.33 right now so if anything it is either smaller or later than expected.
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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I was looking up current snowfall drought figures, and for Cincinnati, why does it show an ending date of September 26, 2024? I can assure you there was not 6" of snow on September 27. Hopefully, this nonsense gets resolved.

image.png.b2cc10e5ac56f94aa29a91818f493016.png

 

I'm sure cmh is just as ugly.   But damn, 3650 would be 10 years....so their pretty close to hitting that.   Even I didn't realize how bad the futility has been.   I guess if there's anything good about these long strings of dumpster fire winters, its that our expectations are so low we're all pretty easy to please moving forward.    

No idea what to expect this winter.   The only positive I see for this winter is the anecdotal argument that eventually something has gotta break our way, and maybe that'll be this winter.   The negatives are many but I wonder if the drought is going to  add more fuel on the futility fire.

 I no longer care about enso, teleconnections, analogs, or any long term forecast, they've all been trash indicators for long term winter forecasts.   It's all a crapshoot and the only question is whether this losing streak has finally run it's course.    My guess?.... not yet.  

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

I'm sure cmh is just as ugly.   But damn, 3650 would be 10 years....so their pretty close to hitting that.   Even I didn't realize how bad the futility has been.   I guess if there's anything good about these long strings of dumpster fire winters, its that our expectations are so low we're all pretty easy to please moving forward.    

No idea what to expect this winter.   The only positive I see for this winter is the anecdotal argument that eventually something has gotta break our way, and maybe that'll be this winter.   The negatives are many but I wonder if the drought is going to  add more fuel on the futility fire.

 I no longer care about enso, teleconnections, analogs, or any long term forecast, they've all been trash indicators for long term winter forecasts.   It's all a crapshoot and the only question is whether this losing streak has finally run it's course.    My guess?.... not yet.  

3519 days since the last calendar day with 6" of snowfall, which is slightly longer than the streak indicated for Cincy (but should be slightly shorter if that one didn't stop counting on September 26). Although, it does claim you had an absolutely astounding 6,335-day drought which ended on February 3, 1948.

image.png.0569e55029ee6b9a6315b20c71d0163b.png

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On 10/7/2024 at 7:59 PM, bowtie` said:

Did you bring your wife so you can have that all important spot report from another balcony?

not this time, but it would have been helpful to have had an above ground level report.

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