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Rocktober Obs/DISCO


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2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Crazy day tornado wise in my old area in FL, 11 touchdowns in Martin County and 17 in St Lucie County alone; and these were not the usual low top spinners we normally see there will be a few EF2 and EF3 tornadoes

These were big boys too. I think that might be the most impressive part of Milton.

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10 hours ago, dendrite said:

43.6°

Still struggling to make it into 30s. It’ll be another late first freeze. 

interesting signal in the late mid and extended range.  it's been on the guidance for a while ... but it's not exactly an exciting facet, either, so -

but the indian summer climatology is here, about 3 weeks earlier than the more typical time of year whence seasonal regression typically occurs, late oct through mid novie.  it's interesting - sort of - that here we are in the fervent popularity of climate concerns, yet we're moving transition events sooner?  

anyway, it may be more identifiable in the pattern structure, but today's cool shot cycles out, then there is bigger one early next week with only modest recovery in between.   the one early next week may in fact lay down an early snow from upstate ny, up the st l and eastern ontario.  as a consequence, we end up sub 540 dm hydrostats for 48 hours from the eastern gl, n ov, and ne regions.  should wind ssettle off, we don't just frost at night but we rim ponds with ice and brick the top soil if these gfs renditions play out with that.   the euro and ggem are on board, more than less...

after that, particularly in the gfs ensemble system and the operational ( though the euro is not far off ) have an impressive l/w rollout and we balm big time. 

by convention, the indian summer typically happens after the first seasonal suggestion ...  i'm just making conjecture here that not all indian summers are very identifiable - they come nuanced, with some subtly suggestive if not missed altogether, where other autumns have some more coherent.  this transition over the next week between two froster air masses, followed by some 4 or 5 days worth of 564+ dm hydrostat with dry wsw deep layer continental flow seems like a nuanced version of the indian summer.

the most illustrated i can ever recall was just recently in 2020, when an october 30 snow was followed by 70 to 80 f between nov 5 and 10th

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2 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Crazy day tornado wise in my old area in FL, 11 touchdowns in Martin County and 17 in St Lucie County alone; and these were not the usual low top spinners we normally see there will be a few EF2 and EF3 tornadoes

 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

These were big boys too. I think that might be the most impressive part of Milton.

Big ones, throwing big shit around...

image.thumb.jpeg.4b47d2b18f8d5ed6e9dbe34bf37aec21.jpeg

image.thumb.jpeg.d33abaaa8d7a0f4eb295a547025016a2.jpeg

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

10 weeks until days get longer. 

And the cold gets stronger . . .

First 32 of the season, almost 3 weeks later than average.  More to come next week.  Today's wind will pull down some more leaves, but the big drop came Saturday-Monday.  We're at about 75% drop; ash is bare and white birch almost the same, maples and yellow birch at 30-90% drop, oaks dragging as usual, mostly still green.

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