October 2024

[bluewave]

That GFS OP is a big outlier among its ensembles.

 

[Allsnow]

No rain on the 12z euro 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No rain on the 12z euro 

If this turns into reality we are solidly in record territory for lack of rainfall for a calendar month and extended dry periods.

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

Dear God no! October snow brings no snow during winter. Don't want another 2011/2012 redo. 

[psv88]

71 and beautiful 

[the_other_guy]

22 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dear God no! October snow brings no snow during winter. Don't want another 2011/2012 redo. 

Like 65 degrees. I think we are safe from that

[IrishRob17]

9 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Some nice diurnal temperature swings here the last few days:

Thu: 29/58

Fri: 29/67

Sat: 31/70(forecast)

Made to 71 for the high here. 

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That GFS OP is a big outlier among its ensembles.

 

CFS is buying into a more favorable pattern for the East for mid November.

[steve392]

Nobody posting the gfs model for the Halloween snow storm for nj??? Lol

[Allsnow]

Cold in November is useless in the new climate 

[FPizz]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

But we don't live in the southwest. This "perfect" weather will eventually become a big problem. 

When is eventually?  Its needs to go on a lot longer for that to happen.  If it was summer it would be a lot worse, but now it means pretty much nothing other than some people need to water gardens and a heightened risk of a forest fire. 

[donsutherland1]

The ongoing warming trend will continue into early next week. Tomorrow will again see temperatures top out at 70° or above in much of the region. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern in place, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Any cool shots during that time would likely be brief.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 19 was 0.02" in 1886 and 1947). At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace through 1886. In addition, today is Philadelphia's 21st consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (18th highest). The record streak of 29 days during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged. Almost all of the region is now in DO (abnormally dry) conditions. Southern New Jersey, Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania are in D1 (moderate drought) conditions with some areas of D2 (severe drought conditions).

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, the expansive area of D0 conditions in the region will evolve into D1 conditions and the area of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey, and parts of Delaware and Maryland will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -4.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.673 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.5° (1.6° above normal).

[lee59]

Warmth for the remainder of the month does not look quite as impressive as it did a few days ago. Meanwhile a beautiful high of 70 degrees today and now down to 49.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

New Brnswck: 74
EWR: 73
TEB: 73
TTN: 73
PHL: 73
LGA: 72
ACY: 71
NYC: 71
ISP: 69
BLM: 69
JFK: 66

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Warmth for the remainder of the month does not look quite as impressive as it did a few days ago. Meanwhile a beautiful high of 70 degrees today and now down to 49.

I think the warmth for the next few days looks as impressive as it always has. Still looks likely that we're gonna see low 80s here Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see warm spots get as high as 83. 

Maybe after that (starting Thursday) the cooldown looks a little more impressive than it did a few days ago. High temps might stay in the 60s for most of the rest of the month, but it's possible we'll warm back up to the low 70s for the last couple days of the month. Overall much warmer than normal from now until the end of the month. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, CCM said:

Why are the operational models struggling immensely to get a handle on the upcoming pattern? The run-to-run swings are insane, and not just in fantasy range either.

The GFS is the only operational model that runs beyond 240 hrs. The other models have a control run and an ensemble mean. So we use the ensemble means to put together a long range forecast. But even the ensemble means have had a cold bias in the long range. The GFS is prone to fantasy snowstorms after 240 hrs but the ensemble mean doesn’t have this error. Remember in recent winters how the big snowstorm was always 2 weeks away on the GFS OP. So this is why we use ensemble means in the long range.

New run 60s to possible 70s near the end of the month when the average high is only around 59°. More in line with the EPS and GEFS.

 

Old run fantasy snowstorm

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

No rain on the euro or the gfs into November 

 

drought is going to get worst 

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No rain on the euro or the gfs into November 

 

drought is going to get worst 

Ditto for the GEPS. Dry as far as the eye can see. It has been so anomalously dry since late August it’s not funny. It seems we have gone into a dry feedback cycle, something we really haven’t seen in the northeast in a very long time. If we get to the end of November and it’s still status quo, it’s probably a real bad sign for precip this winter. Patterns this anomalous usually don’t magically do a 180 and flip come December

[lee59]

40 degrees this morning, good radiational cooling

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No rain on the euro or the gfs into November 

 

drought is going to get worst 

At least this happened after the peak of the warm season. 2022 was the 2nd driest summer on record at Newark. It allowed them to go into 3rd place for most 100° days.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966	4.46	0
2	2022	4.87	0
3	1949	5.68	0
4	1957	5.69	0
5	1965	5.83	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1993	9	0
2	1949	8	0
3	2022	6	0
-	1953	6	0
5	1988	5	0
-	1966	5	0

[Volcanic Winter]

Down to 36 again for me, tying my fall low for the third time. The radiational cooling is significant at my location. I drive a few minutes east to the parkway and often warm up 6/7 degrees. 

[IrishRob17]

After a low of 32, should see another 40 degree swing in temps today. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

After a low of 32, should see another 40 degree swing in temps today. 

Looks like the 2nd and 3rd greatest October daily temperature range for your area back to 1997.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=MGJ&v=largest&month=oct&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

After a low of 32, should see another 40 degree swing in temps today. 

We are seeing huge diurnal swings (similar to the desert SW) because of the drought pattern over the last few months. Soil moisture is way, way below normal. Dry ground, low humidity, radiates heat very easily, unlike saturated ground which retains it in the boundary layer

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are seeing huge diurnal swings (similar to the desert SW) because of the drought pattern over the last few months. Soil moisture is way, way below normal. Dry ground, low humidity, radiates heat very easily, unlike saturated ground which retains it 

Correct. I'd like to think that most here understand that. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are seeing huge diurnal swings (similar to the desert SW) because of the drought pattern over the last few months. Soil moisture is way, way below normal. Dry ground, low humidity, radiates heat very easily, unlike saturated ground which retains it in the boundary layer

We need some sort of stalled front or a big nor easter to turn things around...neither looks likely for the foreseeable future.

[IrishRob17]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the 2nd and 3rd greatest October daily temperature range for your area back to 1997.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=MGJ&v=largest&month=oct&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

For that top spot you can see while the '22 drought was improving at that point it was still pretty dry up here. 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We need some sort of stalled front or a big nor easter to turn things around...neither looks likely for the foreseeable future.

A drought is the one thing we've managed to avoid in this climate, but perhaps not anymore. Models show little to no rain next 2 weeks with warm weather.  

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

For that top spot you can see while the '22 drought was improving at that point it was still pretty dry up here. 

At least the 80° heat will feel more comfortable with such low dews and humidity. We would probably be talking 95-100 if this was back during the summer. But this should allow the vegetation and soil moisture to dry out further with future drought monitor updates.

 

[Stormlover74]

8 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I think the warmth for the next few days looks as impressive as it always has. Still looks likely that we're gonna see low 80s here Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see warm spots get as high as 83. 

Maybe after that (starting Thursday) the cooldown looks a little more impressive than it did a few days ago. High temps might stay in the 60s for most of the rest of the month, but it's possible we'll warm back up to the low 70s for the last couple days of the month. Overall much warmer than normal from now until the end of the month. 

And even mid to upper 60s will be above average by next week. I think we're at least +7 the remainder of the month finishing +3 to 3.5 overall (at ewr)