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14 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

Could you imagine if there was some kind of tropical system It could’ve tapped  into oh boy

Yeah, parts of the Northeast can make a run on 100” of precipitation since last July as we approach the peak of the hurricane in September. 
 

Data for July 1, 2023 through July 21, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 88.40
CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 87.54
CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 86.61
NY WEST POINT COOP 85.89
CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 85.18
CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 85.02
CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 84.90
CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 84.89
NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 84.77
CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 83.62
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77 / 67 (dewpoints rising)..  Cleared from yesterday, what will likely be the driest, and warmest day of the next 5.   Upper 80s to low 90s today in the warm spots.  Scattered showers possible later.  Week looks to include showers/storms chances each day,very humid and remain mostly cloudy, keeping temps in the 80s/70s most days.  Drier but still not completely by the weekend as the ridge builds north of us.  Warmer - hotter by 29th.  Western heat building in north and east, onshore flow keeps the hottest inland as it looks now, but an overall hotter look from the 29th and beyond.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Has the ridge north look / onshore component with stronger heat north and inland initially in day 7 - 10. Could be continued somewhat stagnant flow Humid/Hot and ran chances.  Atlantic ridge continues to stay anchored and expand in periods.  Ridge pushing east of HI has weaker trough into the or off of the WC.

 

test8.gif

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On 7/20/2024 at 7:55 AM, bluewave said:

With a break in the 95° to 100° heat in the forecast, Hightstown in Mercer County only needs 2 more 95° days for the new all time record for a year. The previous record was set in 2002.  The sea breeze influence has been so strong that places like Newark on the bay have been lagging behind. Harrison a little further from the bay made it to 101° during this most recent heatwave while Newark maxed out at 99°.
 

Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2002 17 0
2 2024 16 168
- 1955 16 8
3 1953 14 0
4 2021 13 0
- 2018 13 1
- 2016 13 2
- 2010 13 4
- 1988 13 0
- 1949 13 0
5 2022 12 2
- 1999 12 0
- 1944 12 1


 

Data for January 1, 2024 through July 20, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 16
PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 13
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 12
EWING 3 WNW COOP 11
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 11
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 10
Trenton Area ThreadEx 10
SEABROOK FARMS COOP 9
HARRISON COOP 9
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 8
MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 7
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 7
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 7
ESTELL MANOR COOP 7
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 7
Newark Area ThreadEx 7
New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 7


 

Data for July 1, 2024 through July 20, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101
HARRISON COOP 101
TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 99
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99
Newark Area ThreadEx 99
PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 99

Amazing.  Newark usually is one of the "hot spots" but it is east enough for sea breeze effects.

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Generally fair and near normal readings will prevail through the week. Some showers or thundershowers could become likely toward midweek.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -5.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.152 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Amazing.  Newark usually is one of the "hot spots" but it is east enough for sea breeze effects.

JFK has only been able to make it to 91° which is the 6th coolest max by July 21st.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1948-07-21 85 198
2 2009-07-21 86 0
3 1951-07-21 87 2
4 1967-07-21 89 0
5 2023-07-21 90 0
- 2007-07-21 90 0
- 1979-07-21 90 0
- 1972-07-21 90 0
- 1960-07-21 90 1
6 2024-07-21 91 0
- 2014-07-21 91 0
- 2004-07-21 91 0
- 1985-07-21 91 0
- 1976-07-21 91 0
- 1975-07-21 91 0
- 1973-07-21 91 0
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74 / 67 looks like 4 days of clouds got in the way, rain / storm chances each day and a 4 day total that should see a widespread >1-3 inches and higher in some spots.    Atlantic ridge keeping a hung out boundary / front nearby with numerous popup slow moving showers/rain.  Some breaks in the clouds Tue  could push it near 90 but looks cloudy and humid.  Rain focus on Mon PM - night / Wed.  Beyond there as we head into this weekend Fri (7/26) drier but still wouldnt think we have a completely dry weekend.  Hotter look once to the 29th as more stronger heat from the west pushes north and east.  Onshore component / southerly flow keeps it humid with rain chances - not a dry pattern.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

JFK has only been able to make it to 91° which is the 6th coolest max by July 21st.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1948-07-21 85 198
2 2009-07-21 86 0
3 1951-07-21 87 2
4 1967-07-21 89 0
5 2023-07-21 90 0
- 2007-07-21 90 0
- 1979-07-21 90 0
- 1972-07-21 90 0
- 1960-07-21 90 1
6 2024-07-21 91 0
- 2014-07-21 91 0
- 2004-07-21 91 0
- 1985-07-21 91 0
- 1976-07-21 91 0
- 1975-07-21 91 0
- 1973-07-21 91 0

 

Was there a period where JFK was using hourly obs and had no inter hour (low/highs) earlier this month and part of June? I noticed on the website i follow until last Thu or Fri, it was not reporting the 6 hour inter hour maxes and mins.  The persistent and dominant southerly flow this season the main culprit.  

 

 

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