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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May be the highest DPs among ASOS I ever recall...

KOWD is 90/79 ( for a HI of 106)

KASH is likely a erroneous ... not sure.  81

But KFIT at 77 is extraordinary for that site!

KBDL 77...   KORH 75 is exception for that location.  KBED 87/76

Yes.. ORH sensor has notoriously run low on dews for years. It’s got something to with citing on tarmac 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

certainly could be a focus. Have to see how everything develops and evolves. Could quickly/easily just become torrential rain and fighting updrafts 

I think you’re forgetting that this is a remnant TC related tornado threat. The soundings are pretty classic and not far from what they had in Arkansas and Indiana the last couple days. It’s a classic thermodynamic profile for TC spinners. 

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Just now, CT Rain said:

I think you’re forgetting that this is a remnant TC related tornado threat. The soundings are pretty classic and not far from what they had in Arkansas and Indiana the last couple days. It’s a classic thermodynamic profile for TC spinners. 

Agree... Beryl's remnant highly sheared profiles have consistently produced over the past 60 hours, as it has march northeast!  Some of SPC meso products are screaming spinners, focused on central NY.... we've already seen multiple warnings across western NY...  I think SPC has this nailed...

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think you’re forgetting that this is a remnant TC related tornado threat. The soundings are pretty classic and not far from what they had in Arkansas and Indiana the last couple days. It’s a classic thermodynamic profile for TC spinners. 

Storms are really starting to go up on radar and there is the confirmed tornado southwest of BUF. 

But even with these TC related threats, isn't H7 temps >10C still super warm? But I do suppose given the degree of llvl shear and instability it wouldn't take much for things to spin. 

I wasn't discounting there would be a few tornadoes today but seeing some say stuff like several-plus tornadoes or even strong tornadoes. 

How does this compare with 8/29/05 (remnants of Katrina coming through). I don't think I've ever gone back and looked at that and that was before I knew about models. I just remember being super excited because on TWC local on the 8's it said, "storms could contain tornadoes" but nothing ever ended up really developing that day (but there is much more going on now than there was that day...I think). 

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8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think you’re forgetting that this is a remnant TC related tornado threat. The soundings are pretty classic and not far from what they had in Arkansas and Indiana the last couple days. It’s a classic thermodynamic profile for TC spinners. 

I mean the radar presentation for these cells is classic. Tiny little hooks.

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29 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Agree... Beryl's remnant highly sheared profiles have consistently produced over the past 60 hours, as it has march northeast!  Some of SPC meso products are screaming spinners, focused on central NY.... we've already seen multiple warnings across western NY...  I think SPC has this nailed...

The tornado in W NY seems to have been on the ground for a while... I see three separate warnings from BUF with confirmed damaging tor on the ground

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@weatherwiz

mcd1570.png

 

   Mesoscale Discussion 1570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central/northern New York

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

   Valid 101715Z - 101845Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

   SUMMARY...Discrete storms in central New York will encounter
   increasingly favorable environment for tornadoes as the move
   northeast the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed north-northeast of
   Binghamton. With the more dense cloud cover shifting northward,
   temperatures are beginning to rise into the low to mid 80s F ahead
   of these storms. Given the favorable storm mode and low-level shear
   near the warm front (effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 per objective
   mesoanalysis), the tornado risk with these storms will likely
   increase over the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
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1 minute ago, yoda said:

@weatherwiz

mcd1570.png

 

   Mesoscale Discussion 1570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central/northern New York

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

   Valid 101715Z - 101845Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

   SUMMARY...Discrete storms in central New York will encounter
   increasingly favorable environment for tornadoes as the move
   northeast the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed north-northeast of
   Binghamton. With the more dense cloud cover shifting northward,
   temperatures are beginning to rise into the low to mid 80s F ahead
   of these storms. Given the favorable storm mode and low-level shear
   near the warm front (effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 per objective
   mesoanalysis), the tornado risk with these storms will likely
   increase over the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

I'm certainly not saying there won't be a few tornadoes today, just refuting that I don't think we'll see an "outbreak" (several tornadoes). The combination of wind shear and instability is certainly impressive and that is evident by the signatures on the ongoing storms. But we've often times seen similar where the reflectivity's have that "look" but struggle to produce. 

I've seen some on fb and twitter indicating today as a tornado outbreak with strong tornado potential...that is what I'm disagreeing on.  

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The other thing to consider too is how storms develop and what can remain discrete. If cells are going to develop and "stack" like this, given the inflow direction, the more northern of the stacked cells are going to have their inflow cutoff. southern cells would have the better chance given uninterrupted inflow

image.thumb.png.1941067c5152608086fdf5a3c1cd47f4.png

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