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June 2024


Stormlover74
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Mesoscale Discussion 1487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 301355Z - 301600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase in coverage/intensity through midday. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected through afternoon. One or more severe thunderstorm watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England.

DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is already in place across the region this morning, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F noted in observations. Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to low 80s, and even modest heating through broken clouds will aid in further destabilization toward midday. 12z RAOBs from ALB and OKX also indicate a strongly sheared environment, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt present. Early convection is already noted near Binghamton NY along an outflow boundary. Additional convection is developing further west across central PA ahead of an east/southeast-advancing cold front.

As convection gradually increases over the next few hours, bowing segments/clusters are expected given mostly unidirectional deep-layer flow. Large instability, high PW values, and steepening low-level lapse rates amid favorable shear will support swaths of damaging winds across the region through the afternoon into early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed for the region within the next couple of hours.

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I picked up 0.24" last night. Was happy to get that to water the garden just in case this afternoon doesn't work out, but the threat looks very good. The one thing we have going against us is it's cloudy, but obviously we still have a ton of fuel for the storms. Hopefully we'll see something nice. 

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 489
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     Northern Delaware
     Massachusetts
     New Jersey
     Southern New York
     Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
     Rhode Island
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A mix of thunderstorm clusters and supercells should pose
   a threat for numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds as they
   move eastward this afternoon and evening. Peak wind gusts should
   generally range around 60-70 mph, with isolated gusts perhaps
   reaching up to 75 mph. Occasional hail around 1-1.5 inches in
   diameter may also occur with any sustained supercell.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
   of Worcester MA to 30 miles west southwest of Philadelphia PA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27035.

   ...Gleason
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1 minute ago, JonClaw said:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 489
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     Northern Delaware
     Massachusetts
     New Jersey
     Southern New York
     Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
     Rhode Island
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A mix of thunderstorm clusters and supercells should pose
   a threat for numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds as they
   move eastward this afternoon and evening. Peak wind gusts should
   generally range around 60-70 mph, with isolated gusts perhaps
   reaching up to 75 mph. Occasional hail around 1-1.5 inches in
   diameter may also occur with any sustained supercell.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
   of Worcester MA to 30 miles west southwest of Philadelphia PA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27035.

   ...Gleason

 

IMG_3752.jpeg

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