psv88 Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Bad day for the beach Probably hit up the local north shore beach. 10 minutes away so I can scramble back if storms blow up. Wouldn’t drive hours to hit the beach though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: I hope the south jersey convection isn’t killing the afternoon potential for us It does feel strange to have such a big severe weather threat on day that's completely overcast. Hopefully it won't hurt chances for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2024 Author Share Posted June 30, 2024 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: It does feel strange to have such a big severe weather threat on day that's completely overcast. Hopefully it won't hurt chances for our area. Lots of big storms north of us. But they are further away from the south jersey convection. HRRR says our area waits til the 2nd line around 6-7pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 we'll clear out in time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Lots of big storms north of us. But they are further away from the south jersey convection. HRRR says our area waits til the 2nd line around 6-7pm Best severe will split the area north south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2024 Author Share Posted June 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Best severe will split the area north south possibly but not a guarantee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 22 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It does feel strange to have such a big severe weather threat on day that's completely overcast. Hopefully it won't hurt chances for our area. Yeah, that normally means a bust. We shall see… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, that normally means a bust. We shall see… Usually the enhanced threat or greater is a reason to bust in on itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 The NY area really had something like 200 or 300 storm reports a few days ago. Now, it looks like several more severe storms will be in the general area. As per last night's models, I thought this might be a slight risk, as advertised yesterday, by the SPC. Now, the enhanced risk seems alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 Just now, Chinook said: The NY area really had something like 200 or 300 storm reports a few days ago. Now, it looks like several more severe storms will be in the general area. As per last night's models, I thought this might be a slight risk, as advertised yesterday, by the SPC. Now, the enhanced risk seems alright. This looks nothing like what we are going to get today, hrrrrrrr has very little 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 It's interesting watching again the storms go about 20-25 miles off to my north along the Sussex/Orange County border. It's not that we don't get anything (think Thursday), but this seems to be the case 7 or 8 times out of 10. You can almost pick Montague/Port Jervis/Warwick, as the start of the line and from there on north and east, and you'd be right 80% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 This model has several severe storms, so probably at least a slight risk in the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 3rd highest June dew point on record here at KHVN. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=CT_ASOS&zstation=HVN&var=max_dwpf&w=all&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=jun&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 clearing working into the western metro now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 Cleared out and clouded back up. 79/76 now, down from 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 CT getting crushed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 Latest HRRR hammers snj 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Latest HRRR hammers snj it's completely wrong to our north so it doesn't mean anything 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: it's completely wrong to our north so it doesn't mean anything Good catch. It completely missed the storm in SNE a few days ago that caused widespread damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2024 Author Share Posted June 30, 2024 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Good catch. It completely missed the storm in SNE a few days ago that caused widespread damage This would be classic though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Good catch. It completely missed the storm in SNE a few days ago that caused widespread damage It's annoying how wildly inconsistent the HRRR is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's annoying how wildly inconsistent the HRRR is. I honestly don't understand what peoples fascination is with the HRRR when it can have such wild run to run swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 Down to 80 with clouds. No chance we see severe here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2024 Author Share Posted June 30, 2024 CT is finishing one hell of a severe weather month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: CT is finishing one hell of a severe weather month Crazy two week stretch for them. We have mainly missed out down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 Areas affected...southern New England, southern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301744Z - 302344Z Summary...Bands of scattered thunderstorm activity were moving quickly to the east, but also merging/training locally to produce spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates could cause flash flood potential to increase through the early evening. Discussion...Storms have deepened and expanded in coverage within a strongly unstable airmass across the discussion area over the past hour. The storms are aligned along and just ahead of a surface cold front across central PA/southern New York and were embedded in deep westerly flow, promoting 30-40 kt storm motions. Of particular concern, however, is the alignment of convection across Connecticut and southern New York favoring training, which has boosted rain rates into the 1-1.5 inch/hr range, threatening local FFG thresholds. Models/observations are in general agreement that storms will continue to train/expand eastward while propagating southward/eastward toward more populated locales (including New York/northern New Jersey, Providence RI, and Boston). Not only are FFGs locally lower in some of these areas, but urban/hydrophobic surface may promote a local flash flood risk especially where rain rates exceed 1 inch/hr. Flash flooding is possible given the aforementioned scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 85 / 75 some breaks in the clouds, storms firing north NJ - HVlley , CT. More sun by 2;30 - 4:00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 85 / 75 some breaks in the clouds, storms firing north NJ - HVlley , CT. 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Looks like HRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2024 Share Posted June 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 85 / 75 some breaks in the clouds, storms firing north NJ - HVlley , CT. Yikes. Might not clear out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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