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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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I did back down in the total list or synoptic metrics, though. 

The GFS did too.    Could be a beginning of the 'deamplification' game when extended gets into mid range.  Have to watch for that.

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I'll have to catch up on their reasoning but this appears axial too far NW aligned to me from what I've been seeing in the guidance, as well ... a-priori with how heat of this type will tend to effect the I-95 corridor given the total manifold of synoptics.  Otherwise, I think this is experimental not ready for use.  But I did have a conversation with an NWS director at the conference last June, whence I brought the synergistic heat phenomenon needs to be recognized as specific risk to civility..etc.  She was in complete agreement and said that heat was an aspect they were working on improving.  I think this product below is a great step (example).  

 

weatherstory.png?id=1718400401179

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This is bananas for Stowe.  94F, 95F, 94F.  Lows near 70F.

Tuesday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 94. South wind 3 to 6 mph. 
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind. 
Juneteenth
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. 
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Calm wind. 
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

 Take's 95-100 for you to wear shorts? 

It used to but I’ll wear shorts now if it’s 85-90 but it also depends. If I have to be stuck mostly inside I’ll wear long pants. It drives me nuts how establishments (or at home) just crank the AC. I do like the AC at night because it’s miserable to sleep when it’s warm but if you’re just sitting behind a desk or out somewhere there is zero need to have the AC cranked so low. 

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Rest my case … in my own inimitable way I was describing that bold as the potential is increasing here for the dreaded “ synergistic feedback” response and this thing being a bigger deal than these 2 m temperatures. It could be one of these scenarios where if anything the GFS 2-m are behind the ball meanwhile, we’re trying to argue why the others are too hot.   

But this being outside of model climatology …that’s another way of suggesting a situation that transcends/the same thing as the synergistic event. Interesting test 

Big story for next week continues to be likelihood of dangerous heat
and humidity starting Tue and peaking Wed-Fri. Ensembles are in very good agreement on building strong upper ridge over eastern U.S. through most of next week which lends increasing confidence. In fact, 500 mb heights nearing 600 dm is something rarely seen in the Northeast and is a very strong signal for record heat. This aligns with EPS and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables which show several
parameters outside of model climatology relating to temperature,
signaling potential for a highly unusual event.
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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Rest my case … in my own inimitable way I was describing that bold as the potential is increasing here for the dreaded “ synergistic feedback” response and this thing being a bigger deal than these 2 m temperatures. It could be one of these scenarios where if anything the GFS 2-m are behind the ball meanwhile, we’re trying to argue why the others are too hot.   

But this being outside of model climatology …that’s another way of suggesting a situation that transcends/the same thing as the synergistic event. Interesting test 

Big story for next week continues to be likelihood of dangerous heat
and humidity starting Tue and peaking Wed-Fri. Ensembles are in very good agreement on building strong upper ridge over eastern U.S. through most of next week which lends increasing confidence. In fact, 500 mb heights nearing 600 dm is something rarely seen in the Northeast and is a very strong signal for record heat. This aligns with EPS and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables which show several
parameters outside of model climatology relating to temperature,
signaling potential for a highly unusual event.

Hopefully it backs off. Wasn't today and yesterday supposed to be hot? Even the BDL heated tarmac didn't reach 90 either day.

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18 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hopefully it backs off. Wasn't today and yesterday supposed to be hot? Even the BDL heated tarmac didn't reach 90 either day.

Yeah, but unfortunately, today’s synoptics and what’s going on next week are unrelated. 
 

there’s a collateral index exchange going on all over the hemisphere, concurrently -whatever led to today and what’s going on today is prior to any of that taking place.  The impending change appears to be harmonic.  The result is a Rwave nadir situated around California and that’s sending a signal over Eastern North America, which is then being augmented further by a very positive NAO - 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll have to catch up on their reasoning but this appears axial too far NW aligned to me from what I've been seeing in the guidance, as well ... a-priori with how heat of this type will tend to effect the I-95 corridor given the total manifold of synoptics.  Otherwise, I think this is experimental not ready for use.  But I did have a conversation with an NWS director at the conference last June, whence I brought the synergistic heat phenomenon needs to be recognized as specific risk to civility..etc.  She was in complete agreement and said that heat was an aspect they were working on improving.  I think this product below is a great step (example).  

 

weatherstory.png?id=1718400401179

I think it factors in climo. Point-click centered on Bradford Regional Airport in north central Pennsylvania has 92, 95, 95, 93 and 91 next week. Since records began in 1957, there have only been 2 June days there in the 90s: 90 on 6/16/2022, and 93 on 6/22/2022. The all-time record is 97F on 7/16/1988 and 7/21/2011. And only one year saw more than 4 90+ readings: 1988, with 8.

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That’s sad. There’s still time for this to modulate. The GFS last two runs are showing a lot of continuity issues though.

Yeah unfortunately it seems like this is what usually happens with these heat waves. When was the last time this area had a real synergistic heat event? Hot Saturday maybe? Would be fun to break some records.

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59 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah unfortunately it seems like this is what usually happens with these heat waves. When was the last time this area had a real synergistic heat event? Hot Saturday maybe? Would be fun to break some records.

Jul 2011. Jul 1995.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Rest my case … in my own inimitable way I was describing that bold as the potential is increasing here for the dreaded “ synergistic feedback” response and this thing being a bigger deal than these 2 m temperatures. It could be one of these scenarios where if anything the GFS 2-m are behind the ball meanwhile, we’re trying to argue why the others are too hot.   

But this being outside of model climatology …that’s another way of suggesting a situation that transcends/the same thing as the synergistic event. Interesting test 

Big story for next week continues to be likelihood of dangerous heat
and humidity starting Tue and peaking Wed-Fri. Ensembles are in very good agreement on building strong upper ridge over eastern U.S. through most of next week which lends increasing confidence. In fact, 500 mb heights nearing 600 dm is something rarely seen in the Northeast and is a very strong signal for record heat. This aligns with EPS and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables which show several
parameters outside of model climatology relating to temperature,
signaling potential for a highly unusual event.

If it’s going to get hot, let’s go for high-end and records.

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56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Jul 2011. Jul 1995.

Yeah July 2011, 1995 and 1991 were definitely pretty hot, but not as extreme as August 1975 and July 1911, which were all timers in a league of their own. It's very rare to get a synergistic event of that caliber. The departures for the April 1976 heat wave were pretty wild. 98F on April 19th at PVD. If those anomalies had occurred in July it would've beat out 1975 and 1911.

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1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah July 2011, 1995 and 1991 were definitely pretty hot, but not as extreme as August 1975 and July 1911, which were all timers in a league of their own. It's very rare to get a synergistic event of that caliber.

Depends where you were. They were just as extreme in S NH. 1977 was a torrid stretch too. 

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