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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ticks have been terrible so far - the mild winter really didn't help this cause. 

we were playing disc golf most weekends all winter - it was actually preferably nicer than traipsing around fairways under hot sun...   but, the ticks were being flicked off every every other outing.   all winter long

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19 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ticks have been terrible so far - the mild winter really didn't help this cause. 

I Imagine this will probably be the case almost every year moving forward. I hate it.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty good cell blew up here. Pouring but core is just south.

temp blew up here.  bolted to 86 when that cloud deck slipped off a couple hours ago.  

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17 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ticks have been terrible so far - the mild winter really didn't help this cause. 

Maybe more the result of the prolonged excessive moisture last year.  Drought seems to curtail their ranks noticeably more so than cold.

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wonder if this will be one of those summers where this is always on the extended charts

gfs_T2m_neus_62.png

Yeah right. 

I wonder though if in the modeling world if there are any hypotheses as to why the GFS likes to overmix in the medium/long-range. Hell, the GFS can even tend to overmix in the short range. I find it interesting how the NAM tends to undermix while the GFS tends to overmix. There must be something within the boundary layer physics of each model contributing to this. 

I mean look at this sounding right around the 102°F in northeast Mass. We're mixing up to ~750mb there and that's gotta be as close to superadiabatic lapse rate as you can get. I doubt there are any records on this anywhere but I would go out and wager we hardly, if ever, even came close to mixing to such a level. This is the type of sounding you would expect to see within the Southwest. 

As dendrite always mentions to keep reality in check, we almost always see the outcome be temperatures several degrees cooler with dewpoints several degrees warmer.

925 temps are modeled to be around 30°C with 850 temps around 23°C. Don't you want to see 850 temps more around 26 or so to get a legit shot for 100 here (assuming full sun/mixing)?

image.thumb.png.88d2890f480c457d8d0504077b6c8a97.png

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The heat and humidity are coming. Not only will be it big heat and humidity but it will be long-duration. Only short breaks will be when shortwaves rotate through bringing severe weather. People can try to poo-poo or downplay but that doesn't change the reality of what is coming. 

My recommendation is get your window units and central air units checked to ensure they are operating at max capacity. Get those thick green curtains for the windows to block out sunlight from entering the house. Create a schedule where you are doing all your outdoor stuff either early morning or late afternoon/early evening. Anyone not prepared will regret. There will be so many chairs, couches, etc. stuck to bottoms it will be visible from the space station.

I beg of you: please, please please stay safe

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49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah right. 

I wonder though if in the modeling world if there are any hypotheses as to why the GFS likes to overmix in the medium/long-range. Hell, the GFS can even tend to overmix in the short range. I find it interesting how the NAM tends to undermix while the GFS tends to overmix. There must be something within the boundary layer physics of each model contributing to this. 

I mean look at this sounding right around the 102°F in northeast Mass. We're mixing up to ~750mb there and that's gotta be as close to superadiabatic lapse rate as you can get. I doubt there are any records on this anywhere but I would go out and wager we hardly, if ever, even came close to mixing to such a level. This is the type of sounding you would expect to see within the Southwest. 

As dendrite always mentions to keep reality in check, we almost always see the outcome be temperatures several degrees cooler with dewpoints several degrees warmer.

925 temps are modeled to be around 30°C with 850 temps around 23°C. Don't you want to see 850 temps more around 26 or so to get a legit shot for 100 here (assuming full sun/mixing)?

...

Here's a blank skew-t/l-p diagram (below 500 mb) to assist the sounding/sigma elevation to sfc relationship, provided the atmosphere is mixed to the sigma level.

image.thumb.png.2ffc741f524b372f95aa8342f35adcc1.png

(  (37.8 X 2)  -  (2/10  X 37.8 ) ) + 32 --> (75.6 - 75.6/10 + 32) = 100.04

However, we are not at 1000 mb sigma as our surface altitude ( sigma is the elevation in pressure coordinates)... You can go ahead and add/assume a higher pressure than 1000 mb, which if you run the dry adiabat for estimating, you'll derive something more like 103 to 104.  But here's the thing, the "2-meter" temperature also is typically a super-adiabatic layer on sunny summer days... so that adds a little there too. 

Art:  When I use the T1 temp off the NAM FOUS grid, which is ~ 980 mb at LGA and BOS, I figure that's needs (usually ) lengthening that extrapolation by 20 or 25 mb, which adds 5 to 7C to the T1 temperature ...particularly in and around micro locales that are climate red spots.   So 22C at T1, is really more like 28 or 29C over your drive way or walking across the street downtown or parking lots.   Like today.  22 C and we're 84 (28.x C) west of Boston of interior eastern Mass. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

I Imagine this will probably be the case almost every year moving forward. I hate it.

Ticks are the worst, PIA to work in the yard and next morning wake up with a tick affixed to my lat, they seem to love that spot, then I have to go to the docs and get an antibiotic.

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2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ticks have been terrible so far - the mild winter really didn't help this cause. 

Was hoping the lousy snowpack would allow predators to eat most of the small rodents, major vectors for ticks.  I've been seeing ticks for more than a month here, though the numbers don't seem much different form last year.

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8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get my property sprayed by Tick Ranger. Only time I see ticks is just before the next application. They should reduce the intervals by spraying one extra time per season, my only gripe. Best money I spend tbh…peace of mind with kids and dogs. 

Tick spraying is horrible for beneficial insects. 

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57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Tick spraying is horrible for beneficial insects. 

There are plenty of other insects around because the mixture is predominantly cedar oil based, eco friendly. But regardless, my kids and dogs health is more important than any insect species. 

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