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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark only made it to 90° this spring which is the 3rd coolest since the warmer pattern began back in 2010. While the planet is setting records for SSTs daily, we are one of the few places with a cold pool nearby. So it goes to show how strong that easterly flow has been.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
  2020 86 0
  2014 88 0
  2024 90 8
  2019 90 0
  2015 91 0
  2012 92 0
  2011 92 0
  2023 93 0
  2018 94 0
  2017 94 0
  2013 94 0
  2010 95 0
  2021 96 0
  2016 96 0
  2022 98 0

 

B0C2B294-261F-4BD9-BED6-AF177D4572B8.png

What are the chances that cold pool hangs on long enough to help divert TSs and hurricanes away? 

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79 and partly sunny, warmest day of the next 7-9 on tap.  Some showers and more clouds over the Sothern 1/3 of NJ. Mid - upper 80s (warm spots small outside shot at 90).  Sat looks dry and partly sunny low 80s and Sun similar but chance of showers/rain by the later pm.  Memorial day looking potentially quite wet. Beyond there trough into the NE to close may near / slightly below normal.  Next month opens with a trough cutting off and pending on the location of the cut off we'll see a southerly flow or onshore flow and perhaps unsettles through the 5th.  Beyond there heights rise into the second week of the month.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

What are the chances that cold pool hangs on long enough to help divert TSs and hurricanes away? 

The SST pattern in the North Atlantic began to shift around May 2023 from a record warm pool east of New England to a colder one. It has been associated this spring with all these backdoor cold fronts and low pressure east of New England. Unfortunately, models just aren’t very good beyond 10-15 days to know how much longer this pattern will persist. I am still not sure if this represents a shift to a newer SST and 500mb pattern or it’s just temporary blip associated with the strong Canadian blocking pattern which emerged last May. Plus trying to figure out seasonal hurricane track forecasts beyond 2 weeks out can be low skill. We usually have to wait for the tropics to become active and see what the 500mb steering forecasts look like. Beyond this hurricane season, it will be interesting to see if we can eventually get another cold winter month here. Some blocking and more of a trough to our east could get it done. Our last cold winter month was way back in January 2022.

7FCE5A59-EB79-4036-AAB9-1440F8FF7D7E.png.ebbaf5d586dce37bdfeb8a72ff1a978d.png211C20CA-FB72-447E-9701-A7DD29722C34.png.e8112a240b7ed967dada5583291ee839.png

 

6791B8DD-C312-4966-93BD-AE4EB1DDD622.png.31195c584e5cfb863c227d4452583777.png

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

What are the chances that cold pool hangs on long enough to help divert TSs and hurricanes away? 

It may help, but the cone of uncertainty is 100s of miles wide for a reason.  No one knows where these things are going without being off by 100s of miles at just a few days most of the time.

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

It may help, but the cone of uncertainty is 100s of miles wide for a reason.  No one knows where these things are going without being off by 100s of miles at just a few days most of the time.

Case in point Hurricane Ian 2 yrs ago-the media was all in Tampa when they should have been 150 miles south in Fort Myers...

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark only made it to 90° this spring which is the 3rd coolest since the warmer pattern began back in 2010. While the planet is setting records for SSTs daily, we are one of the few places with a cold pool nearby. So it goes to show how strong that easterly flow has been.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
  2020 86 0
  2014 88 0
  2024 90 8
  2019 90 0
  2015 91 0
  2012 92 0
  2011 92 0
  2023 93 0
  2018 94 0
  2017 94 0
  2013 94 0
  2010 95 0
  2021 96 0
  2016 96 0
  2022 98 0

 

B0C2B294-261F-4BD9-BED6-AF177D4572B8.png

today is the perfect day!

we're the area hot spot too!

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The SST pattern in the North Atlantic began to shift around May 2023 from a record warm pool east of New England to a colder one. It has been associated this spring with all these backdoor cold fronts and low pressure east of New England. Unfortunately, models just aren’t very good beyond 10-15 days to know how much longer this pattern will persist. I am still not sure if this represents a shift to a newer SST and 500mb pattern or it’s just temporary blip associated with the strong Canadian blocking pattern which emerged last May. Plus trying to figure out seasonal hurricane track forecasts beyond 2 weeks out can be low skill. We usually have to wait for the tropics to become active and see what the 500mb steering forecasts look like. Beyond this hurricane season, it will be interesting to see if we can eventually get another cold winter month here. Some blocking and more of a trough to our east could get it done. Our last cold winter month was way back in January 2022.

7FCE5A59-EB79-4036-AAB9-1440F8FF7D7E.png.ebbaf5d586dce37bdfeb8a72ff1a978d.png211C20CA-FB72-447E-9701-A7DD29722C34.png.e8112a240b7ed967dada5583291ee839.png

 

6791B8DD-C312-4966-93BD-AE4EB1DDD622.png.31195c584e5cfb863c227d4452583777.png

wasn't last May much warmer and drier than this one though?

 

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20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wasn't last May much warmer and drier than this one though?

 

Last Mat at EWR was +0.2 with 0.89" rain the entire month

 

May this year is currently +2.8  w/ 2.17" 

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