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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Also looks like that stuff in SE NY about to track along southern CT is becoming more sfc based so may see increasing risk for localized damaging wind gusts

Yeah the stuff out there looks solid

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Also looks like that stuff in SE NY about to track along southern CT is becoming more sfc based so may see increasing risk for localized damaging wind gusts

I'm sure SW CT will get the goods as usual.  By the time it gets to New London county it will probably be weakening due to ocean taint....but we'll see.  The current radar shows some good cells over and moving off the eastern end of Long Island.

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9 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

I'm sure SW CT will get the goods as usual.  By the time it gets to New London county it will probably be weakening due to ocean taint....but we'll see.  The current radar shows some good cells over and moving off the eastern end of Long Island.

The steep lapse rates should help compensate for marine air a bit, but lapse rates are weakening (probably from latent heat release). Anyways, good elevated CAPE so should see decent elevated storms at least

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

check the NYC thread-it's mainly heavy rain and some thunder not seeing much wind being reported

more of a joke lol.

Unless the storms become rooted surface based there will be minimal wind. Small hail is going to be the best bet within these. I would think you see some strengthening of this activity though with eastward progression. Might be one of those times SE CT does best

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Yeah a lot of this was diurnally assisted.  As the suns come up over the realm that halts the radiative cloud top cooling related destabilizing factor- which is elevated instability.  That may account for some weakening look to the satellite.  Warning's allowed to expire.  

I have dim sun through vil debris, and rad looks like nothing is getting this far N in Mass.  Probably, this all slides off by 1pm looking at translation rate on sat, and then we'll see if we can muster sfc based instability associated with the front.  etc... 

These morning convection things can get in the way of things.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

more of a joke lol.

Unless the storms become rooted surface based there will be minimal wind. Small hail is going to be the best bet within these. I would think you see some strengthening of this activity though with eastward progression. Might be one of those times SE CT does best

ha.  someday we'll get our true severe day

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully we can get some EML setups this summer. but give me those or cold pool setups like 2008. 

but for now, at least looking forward to some good thunder and lightning

I think you're visualizing a synopsis that has been increasingly rarefied over the last 10 or 12 years ...

What is becoming more prevalent during summers:  early heat of varying but ultimately unremarkable stature, followed a weakness at mid levels ( when not an actual trough) becoming Rossby stuck along 90W.  This has been causing stagnated theta-e positive anomalies at llvs, but because of that total wholesale construct, EML expulsion can't get much E of Detroit before deflecting south.   Over here on the E side of said axis,  84/78 putrid black mold air stagnatie has has been mid summer favored. 

Obviously that is not/has not been true at all times - people have to be nuanced in thinking along gradations and tendency - a tendency to do so, increasing...  I'm waiting to see if that emerges again.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think you're visualizing a synopsis that has been increasingly rarefied over the last 10 or 12 years ...

What is becoming more prevalent during summers:  early heat of varying but ultimately unremarkable stature, followed a weakness at mid levels ( when not an actual trough) becoming Rossby stuck along 90W.  This has been causing stagnated theta-e positive anomalies at llvs, but because of that total wholesale construct, EML expulsion can get much E of Detroit before deflecting south.   Over here on the E side of said axis,  84/78 putrid black mold air stagnatie has has been mid summer favored

Obviously that is not/has not been true at all times - people have to be nuanced in thinking along gradations and tendency - a tendency to do so, increasing...  I'm waiting to see if that emerges again.

Yup...this has been brutal to watch unfold these last few summers. I guess this stuff is like winter wx...we can go a span of multiple years where we get clobbered and get a handful of them and we can go several year stretches without any. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...this has been brutal to watch unfold these last few summers. I guess this stuff is like winter wx...we can go a span of multiple years where we get clobbered and get a handful of them and we can go several year stretches without any. 

At least tropical is producing :lol: 

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25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

check the NYC thread-it's mainly heavy rain and some thunder not seeing much wind being reported

Oddly our power just went out....hardly ever does, so not sure the issue. Definitely some nice cracks of thunder, but no wind at the moment

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yup...this has been brutal to watch unfold these last few summers. I guess this stuff is like winter wx...we can go a span of multiple years where we get clobbered and get a handful of them and we can go several year stretches without any. 

aaahhh... I'm temped to proffer a CC connection there. 

Not sure we're necessarily going to balance things out with a "span of years" in this case.  

We can have a summer and/or winter of old, still, but the return rates are stretching. 

Just my suspicion -

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Oddly our power just went out....hardly ever does, so not sure the issue. Definitely some nice cracks of thunder, but no wind at the moment

Very heavy rain here and rolling thunder-almost no wind

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4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Oddly our power just went out....hardly ever does, so not sure the issue. Definitely some nice cracks of thunder, but no wind at the moment

Check the eversource outage map. They usually have a dot on the map of the exact spot/issue. 

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