MJO812 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 1 hour ago, MANDA said: Getting there. Less than an hour before we reach the latest sunset. I know, it is two months away so don't me. I'm ready 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Strange that RGEM is showing rain for tomorrow afternoon. The other models are dry. I assume the RGEM is off its rocker. It's supposed to be a beautiful day. Probably the warmest day of the next 3 as well with temps well up into the 70s. Enjoy the 70s today through Tuesday., Too bad we're going to be backdoored with cool and damp weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully we can break out of it a little bit and have a decent day on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 45 minutes ago, weathermedic said: From OKX AFD: While there is deep-layer shear present with strong mid-level flow, instability is generally weak and confined primarily to the mid levels. Surface-based CAPE is located mainly north and west of the NYC metro with SPC HREF max CAPE values of 500-1000 J/KG. Mean CAPE values are less than 250 J/KG. This is partly due to the frontal timing in the evening after max insolation, but also dry air in the low-levels. CAMs generally show the line dissipating this evening as it approaches the area and in some cases with no more than a spotty shower reaching the coast. So the best chance will be across the interior with chances decreasing toward the coast. Yeah the later timing will probably cause the line to weaken as it approaches the NYC metro plus its still a touch early for good severe storms especially closer to the coast but chances will be ramping up over the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Spring is now in full bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. Some photos from this morning: 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Spring is now in full bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. Some photos from this morning: Beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I'm ready I’m not LOL…. You need to enjoy the spring and summer a bit more Ant! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14 Author Share Posted April 14 This is one of those rare times that an advertised 6-10 day warm up underperforms. The much stronger 50/50 low and low over Iowa played a role here. It caused a narrower and more elongated ridge to allow a much stronger backdoor. New run Old run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Made it to 69 before the showers and rain racing through N-NJ/NYC pushed clouds south. Looks in and out and sunny around 2/3 pm west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Enjoy the warmth Monday as the end of the week got uglier. More rain coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Current temp 71 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Big Thunder and Lightning up here but not much rain to go with it. At least where I am. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 75 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Been a stretch of awesome snow winters for Alaska and much of the West which will likely continue as long as this perma-Nina and -PDO stays. This “winter” was another Nina in functionality for much of it just added with the juiced Nino southern jet. And next probably “winter” will probably be officially a strong Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 36 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Been a stretch of awesome snow winters for Alaska and much of the West which will likely continue as long as this perma-Nina and -PDO stays. This “winter” was another Nina in functionality for much of it just added with the juiced Nino southern jet. And next probably “winter” will probably be officially a strong Nina. Yup. AK can’t loose in this new climate. Tomorrow looks beautiful…NYC hit 80 again? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 I ran into some pea-sized hail about 60 miles east of Binghamton. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Up to 75 with storms/showers along the NJ/NY border and pushing east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Hrrr looks nothing like the current radar depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 66 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Radar looks nice but guessing it's going to fizzle out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 great lightning from this line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Just has hail in westechester with that small line that went thru 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Tomorrow and Tuesday will be warm days with widespread readings in the 70s. Tomorrow will be the warmer of the two days with readings rising well into the 70s and perhaps near 80° in the warmest spots. Afterward, it will turn somewhat cooler with unsettled conditions before a stronger cold shot arrives during the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -4.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.405 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.3° (1.6° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Radar looks nice but guessing it's going to fizzle out Definitely going to get some decent rain tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 lightning has really dropped off, line probably starts weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Line in Hunterdon definitely weakening but could still survive a bit longer The rain did but the line died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Line in Hunterdon definitely weakening but could still survive a bit longer Yep looks like it's just gonna be some moderate rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Drying up as it approaches southeast Bergen county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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