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11 hours ago, nycwinter said:

unlikely with the ocean nearby

Multiple stations hit 108° during a drier pattern in 2010 and 2011 which wasn’t nearly as dry as the spring of 2002 was. So we could easily beat that in this much warmer climate if we got into a summer drought with westerly winds. But since we have become so wet with more onshore flow, it hasn’t happened yet. All it took was a brief flash drought in October 2019 to set all time highs by several degrees for the month. Plus we had our first 80° during winter in 2018. So we have been lucky to an extent during the summer that the big highs have been elongated more east of New England instead of flatter into the Carolina’s or Tennessee Valley. When you look at what happened around the Pacific NW a few summers ago it shows how lucky we have been. 
 

Just add 2-3° to the 2010-2011 maxes and you see potentially what a drought could do here in the summer.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108
NY MINEOLA COOP 108
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107
NJ HARRISON COOP 107
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107


October 2019 and February 2018 records were 3-4°warmer than previous records

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2019 96 0
2 1941 93 0
3 1949 92 0
4 1959 91 0
5 1939 90 0
- 1938 90 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2018 80 0
2 1949 76 0
3 2017 74 0
- 1997 74 0
- 1954 74 0
6 1985 73 0


Seattle surpassed previous summer record by 5° in the much warmer 2020s.

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 108 0
2 2009 103 0
3 1994 100 0
4 1991 99 0
- 1981 99 0
- 1960 99 0
5 2020 98 0
- 2007 98 0
- 1988 98 0
- 1979 98 0
- 1967 98 0

 

 

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9 hours ago, Dark Star said:

For NYC proper, they are close enough to the ocean for Seabreeze cooling effects.  When land heats up, it rises. The "missing" air at the surface has to be replaced.  If you are close enough to the ocean, cooler air along the surface will rush in.  Morristown NJ may be far enough west not to be affected by an afternoon sea breeze.

Yea I understand the sea breeze. But that is largely overcome on that heat island in July at peak heat climo. 

It is a non factor once off the boardwalk anywhere else at that point.

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Multiple stations hit 108° during a drier pattern in 2010 and 2011 which wasn’t nearly as dry as the spring of 2002 was. So we could easily beat that in this much warmer climate if we got into a summer drought with westerly winds. But since we have become so wet with more onshore flow, it hasn’t happened yet. All it took was a brief flash drought in October 2019 to set all time highs by several degrees for the month. Plus we had our first 80° during winter in 2018. So we have been lucky to an extent during the summer that the big highs have been elongated more east of New England instead of flatter into the Carolina’s or Tennessee Valley. When you look at what happened around the Pacific NW a few summers ago it shows how lucky we have been. 
 

Just add 2-3° to the 2010-2011 maxes and you see potentially what a drought could do here in the summer.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108
NY MINEOLA COOP 108
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107
NJ HARRISON COOP 107
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107


October 2019 and February 2018 records were 3-4°warmer than previous records

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2019 96 0
2 1941 93 0
3 1949 92 0
4 1959 91 0
5 1939 90 0
- 1938 90 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2018 80 0
2 1949 76 0
3 2017 74 0
- 1997 74 0
- 1954 74 0
6 1985 73 0


Seattle surpassed previous summer record by 5° in the much warmer 2020s.

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 108 0
2 2009 103 0
3 1994 100 0
4 1991 99 0
- 1981 99 0
- 1960 99 0
5 2020 98 0
- 2007 98 0
- 1988 98 0
- 1979 98 0
- 1967 98 0

 

 

@MJO812 @Dan76

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@bluewave 2010 was probably the hottest summer I experienced in my lifetime. The heat combined with the humidity made it feel like a tropical island. If we ever get that type heat again all time records would be established. 
 

76 on Tuesday? 

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19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave 2010 was probably the hottest summer I experienced in my lifetime. The heat combined with the humidity made it feel like a tropical island. If we ever get that type heat again all time records would be established. 
 

76 on Tuesday? 

Yeah, 2010 was even rough back in my old hometown of Long Beach. Westerly flow kept the beaches much warmer than they typically are. The beaches were way too crowded with almost no parking spaces in the neighborhoods. The summer of 2009 was so much more pleasant with much cooler temperatures and less crowds on the boardwalk and beaches. 
 

Looks like we have a shot at mid 70s Tuesday before we get backdoored again on Wednesday and the rains return again. 

FE4EB285-160E-4EEF-88A8-35DD757E323A.thumb.png.593e01892f68a49975d3a6d777c2555c.png

8A4C3AF9-7459-42CB-B954-2398325CC41E.thumb.png.0449c2c28c1e9c47cd017973039fedcf.png

 

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7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You do know you need to see somebody about this heat fetish thing right ?

Good morning CP. Many times what makes you feel good is difficult to avoid and impossible to deny. Stay well, as always ….

 

IMG_0144.png

IMG_0147.png

IMG_0145.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Multiple stations hit 108° during a drier pattern in 2010 and 2011 which wasn’t nearly as dry as the spring of 2002 was. So we could easily beat that in this much warmer climate if we got into a summer drought with westerly winds. But since we have become so wet with more onshore flow, it hasn’t happened yet. All it took was a brief flash drought in October 2019 to set all time highs by several degrees for the month. Plus we had our first 80° during winter in 2018. So we have been lucky to an extent during the summer that the big highs have been elongated more east of New England instead of flatter into the Carolina’s or Tennessee Valley. When you look at what happened around the Pacific NW a few summers ago it shows how lucky we have been. 
 

Just add 2-3° to the 2010-2011 maxes and you see potentially what a drought could do here in the summer.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108
NY MINEOLA COOP 108
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107
NJ HARRISON COOP 107
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107


October 2019 and February 2018 records were 3-4°warmer than previous records

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2019 96 0
2 1941 93 0
3 1949 92 0
4 1959 91 0
5 1939 90 0
- 1938 90 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2018 80 0
2 1949 76 0
3 2017 74 0
- 1997 74 0
- 1954 74 0
6 1985 73 0


Seattle surpassed previous summer record by 5° in the much warmer 2020s.

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 108 0
2 2009 103 0
3 1994 100 0
4 1991 99 0
- 1981 99 0
- 1960 99 0
5 2020 98 0
- 2007 98 0
- 1988 98 0
- 1979 98 0
- 1967 98 0

 

 

Just looking up the Mineloa coop they had 4 days in a row over 100 in 2010

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10 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Just looking up the Mineloa coop they had 4 days in a row over 100 in 2010

It can be as hot on LI or even hotter on W wind days in the summer because of downsloping and compressional heating (the area just north of where the onshore and offshore winds meet) near the sea breeze front. That’s why often the hottest spots anywhere on those days are near JFK and S Nassau away from the barrier islands, or even on the barrier islands when they don’t turn to S winds. I totally agree about the humidity “saving” us (heat indices are often well over 100 now, so even the lower temps come with Miami like humidity because the waters are so warm) and the next dry period here being much hotter than before. We see how horrible the heat was down south last summer, one day that will be us too. 

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16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s hard to believe that the last true drought emergency we had in the metro area was over 22 years ago (2002). The drought/wet cycles don’t normally run this long 

During the 22 years prior to 2002 the DRBC issued 5 drought warmings & 3 drought emergencies. There has much talk about the temp flip since the 15-16 Nino, the precip flip since the 2002-03 Nino has also been impressive.

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal just updated and it has a very wet summer into fall near the East Coast with a very active hurricane season. 
 

0BCCED5D-5F75-40F0-98DE-E12A429CB010.png.ce4ace8e83e40c14119d500befa29459.png
 

F1371C31-1CB8-49D7-97F2-61A8BED63E1E.png.9bd07ecc2df82e5e3c6d4d93f0712dfb.png8F80840E-B79B-4ED5-A2A9-5C79710FD119.png.ce441979752c5afce564c20cc26621a6.png

3CA4CC78-EDE0-41D3-B94E-513DE6F1D104.png.c25ec3baaf59f5d7e1198e3b07d982a3.png

 

Ominous look for sure. Looks like more 100-500 year flood records are going to be broken. 

Doesn't help that we're already so wet. A dry period now would help.

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ominous look for sure. Looks like more 100-500 year flood records are going to be broken. 

Doesn't help that we're already so wet. A dry period now would help.

Yeah, also looks like higher dewpoints again with more onshore flow with the continuation of high pressure to our north and northeast especially as the summer goes on. 
 

D009B552-61B9-486C-A42E-47E0DA14F728.png.471a466d77636fe113f542e7c31faa7d.png
9ED5E57A-24ED-4A48-B987-AAD8DFEF8485.png.5f783ab35f31f3629cc550c26c3fb69e.png

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, also looks like higher dewpoints again with more onshore flow with the continuation of high pressure to our north and northeast especially as the summer goes on. 
 

D009B552-61B9-486C-A42E-47E0DA14F728.png.471a466d77636fe113f542e7c31faa7d.png
9ED5E57A-24ED-4A48-B987-AAD8DFEF8485.png.5f783ab35f31f3629cc550c26c3fb69e.png

 

 

I don’t find it any better that now we’re regularly 93 with dew points 75 or over vs more hot but lower dew point. 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Anchorage is approaching their record seasonal snow of 134 inches (129 to date) that's another stat that tells you we had a ratter winter....AK always does well when we torch all winter

Add to that, this is the second year in a row that the Sierras have had above normal snowfall, first time in some 20 plus years.

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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Add to that, this is the second year in a row that the Sierras have had above normal snowfall, first time in some 20 plus years.

Pattern has favored western storminess with the trough out there

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Low of 37 now to 45.  Cloudy and a bit unsettled but drier today.  Looks dry through Tue, but perhaps some isolated shower or two on Sat.   Warm Mon - Tue ahead of the next bout of clouds/ rain by Wed 4/10 - Sun 4/14. Signal for more ridging and warmth by mid month.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR:  83 (1985)
NYC:  80 (1928)
LGA:  74  (1989)


Lows:

EWR: 23 (1995)
NYC: 20 (1874)
LGA: 25 (1995)

 

Historical:

 

1815: The Tambora Volcano in Java began erupting on this day. A few days later on the 10, Tambora produced the largest eruption known on the planet in the last 10,000 years. Ash from the volcano would circle the globe, blocking sunlight and leading to the unusually cold summer in 1816. On 6/6/1816, snow would fall as far south of Connecticut with some places in New England picking up 10 inches. On July 4th, 1816, the temperature at Savannah GA plunged to 46 degrees. Eastern North America and Europe had freezing nighttime temperatures in August.

 

1936: Approximately 454 people were killed in the second-deadliest tornado outbreak ever in U.S. More than 12 twisters struck Arkansas to South Carolina. An estimated F5 tornado cut a path 400 yards wide through the residential section of Tupelo, Mississippi. At least 216 people were killed, and 700 were injured. The tornado had a 15-mile long path and did $3 million in damage. One of the survivors in Tupelo was a baby of an economically strapped family who had an infant they'd recently named Elvis Aaron Presley. Gainesville, Georgia had at least 203 fatalities and 934 injuries from an estimated F4 tornado that occurred early the following morning. 

 

1945 - The temperature at Eagles Nest, NM, plunged to 45 degrees below zero to establish an April record for the United States. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1955 - The Northern Rockies and the Northern High Plains were in the midst of a four day storm which produced 52 inches of snow at Lead, located in the Black Hills of western South Dakota. (David Ludlum)

1972 - A tornado, 500 yards wide at times, touched down at a marina on the Oregon side of the Columbia River, and then tore through Vancouver WA killing six persons, injuring 300 others, and causing more than five million dollars damage. It was the deadliest tornado of the year, and the worst of record for Washington. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - An unprecedented April blizzard began in the northeastern U.S. One to two feet of snow fell across Massachusetts and Connecticut, and up to 26 inches was reported in Maine. New York City received a foot of snow. Winds reached 70 to 80 mph during the storm, and the storm also produced numerous thunderstorms, which contributed to the heavy snow. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm produced unprecedented April snows in the central Appalachians. Mount Mitchell NC received 35 inches of snow, and up to 60 inches (six feet) of snow was reported in the mountains along the border of North Carolina and Tennessee. The total of 25 inches at Charleston WV easily surpassed their previous record for the entire month of April of 5.9 inches. The 20.6 inch total at Akron OH established an all-time record for that location. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thirty-nine cities across the eastern half of the country reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 91 degrees. Laredo TX was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Santa Maria CA and 105 degrees in Downtown Los Angeles established records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in southern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and north central and northeastern Texas. Thunderstorms spawned a dozen tornadoes in Texas, including one at Fort Worth which caused a million dollars damage. There were nearly one hundred reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms in Texas produced hail three and a half inches in diameter west of Fort Worth, and produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Cross Plains. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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