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March 2024 General Discussion


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10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Quality soaker today

0.40" in the tippy bucket so far. This is the greatest amount of moisture in a system in quite awhile here. Was getting used to less than 0.1 or just a trace. The ground really had that wet smell to it for the first time of the season.

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I wonder if we will green up further with the rain last night, I am noticing lawns are starting to green which is very early, probably almost a month early at this point.

Clover looks like it has came to life. I’d venture that we are 4 weeks away from cutting grass
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Just got back from our last ski trip for the year.  Sad condition on the hills overall (normally this is a great ski time) but we did got 3" of snow Friday night and another 1"or so last night.  Felt wintery with the snow caked on everything.   Glad we stayed in the high hills around Nubs Nob.  Driving around on Saturday there was not much snow in Petoskey itself.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol brutal

 

To be fair, there were some seriously snowy Winters in the 70s and 80s that skew this a bit. Heck the 1970's were so chilly there was some debate of global warming vs global cooling, even though the WMO was team global warming (which ended up being true)

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The theme of models drying things out as an event gets closer continues for Minnesota. What was looking like a decent 0.5-1.0” event for the southern half of Minnesota now is trending to be a thin band of 0.5” somewhere south of the metro. Just hope we can score a few tenths imby.

 

Good luck with the convection for those to my south east.

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On 3/11/2024 at 9:34 AM, Build Back Better Winters said:

With red being 50-75% of normal, it’s not as bad as the colors look.  For many, that’s only a couple inches less than normal because they get 5-7” or less on average.

 

On 3/11/2024 at 10:19 AM, nwohweather said:

To be fair, there were some seriously snowy Winters in the 70s and 80s that skew this a bit. Heck the 1970's were so chilly there was some debate of global warming vs global cooling, even though the WMO was team global warming (which ended up being true)

 

On 3/11/2024 at 3:28 PM, Brian D said:

LOL. Let's just pick 1974 as a start date. So funny LOL 

Like there isn't data going back another 30-50 years at least.

Using 1970s winters as a baseline has been popular for years and will continue to be. When you use what is for most the harshest decade of winters on record as a baseline for "average", make increases in temps and (for some) decreases in snow more eye popping. The ever-popular "since 1970" will still be popular, but now that we have hit a nice round number of 50 years since 1974-75, that too should increase in popularity (especially we can add the last 2 very mild winters, and lop off the milder, lower snow seasons of '71-73). Lets face it, including the many mild and terrible snow seasons of the 1930s-50s would be a real buzzkill, so just start in the 1970s!

 

I verified the data for Detroit. Whats interesting is Mar snowfall did decrease from 7.4" to 5.5" (a ~25% decrease) but Feb snow INCREASED from 6.7" to 16.2" (a ~140% increase :lol:). December saw a sharp decrease. Whats funny though is the annual snowfall remained the same to the tenth of an inch (44.9" to 44.9"). The previous 50 years (1924-1973) saw annual snowfall DECREASE by 6.6" & avg winter temps rise 1.4F.

 

Its all about how you make the graph work for you.

~If I look at the change in the last 50 years of Detroit winters, they have warmed 4.9F and annual snowfall has remained exactly the same (heavier mid-winter and lighter at the beginning and ends of the season).

~However, if I look at the change the last 100 years, the winters have warmed just 1.2F and annual snowfall has increased a whopping 13.3". It goes without saying that those puny mid-20th century winters hurt.

~If I look at the entire period of record, 150 years, Detroit winters have warmed 2.0F & annual snowfall has increased 0.6".

 

 

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You know that point in spring where the green is subliminally taking the forest over? Like you look around and everything is still mostly brown but the green is just seeping in anyway when you stare long enough? Can't believe we're there already

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