Intensewind002 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: 1.27 and still pouring. Looks like another plume of heavy rain about to move through too, probably add another half an inch or so to our totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 Nature tends to balance itself. For years we were dry and in a drought. That drought has ended and we have a surplus of rain, but little snow. Soon we will have a surplus of snow and we will have to wait until May for it all to finally melt. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 10 minutes ago, TriPol said: Nature tends to balance itself. For years we were dry and in a drought. That drought has ended and we have a surplus of rain, but little snow. Soon we will have a surplus of snow and we will have to wait until May for it all to finally melt. We haven’t been in a drought since the 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Briefly dry slotted and happy in Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 53 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: The saddest thing is that it’s only early March and yet there’s not even the opportunity to think “maybe this next storm could be snow,”. It might as well be June. It’s like the very concept of snow has been memory-holed, a month earlier than usual. You could plant begonias. How is CPK doing with number of days below freezing? Has to be lowest ever. I wonder if it even happens again. Earliest last freeze possible? Just Epic how many records broken this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said: Looks like another plume of heavy rain about to move through too, probably add another half an inch or so to our totals Yep. Up to 1.80”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Long Island can’t buy a drop of rain in July and August yet in march we win. Can’t wait for the brown lawns again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Up to about 1.3”. Some of these downpours are crazy. My backyard is turning into a pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Up to about 1.5” here, minor to moderate road flooding all around town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2 inches now. Jackpot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: 2 inches now. Jackpot! Yaay. The mosquitoes in a couple months will be something fierce. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Picked up 1.28" of rain for the day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Up to about 2", maybe a little over. Outside looks like a swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 another big slug of moisture making its way through SNJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2.32” at the wantagh meso so far. Roads were fine on the way into work. Over 4” on the week, should be around 6” by the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 .41 here Tuesday, 1.97 yesterday and .11 so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 9 hours ago, the_other_guy said: You could plant begonias. How is CPK doing with number of days below freezing? Has to be lowest ever. I wonder if it even happens again. Earliest last freeze possible? Just Epic how many records broken this winter! Currently the lowest number of freezes by one day ahead of the previous record holder last winter. If NYC can hold onto 3-1 as the latest feeeze, it would be the 2nd earliest by a few days. 2020 was the last time NYC had a last freeze on March 1st. 2024-03-01 48 30 39.0 0.2 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2024-04-30 36 55 2 2023-04-30 37 0 - 2012-04-30 37 0 3 2002-04-30 47 0 4 2020-04-30 48 0 - 2016-04-30 48 0 5 2017-04-30 49 0 - 1998-04-30 49 0 Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1942 02-28 (1942) 29 11-13 (1942) 31 257 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 1962 03-09 (1962) 32 11-07 (1962) 31 242 1945 03-11 (1945) 32 11-21 (1945) 31 254 1953 03-11 (1953) 21 11-06 (1953) 30 239 1946 03-12 (1946) 28 11-23 (1946) 31 255 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2.70 inches here yesterday alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 16 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s good to see AI versions of these models coming out. The hope is that they can correct the day 11-15 cold bias of all the major models. It will be interesting to see if AI can be used to correct the long range tendency for models to underestimate the warmer MJO forcing. That’s a big part of why the week 2 and beyond forecasts have been up to 5° too cold in spots going back to late November. @bluewave Nice model bias charts! Can you please provide the link for them? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 4 minutes ago, jconsor said: @bluewave Nice model bias charts! Can you please provide the link for them? Thanks. I get them from the Frontierweather DTN site. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification-iframe.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2.25" of rain yesterday (24 HR total). Nice to get a little bit of a break today and tomorrow, my backyard is a pond. One more round of rain Saturday, then a much needed dry out until the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Could be some more beach erosion this weekend as the next storm coincides with the higher astronomical tides at the time of the new moon. But the period of onshore flow should be of shorter duration then some of the stronger recent erosion events. The offshore flow from Sunday into Monday should be more prolonged and stronger with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible as the low closes off near Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Could be some more beach erosion this weekend as the next storm coincides with the higher astronomical tides at the time of the new moon. But the period of onshore flow should be of shorter duration then some of the stronger recent erosion events. The offshore flow from Sunday into Monday should be more prolonged and stronger with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible as the low closes off near Maine. Beaches have been f*cked up and down the east coast this past year. I regularly fish at Island Beach State Park, and we typically lose a little bit of beach in the winter and spring, but it builds back in the summer and fall. December and January were absolutely brutal. Some spots on the beach that typically are 50 yards wide, are now almost impassible at high tide. Sand is the softest I've ever seen it, and I've had to winch out stuck trucks and SUVs near constantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, TJW014 said: Beaches have been f*cked up and down the east coast this past year. I regularly fish at Island Beach State Park, and we typically lose a little bit of beach in the winter and spring, but it builds back in the summer and fall. December and January were absolutely brutal. Some spots on the beach that typically are 50 yards wide, are now almost impassible at high tide. Sand is the softest I've ever seen it, and I've had to winch out stuck trucks and SUVs near constantly This rough pattern for the beaches looks to continue right into the fall. Record Atlantic SSTs plus a developing La Niña. So we could be looking at a high number of named storms and ACE. Even if the strongest landfall impacts are down around the SE and Gulf, the beaches aren’t ready for a big hurricane swell season. Closer landfalls would be even worse since many spots are in such bad shape. Not to mention the flooding from rainfall should high amounts of tropical moisture stream into our region like we saw a few summers ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2.86” storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Beautiful morning here 53 w/lots of sunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: This rough pattern for the beaches looks to continue right into the fall. Record Atlantic SSTs plus a developing La Niña. So we could be looking at a high number of named storms and ACE. Even if the strongest landfall impacts are down around the SE and Gulf, the beaches aren’t ready for a big hurricane swell season. Closer landfalls would be even worse since many spots are in such bad shape. Not to mention the flooding from rainfall should high amounts of tropical moisture filter into our region like we saw a few summers ago. Maybe it is my ignorance, but what is ACE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 24 minutes ago, snywx said: Beautiful morning here 53 w/lots of sunshine 51 here. Sun is breaking thru the thinning cloud deck. 1.31” in the Davis with the latest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1.11" rainfall last 24 hours and 1.61" last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Maybe it is my ignorance, but what is ACE? It’s the accumulated cyclone energy. The early seasonal forecasts indicate we have a shot at 160+. But the predominant storm tracks will be the most important for the actual impacts. Accumulated Cyclone Energy - Atlantic hide Season ACE TS HU MH Classification 1933 258.57 20 11 6 Extremely active 2005 245.3 28 15 7 Extremely active 1893 231.1475 12 10 5 Extremely active 1926 229.5575 11 8 6 Extremely active 1995 227.1025 19 11 5 Extremely active 2004 226.88 15 9 6 Extremely active 2017 224.8775 17 10 6 Extremely active 1950 211.2825 16 11 6 Extremely active 1961 188.9 12 8 5 Extremely active 1998 181.7675 14 10 3 Extremely active 1887 181.26 19 11 2 Extremely active 1878 180.85 12 10 2 Extremely active 2020 180.3725 30 14 7 Extremely active 2003 176.84 16 7 3 Extremely active 1999 176.5275 12 8 5 Extremely active 1932 169.6625 15 6 4 Extremely active 1996 166.1825 13 9 6 Extremely active 1886 166.165 12 10 4 Extremely active 1969 165.7375 18 12 3 Extremely active 2010 165.4825 19 12 5 Extremely active 1906 162.88 11 6 3 Extremely active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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