Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: No by people who are taunting a great pattern ahead by looking at the ensembles and long range models. Alot of forecasters are being cautious Next 2 to 3 weeks could end up very dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 years ago so close but so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: 32 days for the MJO + specified teleconnections and 352 days for all other cases. Thanks, although wouldn't "all other cases" for Feb from 1975 to 2023 be about 1342 (28 days/Feb x 48 Feb's)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Next 2 to 3 weeks could end up very dry we need this dry period the ground is too saturated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Next 2 to 3 weeks could end up very dry Agree That's the worry about getting a cold pattern. Could be a Mid Atlantic pattern. Hopefully we get some piece of it if that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree That's the worry about getting a cold pattern. Could be a Mid Atlantic pattern. Hopefully we get some piece of it if that happens. the models and other guidance will indicate this possibility one way or the other very soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 February could end up well below normal precipitation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing coming off of a saturated December and early January. Still, I'm always careful what I wish for since it's seems either feast or famine with precipitation anymore. Remember how dry last spring was, burned up lawns by June, and the wildfire smoke, and then the faucet opened up in July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Picard said: February could end up well below normal precipitation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing coming off of a saturated December and early January. Still, I'm always careful what I wish for since it's seems either feast or famine with precipitation anymore. Remember how dry last spring was, burned up lawns by June, and the wildfire smoke, and then the faucet opened up in July. that wildfire smoke was coming from whatever was going on in Canada......just so happened the wind direction favored it coming our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the models and other guidance will indicate this possibility one way or the other very soon Terrible winter for alot of areas from the Midwest to the Northeast. Syracuse is 50 inches below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, MJO812 said: Terrible winter for alot of areas from the Midwest to the Northeast. Syracuse is 50 inches below normal. Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Terrible winter for alot of areas from the Midwest to the Northeast. Syracuse is 50 inches below normal. I wish the people saying how awesome the pattern looks could just admit that suppression is a possibility 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter DC only needs 6 inches to reach average. That would add to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year. Atmosphere got tired from last year in Minnesota. 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I wish the people saying how awesome the pattern looks could just admit that suppression is a possibility They should because it's legit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 27 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Thanks, although wouldn't "all other cases" for Feb from 1975 to 2023 be about 1342 (28 days/Feb x 48 Feb's)? Typo: Should be 1,352. I accidentally omitted the 1000s in the first post on this matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 AO is crashing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year. Only 1930-31 (6.8") had less snow through February 4th than this winter (7.3"). Winter 1930-31 finished with 14.2". Winter 2023-24 is so far the warmest on record for Minneapolis (28.7° mean temperature vs. 27.4° in 1877-78). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year. Don’t feel bad, they had close to 100 last winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Don’t feel bad, they had close to 100 last winter yeah at least they had that...we're on the road to 2 epic clunkers in a row. the year after our worst winters usually fared better (02-03 and 12-13) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter Grade F- winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it. Yep-very similar to last year outside of a week of cold in mid Jan another top 10 warmest winter in NYC is all but guaranteed....haven't used my snowblower since Jan 2022 was in Home Depot yesterday-all the winter merchandise sitting there with dust on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: People need to realize that 1 Mecs/ Hecs storm can bring NYC near normal and the pattern ahead can certainly do that. Sure anything is possible, but relying on a HECS as a Hail Mary to bring us up to normal kinda reeks of desperation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, HailMan06 said: Sure anything is possible, but relying on a HECS as a Hail Mary to bring us up to normal kinda reeks of desperation. We've been reeking of that for 2 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I guess the one bright spot for the power demand is that it’s climatologically easier to get +5 to +10 and greater departures during the cold season from the Upper Midwest to Northeast than in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 God Forbid we see +5 or +8 in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The near mid-month pattern change remains on track. Both the latest ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 are in strong agreement concerning the February 19-25 period: ECMWF Weeklies: 1°C to 3°C below normal Note: Download issues precluded providing the full map with its corresponding temperature scale The CFSv2: In addition, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has now gone negative. Its preliminary value for today is -0.369. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: God Forbid we see +5 or +8 in July ..the day is coming... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 26 last night. At least the bugs are being held at bay for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, psv88 said: 26 last night. At least the bugs are being held at bay for now. Did see a robin on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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