Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,509
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dano62
    Newest Member
    Dano62
    Joined

February 2024


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

Added the 1/18 CPC FEBRUARY outlook and the new CPC week 3-4 issued 1/26. Both posted here on 1/26 748PM.

While the anomalies are warmer than normal the first two weeks of February, it might not mean absurdly warm preventing snow in NYC. The warmer than normal anomalies seem to be more centered up in Canada, modifying the potential for true arctic intrusions down here.

Guidance suggests the potential for several east coast storms In February and the possibility of snows from Asheville to Boston - I95 westward.  That may be climo combined with the El Nino pattern of potentially above normal precip southern USA and up the east coast to NYC.  So, can the NYC CP Feb snow total exceed our January total?

Temperatures may chill down a bit in mid February?

Will add on here Friday evening the 26th with the new 1/26 CPC guidance.

May also add Don's stats if he has any for this pattern for Feb. 

Thank you all. 

And now the CPC Jan 31 update for Feb. Looks a little higher prob of not so much qpf, and chilled New England a bit. 

 

On March 2 attached the Feb verification.  Looks like our local take verified OK with the mid month chilling, and twice the Jan paltry snow total at CP. and the CPC trend to below normal qpf also worked out with east coast events trailing off the coast south of our area. 

 

Screen Shot 2024-01-26 at 7.26.08 PM.png

Screen Shot 2024-01-26 at 7.45.22 PM.png

Screen Shot 2024-02-02 at 5.24.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-03-02 at 11.49.21 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-03-02 at 11.50.13 AM.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Hardcore back-loaded winter? Maybe, but I'm not feeling it right now. It seems to me that you'd need some real cold somewhere to be able to generate enough to do us any good down here and there isn't much to draw from and build on.  

I wonder where all that cold air in 1966-67 came from in the east, especially in a -PNA winter

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder where all that cold air in 1966-67 came from in the east, especially in a -PNA winter

 

If you have a deep -EPO and a slight RNA, then we could be frigid. Especially if the RNA is not static (i.e. the winter averages RNA however you have PNA spikes).

Would be good to see a PNA chart from that year.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely some agreement for a +pna and -epo starting around 2-10. This also has backing from the seasonal guidance and mjo getting into p8. Hopefully, this isn’t delayed but I feel we should be back to tracking threats for the coast 2nd week of February. 

IMG_2998.png

IMG_2999.png

IMG_3002.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely some agreement for a +pna and -epo starting around 2-10. This also has backing from the seasonal guidance and mjo getting into p8. Hopefully, this isn’t delayed but I feel we should be back to tracking threats for the coast 2nd week of February. 

IMG_2998.png

IMG_2999.png

IMG_3002.gif

you’re getting very close to linking those two troughs as well… that’s when you pop your -NAO

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Hardcore back-loaded winter? Maybe, but I'm not feeling it right now. It seems to me that you'd need some real cold somewhere to be able to generate enough to do us any good down here and there isn't much to draw from and build on.  

My shovel is sitting collecting dust for a second straight winter. Wouldn’t surprise me if it keeps sitting there until next year. Unless it’s to help bail out from our record rains which of course we can count on now like clockwork. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Torch won’t be on the east coast to start the month 

IMG_3009.png

The Omega block pattern is starting to look real for February. Those patterns tend to be stable and do not like to just come in and out. It looks like it’s going to resemble a March pattern, a month early. Probably going to see some weird slow moving cutoff/closed low solutions and they may favor the MidAtlantic and south. It does not look like an explosive east coast I-95 snowstorm pattern….yet

  • Like 4
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Omega block pattern is starting to look real for February. Those patterns tend to be stable and do not like to just come in and out. It looks like it’s going to resemble a March pattern, a month early. Probably going to see some weird slow moving cutoff/closed low solutions and they may favor the MidAtlantic and south. It does not look like an explosive east coast I-95 snowstorm pattern….yet

Best chance for snow will be after the 10th imo…

hopefully it doesn’t get can kicked 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Best chance for snow will be after the 10th imo…

hopefully it doesn’t get can kicked 

If that Omega Block actually forms, I don’t think it will be in any big rush to leave, they usually are even more stable than Rex Blocks. It may take until mid-February or thereafter to get the potential snowstorm producing pattern in, again, assuming the weeklies are definitely correct

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The Omega block pattern is starting to look real for February. Those patterns tend to be stable and do not like to just come in and out. It looks like it’s going to resemble a March pattern, a month early. Probably going to see some weird slow moving cutoff/closed low solutions and they may favor the MidAtlantic and south. It does not look like an explosive east coast I-95 snowstorm pattern….yet

this is actually good news

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay pinned this topic
  • BxEngine unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...