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February 2024


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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible runs overnight 

Beyond horrible. That was probably the worst runs we’ve seen since November. Something has to change in a real big way the next 2 weeks or this winter will go on life support at that point

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Beyond horrible. That was probably the worst runs we’ve seen since November. Something has to change in a real big way the next 2 weeks or this winter will go on life support at that point

Agree

That's why no one should get excited about any model run past 7 days .

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Beyond horrible. That was probably the worst runs we’ve seen since November. Something has to change in a real big way the next 2 weeks or this winter will go on life support at that point

Very rare that we get to 1/30 and if there is no winter at that point there’s a miracle turnaround. Fine as far as I’m concerned, at least do away with any false hope and move us onto spring. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Very rare that we get to 1/30 and if there is no winter at that point there’s a miracle turnaround. Fine as far as I’m concerned, at least do away with any false hope and move us onto spring. 

Agreed. Hopefully we go directly back into the warm phases. End this miserable winter 

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

More can kicks in the 11-15 day 

 

 

Yeah, the record +30C SSTs are holding the forcing in place longer now to the west of the Dateline. The old runs from a week ago were more favorable had the convection rapidly weakening. So it looks like the 2nd week of February will actually be warmer than the first week now. 

6829A9CF-0DBE-4D0A-B5FC-E221403ABBA0.gif.eb4424059dc022e5e92891853ac5f1a0.gif

New runs stronger forcing west of the Dateline and warmer 2nd week of February

FE844A47-A268-49E2-831C-60B6921ED25E.thumb.png.bf65c5eae36260299d63cdca56f09b3c.png
188CDD58-C75A-4C8F-B2FB-BBC19BCB995C.thumb.png.306efb3581c60c5b0dd7a52253072eb6.png
 

Old runs weaker forcing to the west of the Dateline and colder pattern for 2nd week of February 

1FDC5E42-EB66-4B98-A04E-F07D2F5DA37C.thumb.png.f3fca684f950fe625fb1507ec2a76e3e.png

587FAFB8-DE8D-4A82-B77C-527F023BCF92.thumb.png.dd43619d01d273810fdca1b47cdd1151.png

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the record +30C SSTs are holding the forcing in place longer now to the west of the Dateline. The old runs from a week ago were more favorable had the convection rapidly weakening. So it looks like the 2nd week of February will actually be warmer than the first week now. 

6829A9CF-0DBE-4D0A-B5FC-E221403ABBA0.gif.eb4424059dc022e5e92891853ac5f1a0.gif

New runs stronger forcing west of the Dateline and warmer 2nd week of February

FE844A47-A268-49E2-831C-60B6921ED25E.thumb.png.bf65c5eae36260299d63cdca56f09b3c.png
188CDD58-C75A-4C8F-B2FB-BBC19BCB995C.thumb.png.306efb3581c60c5b0dd7a52253072eb6.png
 

Old runs weaker forcing to the west of the Dateline and colder pattern for 2nd week of February 

1FDC5E42-EB66-4B98-A04E-F07D2F5DA37C.thumb.png.f3fca684f950fe625fb1507ec2a76e3e.png

587FAFB8-DE8D-4A82-B77C-527F023BCF92.thumb.png.dd43619d01d273810fdca1b47cdd1151.png

Yup, don’t tell @NittanyWx or @brooklynwx99 this…

Im beginning to think we don’t make it to 8 and emerge into p1 

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21 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks good to me

1706400000-IYOyAmvb5XA.thumb.png.8a274a73067195698325263727cb3431.png

It's a fairly coherent 1 week period of E Pac to Central Am forcing while coinciding with subsidence over maritime continent,   Pretty clean Nino all things considered.

 

If this doesn't work, it's likely for reasons unrelated to tropical forcing, which is the drawback to using this methodology.  To me it looks like a split-flow NIno look for a bit though.

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29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Very rare that we get to 1/30 and if there is no winter at that point there’s a miracle turnaround. Fine as far as I’m concerned, at least do away with any false hope and move us onto spring. 

NYC is going to go into early February with less than 3 inches of snow, total, since 11/1 and above normal temps overall the last 3 months. A very, very bad sign, winters this bad normally just don’t come back. The 1st 2 weeks of February at the very least look like garbage now and I don’t see March, 2018 walking through the door, especially given the tendency for strong Ninos to have a mild to very mild early-mid March…

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the record +30C SSTs are holding the forcing in place longer now to the west of the Dateline. The old runs from a week ago were more favorable had the convection rapidly weakening. So it looks like the 2nd week of February will actually be warmer than the first week now. 

6829A9CF-0DBE-4D0A-B5FC-E221403ABBA0.gif.eb4424059dc022e5e92891853ac5f1a0.gif

New runs stronger forcing west of the Dateline and warmer 2nd week of February

FE844A47-A268-49E2-831C-60B6921ED25E.thumb.png.bf65c5eae36260299d63cdca56f09b3c.png
188CDD58-C75A-4C8F-B2FB-BBC19BCB995C.thumb.png.306efb3581c60c5b0dd7a52253072eb6.png
 

Old runs weaker forcing to the west of the Dateline and colder pattern for 2nd week of February 

1FDC5E42-EB66-4B98-A04E-F07D2F5DA37C.thumb.png.f3fca684f950fe625fb1507ec2a76e3e.png

587FAFB8-DE8D-4A82-B77C-527F023BCF92.thumb.png.dd43619d01d273810fdca1b47cdd1151.png

I think your diagnosis of the forcing here is off.  I see this as clear Nino forcing at the expense of the maritime continent, coinciding with +VP200 anomalies maritime continent.

 

You've got about as clean of an eastward propagation in the VP signal as you'd like.    If this doesn't work in traditional canonical fashion for more active (potentially snowier) purposes, it will likely be due to the erosion of source region combined with a poor placement/durability of high latitude blocking as a result of several factors discussed over the past few weeks in here.  All valid, but not cleanly explained by tropical forcing alone.

 

Right now and for the next week, however, you're getting the cleanest + 850 u-wind anomaly signal we've had so far this Nino with an eastward propagation of VP anomalies and a jet extension in the sub-tropics along with a fairly clean shut off of convection for about a week just west of the dateline (as shown in OLR anomalies too).  Wheeler plots aside, those are the typical ingredients of a canonical back half Nino pattern from a tropical forcing/synoptics perspective.

 

So if this doesn't work, I think you'll need to look at factors other than the tropics for why this split flow pattern did not deliver.  I've got a few reasons ready and I'm not convinced this is going to offer much, but I don't agree with your assessment of tropical forcing right now.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Beyond horrible. That was probably the worst runs we’ve seen since November. Something has to change in a real big way the next 2 weeks or this winter will go on life support at that point

Is it because the el nino isn't weakening as fast as it was supposed to?

Don posted some interesting data about strong el ninos that weaken more slowly than others do-- they tend to be less snowy and more mild.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Is it because the el nino isn't weakening as fast as it was supposed to?

Don posted some interesting data about strong el ninos who weaken more slowly than others do-- they tend to be less snowy and more mild.

its more about the el nino moving faster and stronger into the central regions (modoki el  nino) but indications now are a complete faster collapse of the entire el nino and the beginning of la nina conditions by early spring

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56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, don’t tell @NittanyWx or @brooklynwx99 this…

Im beginning to think we don’t make it to 8 and emerge into p1 

I'm beginning to think you don't know what you're talking about.  

 

On the other hand @bluewave does know his methodology even though I disagree with it and his conclusions right now.  I don't think the tropical forcing is as hostile as he's making it out to be.

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40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’ve laid my thoughts out supported by evidence and we’re going to have to agree to disagree. we’ll see what happens in the coming weeks

ok lets have @allsnow lay out his detailed evidence - I believe someone with the MET tag over non MET tags

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3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I'm beginning to think you don't know what you're talking about.  

 

On the other hand @bluewave does know his methodology even though I disagree with it and his conclusions right now.  I don't think the tropical forcing is as hostile as he's making it out to be.

I don’t care what your feelings are about my skill level…

 

It was evident days ago the mjo was slowing in p7 but I was told I had no idea what I was talking about by you and others…

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t care what your feelings are about my skill level…

 

It was evident days ago the mjo was slowing in p7 but I was told I had no idea what I was talking about by you and others…

Show your work.

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s clear we won’t make p8(weakly if anything) then reemerge into p1. The olr maps are finally showing convection moving out of p7 at the end of the 11-15day. That’s why I ask what is the Nino Feb response in p1/2 

IMG_3018.gif

Your OLR maps here also show an eastward progression and reduction in W Pac forcing for the 6-10 day window.  So, as diagnosed, a reduction in W Pac forcing and shift eastward.

 

Do you want to try again?

 

Here's another way to look at it

image.png.7d431b9465d0cfafe9d1ad9d628b114b.png

 

Now if you wanted to make the argument that E pac forcing is not responding as cleanly as you'd hoped to -VP anomalies in the region, I'd maybe think you'd have a point.  But you didn't make that point, so...

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Like there's a clear difference between saying 'the P8-1 response is not as clean as I'd hoped' in tropical forcing terms and arguing 'oh this is stuck in P7'.  I have a hard time making the argument 'this is stuck in P7' when the eastward migration of VP200 anomalies has already occurred and there's a Subsidence/+ OLR signal just west of the dateline...and a pretty coherent one at that.

 

That does NOT mean the MJO is 'not progressing''

 

What it does show, however, is the largely subjective nature of MJO usage...

 

 

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