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February 2024


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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

That's the worry about getting a cold pattern. Could be a Mid Atlantic pattern.  Hopefully we get some piece of it if that happens.

the models and other guidance will indicate this possibility one way or the other very soon

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February could end up well below normal precipitation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing coming off of a saturated December and early January.  Still, I'm always careful what I wish for since it's seems either feast or famine with precipitation anymore.  Remember how dry last spring was, burned up lawns by June, and the wildfire smoke, and then the faucet opened up in July.

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Just now, Picard said:

February could end up well below normal precipitation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing coming off of a saturated December and early January.  Still, I'm always careful what I wish for since it's seems either feast or famine with precipitation anymore.  Remember how dry last spring was, burned up lawns by June, and the wildfire smoke, and then the faucet opened up in July.

that wildfire smoke was coming from whatever was going on in Canada......just so happened the wind direction favored it coming our way

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10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the models and other guidance will indicate this possibility one way or the other very soon

Terrible winter for alot of areas from the Midwest to the Northeast.

Syracuse is 50 inches below normal.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Upper midwest too.  Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year.   

Atmosphere got tired from last year in Minnesota. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I wish the people saying how awesome the pattern looks could just admit that suppression is a possibility 

They should because it's legit.

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Upper midwest too.  Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year.   

Only 1930-31 (6.8") had less snow through February 4th than this winter (7.3"). Winter 1930-31 finished with 14.2". Winter 2023-24 is so far the warmest on record for Minneapolis (28.7° mean temperature vs. 27.4° in 1877-78).

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Don’t feel bad, they had close to 100 last winter 

yeah at least they had that...we're on the road to 2 epic clunkers in a row.    the year after our worst winters usually fared better (02-03 and 12-13)

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22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter

What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it. 

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it. 

Yep-very similar to last year outside of a week of cold in mid Jan another top 10 warmest winter in NYC is all but guaranteed....haven't used my snowblower since Jan 2022 was in Home Depot yesterday-all the winter merchandise sitting there with dust on it...

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

People need to realize that 1 Mecs/ Hecs storm can bring NYC near normal and the pattern ahead can certainly do that.

Sure anything is possible, but relying on a HECS as a Hail Mary to bring us up to normal kinda reeks of desperation.

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I guess the one bright spot for the power demand is that it’s climatologically easier to get +5 to +10 and greater departures during the cold season from the Upper Midwest to Northeast than in the summer. 

 

A4A35FFA-B38F-4646-949B-D4423298B543.thumb.jpeg.a665afcefe2fec5513a7ed48f2f518c9.jpeg

E27B9872-3B14-4AF3-AACD-81194D28D27D.thumb.jpeg.f2e9b19c7b1277e7ac9ff9f1ef24014c.jpeg

 

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The near mid-month pattern change remains on track. Both the latest ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 are in strong agreement concerning the February 19-25 period:

ECMWF Weeklies: 1°C to 3°C below normal

image.png.b47c89cbf70c70f46c347854f76f75ee.png

Note: Download issues precluded providing the full map with its corresponding temperature scale

The CFSv2:

image.png.e4ada852620de0c1530b2faac6c5c3ea.png

In addition, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has now gone negative. Its preliminary value for today is -0.369.

 

 

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