1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm

[TimChgo9]

It looks like Omaha gets a decent dump. I’ll follow this thread here because it’s got the best info.  Locally they are talking 11”-13” here in far E Nebraska. 

[Imneversatisfied]

NWS is only giving Alpena a 20% chance of 4" + and interior northern mi 80%. Stating closer to Lake Huron the greater chance of rain mix. Not sure if they are using NAM as usual to base forecast as ECMWF and GFS both moved the slp more south today. Time to thread the needle!

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, Imneversatisfied said:

NWS is only giving Alpena a 20% chance of 4" + and interior northern mi 80%. Stating closer to Lake Huron the greater chance of rain mix. Not sure if they are using NAM as usual to base forecast as ECMWF and GFS both moved the slp more south today. Time to thread the needle!

Storms like these can really be boom or bust

[weatherbo]

3 minutes ago, Imneversatisfied said:

NWS is only giving Alpena a 20% chance of 4" + and interior northern mi 80%. Stating closer to Lake Huron the greater chance of rain mix. Not sure if they are using NAM as usual to base forecast as ECMWF and GFS both moved the slp more south today. Time to thread the needle!

I've noticed the official forecasts are almost always a blend of models...verbatim pretty much.

This is basically the going forecast.

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

10 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I've noticed the official forecasts are almost always a blend of models.

They pretty much are forced into using the NBM.

[Harry Perry]

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

they pretty much are forced into using the NBM.

Makes sense considering the spread. Chances of an outlier verifying are relatively low. 

[Chicago Storm]

A lot of noise on guidance over the past 24 hours.

Most 0z guidance shifted a bit NW, and now most 12z guidance shifted bit SE. 

[Imneversatisfied]

Thanks for posting the NBM. Didn't know about it before and wish I hadn't now lol I have noticed the shift SE again tho on 18z runs. Sure is nice to track something either way!

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

A lot of noise on guidance over the past 24 hours.

Most 0z guidance shifted a bit NW, and now most 12z guidance shifted bit SE. 

scientific response

[mimillman]

5 hours ago, mimillman said:

12z EPS similar. 3 runs in a row of this and we’re back in the game 

So much for that 

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Imneversatisfied said:

Lastest ECMWF SE shift puts me back into the best snows. Still worried about wind off the lake creating p type issues. Let's see if the next GFS run follows suit. As for slp, pretty remarkable how consistent models have been for a sub 980mb low in the great lakes region for over a week. Now the show really begins.

DTX mentioned that temps aloft may end up 1-2 degrees Celsius lower than expected. It may be just enough to help in some marginal scenarios. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

NAM caved south. More in line with the euro 

[Imneversatisfied]

24 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

DTX mentioned that temps aloft may end up 1-2 degrees Celsius lower than expected. It may be just enough to help in some marginal scenarios. 

That would help a lot as the easterly wind might enhance snowfall vs making it rain if it was warm aloft. Being right next to the Lake Huron shore can have huge impacts on weather, sometimes like a micro climate mechanism.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

NAM caved south. More in line with the euro 

Huh?? Not over here.

[Chicago916]

Looking like this storm will cause quite the severe outbreak and high winds to the south and east. I'm thinking there will be some surprises with the cold sector due to the excess rain and storms in the warm sector. Would not want to be LOT having to make the call based on the potential cutoff potential if the two waves of precipitation manage to overlap or completely miss some counties.

[LansingWeather]

Man, you just can't beat climo. Lansing always seems to get snow-rain for most of the storm then a few hours of crappy snow behind the storm. Most of that gets swallowed up by the standing water.This is why I am happy I moved away, its like the models mentally abused me lmfao.

I'm pretty impressed a storm in the low 980s to upper 970s has no cold air to work with, and even the warm sector doesnt seem to be too strong. I would have expected 50s in the warm sector up to Michigan with that track, and teens or low 20s on the backside with a storm like this.

980 is not a common storm here, does anyone know how rare that is for this area? I'd guess 90th percentile. Sad to see it be a general run of the mill. I will still be excited to be in a strong mid latitude storm though, its been a while, for me.

Anyway, I am sure the fri-sat storm will be better since I fly out on Thursday.

[cyclone77]

DVN has the point/hourly forecast snowfall amounts up to nearly a foot here, and a few tenths over a foot for the QC.  Seems pretty overdone as most guidance has QPF in the 0.6-0.9" range.  Even accounting for higher LSR during intense banding, that may get canceled out by poor rates in the lulls in intensity many of the models show later tomorrow night into Tuesday.  I'd probably go 6-8" with isolated higher amounts if I were making an official forecast.  If the intensity of the deform band later Tuesday overperforms then DVN could end up being not too far off perhaps.

[KeenerWx]

Trends are bleak locally, but have been out of the “big” game for some time. Still looking forward to what falls. The modest overnight surprise of ~2” brought back memories of being excited over anything weather related. It’s been rather boring lately. 
 

1.7” front-end & 0.5” on the back IMBY call. 

[RCNYILWX]

DVN has the point/hourly forecast snowfall amounts up to nearly a foot here, and a few tenths over a foot for the QC.  Seems pretty overdone as most guidance has QPF in the 0.6-0.9" range.  Even accounting for higher LSR during intense banding, that may get canceled out by poor rates in the lulls in intensity many of the models show later tomorrow night into Tuesday.  I'd probably go 6-8" with isolated higher amounts if I were making an official forecast.  If the intensity of the deform band later Tuesday overperforms then DVN could end up being not too far off perhaps.

With the caveat that I've been off since Thursday and been more casually following than when I'm also working (I'll be back in tomorrow morning), I was a bit surprised how bullish they went with the snow forecast.

You can tell it's an aggressive forecast on the probabilistic winter page, https://www.weather.gov/dvn/winter.
Their expected forecast is not far off from the high end amounts, which are the 90th percentile of the distribution and are closer to the 90th percentile than the low end amounts, the 10th percentile. Ideally, we're probably closer to the middle (50th percentile) of the distribution at this range.

[RCNYILWX]

The 03z RAP had a very impressive depiction of the front end WAA snow tomorrow night. It's a plausible solution, if not in the top end amounts but the idea of several inches, given PWATs nearing 0.7" (0.6" is considered very high for snow), steep mid-upper lapse rates, slantwise and at times upright instability, and strong lift.

For the areas that max out, 1"/hour rates appear likely, and potential for 2"/hour is there.

Was texting with our lead forecaster on midnights for the storm, Carlaw, and he thinks TSSN is a decent bet.

[Radtechwxman]

17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 03z RAP had a very impressive depiction of the front end WAA snow tomorrow night. It's a plausible solution, if not in the top end amounts but the idea of several inches, given PWATs nearing 0.7" (0.6" is considered very high for snow), steep mid-upper lapse rates, slantwise and at times upright instability, and strong lift.

For the areas that max out, 1"/hour rates appear likely, and potential for 2"/hour is there.

Was texting with our lead forecaster on midnights for the storm, Carlaw, and he thinks TSSN is decent bet.





 

Starting to look like the WAA snows will be best of this storm for many, esp my area. Dryslot/mixing is looking to be a real issue here Tues after WAA snows. Deformation zone doesn't seem as impressive as one would think with a low this strong. Guessing maybe occlusion processes cutting off moisture feed too early. Do you think we will see the sfc low track nw of I55 like hrrr/rap/nam are suggesting? Also noticing on these models that the low seems kind of strung out despite being pretty strong. Idk if these models struggle with representing the isobars correctly but the low looks so large on these models. 

[Baum]

We know how this plays out.2.5" of cement on the front end. Over to Rain/ Drizzle with a period of light snow/ wind Tuesday night. Final call:3".

[Imneversatisfied]

Woke up to the pleasant surprise of a Winter Storm Watch being issued and NWS Gaylord making this man child very happy. Lol Just hope it verifies with no NW shift!

After a few days
of waffling back and forth, model consensus has mostly coalesced on
a track across north central lower. This would likely bring the
surface low across the Thumb region which is usually very favorable
for heavy snowfall across much of northern lower and eastern upper
Michigan given the expected ample moisture being transported up from
the south as well as sufficiently cold air. A few outlying solutions
do track the surface low farther northwest across northern lower
which would cut into snowfall amounts and introduce precipitation
type issues but have discounted these solutions for now. So snow is
expected to develop early Tuesday morning and become heavy at times
Tuesday afternoon and evening before diminishing early Wednesday.
Looking at thermal profiles the consistency of the snow is expected
to be heavy/wet which will likely exasperate travel difficulties as
well as possibly lead to isolated power outages (especially given
gusty northeast winds). Wrap around/lake effect snow behind the
system is then expected Wednesday. Inland total snow accumulations
are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range with some spots
possibly seeing close to a foot. Lakeshore areas near Saginaw Bay
will likely see lesser amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range due to a
possible mix with rain and lower qpf amounts. Winter storm watches
will be issued.

[Sciascia]

Quadrant #4 represent!

If this were to pan out (or even potentially change for the “worse,” it’s a tough decision on whether or not I should go to work tomorrow afternoon.

[A-L-E-K]

yellow arrow for mby

finishing the storm without bare grass would be a w here in the city

[WestMichigan]

The Euro and GFS ensemble pressure mean has been fairly consistent
of late and suggests that the low will track from near Chicago to
South Haven the northeast to near Saginaw. North of this track,
the precipitation will be mainly snow. South of the track we`ll
see a snow to rain transition. It`s entirely possible that we
could see several inches of snow accumulation difference between
southern Kent and northern Kent county.

looks like GRR is going to have some fun with this forecast. Someone is almost guaranteed to be mad at the weather guy tomorrow. 

[Cary67]

 Smallest window for front end thump then about 1-3" Tue morning before dry slot and drizzle with switch to light snow at the end. Final call 3.8"

[Harry Perry]

2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

The Euro and GFS ensemble pressure mean has been fairly consistent
of late and suggests that the low will track from near Chicago to
South Haven the northeast to near Saginaw. North of this track,
the precipitation will be mainly snow. South of the track we`ll
see a snow to rain transition. It`s entirely possible that we
could see several inches of snow accumulation difference between
southern Kent and northern Kent county.

looks like GRR is going to have some fun with this forecast. Someone is almost guaranteed to be mad at the weather guy tomorrow. 

Already am. Old trends die hard.

[SolidIcewx]

3 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Already am. Old trends die hard.

We will have our shot end of the week. That storm looks gnarly so far. Will see by Wednesday evening what it’s looking like. Lake effect snow machine should kick in once that brutal cold filters in.

[Harry Perry]

Just now, SolidIcewx said:

We will have our shot end of the week. That storm looks gnarly so far. Will see by Wednesday evening what it’s looking like. Lake effect snow machine should kick in once that brutal cold filters in.

I agree, end of the week looks impressive for us.  
 

My point was - in typical GRR fashion, we will be last to jump on the bandwagon for headlines until the event is damn near underway or nearly over - for the first appreciable snowfall of the season.