psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. If only we had that track in Jan/Feb… 8 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 43 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12z Euro Looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, MN Transplant said: If only we had that track in Jan/Feb… If only there weren't a Low in the Lakes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. Why is it the surface low is ideal, but the mid-levels are a mess? I don't feel like this is just a "it's just not cold enough" situation. To me, it seems like we just simply lack blocking due to a consistently messy Pacific and/or Atlantic...flip a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: If only we had that track in Jan/Feb… Backloaded winter...March is gonna be epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, 87storms said: Why is it the surface low is ideal, but the mid-levels are a mess? I don't feel like this is just a "it's just not cold enough" situation. To me, it seems like we just simply lack blocking due to a consistently messy Pacific and/or Atlantic...flip a coin. Both sides of the same coin. No blocking and too fast pacific 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Where is our nice package right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Todays has been at worst a hold the line day. Actually I think we’ve seen some positives. Perhaps this trends our way as we move forward 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Todays has been at worst a hold the line day. Actually I think we’ve seen some positives. Perhaps this trends our way as we move forward Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. For now… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Terpeast said: Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. For now… The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed Just checked, its a smidge better. Probably noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed Beet juice already down on 66 near centreville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Solution Man said: Beet juice already down on 66 near centreville... They have to get it down fast... They need to make their quota... if they waited another day, they wouldn't be able to spray it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. But it's cold enough close enough, what else other than the boogie man is causing this to not be an all snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Todays has been at worst a hold the line day. Actually I think we’ve seen some positives. Perhaps this trends our way as we move forward I do think perhaps we've reached the end of how bad this can degrade. The track isn't actually trending at all...its just the mid level thermals are trending warmer. There is likely a limit to how far NW of the low the mid level warm layer can get and I think we are close to that now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: They have to get it down fast... They need to make their quota... if they waited another day, they wouldn't be able to spray it. Ok makes perfect sense. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: But it's cold enough close enough, what else other than the boogie man is causing this to not be an all snow event? Not really! Look at our big storms and check the temperature of cities north and west of us. Saturday morning is barely below freezing in Chicago Detroit buffalo and saranac lake. It’s just not cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Where is our nice package right now? @stormtracker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just got the text message for Winter Storm Watch - we shall see... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Buffalo Transplant said: Just got the text message for Winter Storm Watch - we shall see... Where? Never mind I looked up your profile info....Boyce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Check LWX. Hoisted watch for west of 15 I’m just a few miles east. Likely going to get an advisory closer in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Sorry - forgot to update earlier, now living in Ranson, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 MDZ003-004-050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1500Z-240107T0300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Washington and Frederick MD Counties. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 VAZ025-036-037-503-504-508-050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T0900Z-240107T0000Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-038>040-501-505-507-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 050330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1200Z-240107T0000Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, yoda said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. hmmm... sure it'll be refined but I'd consider a light chase if 5"+ ends up being the forecast. just in case... you know... it never snows again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 From 00z to 12z, most of the models settled into a 1 - 3 inch special west of the Blue Ridge in the Central Valley. All except the Euro. It increased my snow from 2.6" to 5 inches! The EPS increased from 3.1 to 4.3. It has increased the qp from .48" to .72" but the borderline 850 and 925 is playing hopscotch all over the place. My forecast west of the BR is 2 - 4". For D.C. proper, a trace to 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: hmmm... sure it'll be refined but I'd consider a light chase if 5"+ ends up being the forecast. just in case... you know... it never snows again. I think they’re hedging on either 5” snow or 0.25” ice. The latter more likely further south. But this doesn’t scream ice storm to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, stormy said: From 00z to 12z, most of the models settled into a 1 - 3 inch special west of the Blue Ridge in the Central Valley. All except the Euro. It increased my snow from 2.6" to 5 inches! The EPS increased from 3.1 to 4.3. It has increased the qp from .48" to .72" but the borderline 850 and 925 is playing hopscotch all over the place. My forecast west of the BR is 2 - 4". For D.C. proper, a trace to 1 inch. Shew, thank goodness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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