Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’ll storm chase to the north shore. Sure 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’ll storm chase to the north shore. Sure 

I remember storm chasing to the barrier islands in February 2010…snow started at the RM causeway 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, psv88 said:

I remember storm chasing to the barrier islands in February 2010…snow started at the RM causeway 

I vaguely remember this. The good old days

[donsutherland1]

Latest EPS and NBE information:

Note: EPS amounts are based on 10:1 ratios. The actual ratios in NYC could be closer to 4:1 to 6:1 given that readings could remain several degrees above freezing throughout most or even all of the storm. In fact, the NBE shows < 0.5" at JFK Airport.

WPC's probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index: Probability of a moderate impact:

It is possible that the 1"+ daily snowfall droughts could continue in parts of the region. Baltimore and Philadelphia are at highest risk, but there is a non-negligible risk at Central Park. The overnight 0z model runs or tomorrow's model cycles could begin to converge toward a consensus. Uncertainty remains higher than usual given the marginal air mass involved and impact that small changes in the track could have on where the precipitation is predominantly liquid or predominantly frozen.

[Rjay]

17 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Such a nail biter for LI 

As are most storms lol 

This one is not exciting at all for our area though.  I like the nw crew getting 6"+.  

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Rjay said:

As are most storms lol 

This one is not exciting at all for our area though.  I like the nw crew getting 6"+.  

I'm praying for a south trend tonight.

[TriPol]

I don’t think nyc sees its first inch of snow yet. Too warm.

[BoulderWX]

NAM long range -  its not very impressive but at the end of its range 

[BoulderWX]

13 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I don’t think nyc sees its first inch of snow yet. Too warm.

Maybe a slushy mix. Doubt most places in NYC see more than a slushy inch or two. 

[BoulderWX]

I meant “not” very impressive. Fixed in previous post. 

[Snowguy66]

I just glanced at the evening model Runs and I thought people were reporting positives but now it looks like moose post are saying that we’re losing the storm. Is that an accurate assumption?


.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

I just glanced at the evening model Runs and I thought people were reporting positives but now it looks like moose post are saying that we’re losing the storm. Is that an accurate assumption?


.

To me not much has changed since a couple days ago. NW areas are favored for significant over 6” snow, near I-95 is the battle area between R/S but may get 1-3” type snow, east and especially SE of there mostly rain. Some pieces may change such as more confluence which might force a SE track but we don’t have much time for that to show up. For the city and east be thrilled with an amount that covers the grass and hopefully isn’t washed away. 

[mikeysed]

RGEM is warm. Least amount for those on the borderline spots immediate tri-state

[Snowlover11]

7 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

RGEM is warm. Least amount for those on the borderline spots immediate tri-state

warm as hell. even immediate north and west areas get hosed. lower westchester, extreme ne nj, rockland.

[jm1220]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

warm as hell. even immediate north and west areas get hosed. lower westchester, extreme ne nj, rockland.

Warm easterly flow initially don’t do any favors. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

is it warm,,,or is it that the track is too far N n W ? Because if this solution is off and the margin for error is 25 or 50 miles ,,I get it NOT a good look ,just sayin 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Warm easterly flow initially don’t do any favors. 

I guess the confluence isn't helping us like previously thought it would be.

[RU848789]

20 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

RGEM is warm. Least amount for those on the borderline spots immediate tri-state

Ignore it, like the NAM, at this range - it's a regional/mesoscale model...

[mannynyc]

Interesting GFS run, starts warmer but seems to end stronger and east.

[cleetussnow]

Looks like the LP is a little more consolidated/stronger this run. Could be good

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Interesting GFS run, starts warmer but seems to end stronger and east.

The trailing vort is getting interesting 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The trailing vort is getting interesting 

This is what I was saying earlier! Like tip from NE said in here. Speed that trailing wave up an it's bombs away! Was close this time 

[mannynyc]

Canadien got way weaker

[RU848789]

Who do I have to pay to have this verify imby, lol?  Incredible gradient from an inch or two (at the end of the storm) ~20 miles SE of me to about 8-10" at my house to over a foot 5 miles north of me.  Insane.  

[mikeysed]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Who do I have to pay to have this verify imby, lol?  Incredible gradient from an inch or two (at the end of the storm) ~20 miles SE of me to about 8-10" at my house to over a foot 5 miles north of me.  Insane.  

Do you have kuchera on pivotal ? Weatherall kuchera is much lower

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Canadien got way weaker

And slightly warmer. Good low position for the coast but mostly rain.

[mannynyc]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

And slightly warmer. Good low position for the coast but mostly rain.

I think the low is too far west for the coast. Unless it's a super strong Low at marginal temps that placements not snow

[RU848789]

7 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Do you have kuchera on pivotal ? Weatherall kuchera is much lower

Yes, but I dislike Kuchera, as it's a lousy algorithm and while it's probably more realistic for this scenario, I prefer knowing how much snow is actually falling (assuming 10:1 ratio) and will do my own analysis of how much of that will likely accumulate, given how many variables there are that Kuchera doesn't take into account, plus some that aren't known well, like intensity.  

[psv88]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Yes, but I dislike Kuchera, as it's a lousy algorithm and while it's probably more realistic for this scenario, I prefer knowing how much snow is actually falling (assuming 10:1 ratio) and will do my own analysis of how much of that will likely accumulate, given how many variables there are that Kuchera doesn't take into account, plus some that aren't known well, like intensity.  

Kuchera takes all of that into account. 

[TriPol]

The GFS is warm and weak. The EURO is colder and stronger. Oh no, the GFS is colder the EURO is warmer. Ah, they’re both too warm. The low is too far east, so it’s suppressed, now it’s too far west and I87 isn’t safe. 4 days out it’s nowcasting time. In a way, I didn’t miss not having something to chase, because of the model chaos. Everything was going fine until someone invoked March 2001. That storm should be banned from ever being mentioned.