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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 image.thumb.png.203011da93f76a47934cf9a847bd230c.png
image.thumb.png.4e2b92a476ad17ff1b4d690c406f8ec6.png

Would this help?

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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We could get 200” over the next 2 months and it will never be a great winter. There’s nothing worse than a short winter or 4-6 weeks.

You can liken it to summer. If you lose June to cold and wet .. all you have are July and August.. And you’ve got in the back of your mind how the late August  sun loses its bite.. and there’s posters talking about leathery leaves and the first cool shot across the bow. 

How would you classify 2014 - 2015?  

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ones that snow frequently from Dec- Feb and Dec codecs few snow events in Morch

Ok; now we are getting somewhere; this should be easy for you; Just state which ones fit your ranking of A/A+.  I'm sure you've had so many during your life so far, they should be on the tip of your tongue...  lol

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I maybe "off" a inch or so on the accumulations for last season, (2022-2023) For Nashua, NH

Nov. 16, 2022=Trace of snow

Dec. 12, 2022=1"

Dec.16, 2022=Slush

Dec.23,2022=Slush/Rapid Freeze

Jan. 6, 2023=1" Slush

Jan.12,2023=1" Slush

Jan. 16,2023=3"+/_

Jan. 20,2023=5"+/-

Jan.23,2023=5"+/-

Feb.21,2023=2"

Feb.23,2023=4" w/change over..Icy

Feb. 28, 2023=3"

Mar. 4, 2023=6.5" +/_

Mar. 15,2023=9"+/-

 

I'm just hanging on, no other choice, no control over it, just stop the freaking Rain!

 

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33 minutes ago, mcap77 said:

All this crying, particularly from areas that do not average much snow in Dec, is comical. I am not nearly as educated as many of the posters on here and will not comment on LR, but will say all it is going to take is one or two decent storm for Southern areas be reach normal or even above normal snowfall to date this early in the season. It is the Northern areas that have more catching up to do. 

Yes the warmth has sucked and yes it has put a damper on the winter feel, but in terms of snowfall (at least IMBY) it has not been a terrible December. We average a bit over 12" in Dec and we are just shy of 12" to date. The lack of retention does suck, but I am far from ready to call this a ratter. We still have plenty of time to turn this around. 

What areas are you referring to? Our area averages 60” a year 

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996.

I think that's the only one in my lifetime that went wire to wire snowstorms, and iirc, we had a pretty good thaw in mid January after the blizzard, maybe 2002-2003 was another? one of those winters was pretty good start to finish in early oughts

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The retention factor is huge, which is why losing December puts a major dent in the winter rating.  Will never be an A, no matter what happens. No one cares about a blue bomb that melts in 2 days in March.  Sure we'll take it, but it's not the same as getting it in DEC. 

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What areas are you referring to? Our area averages 60” a year 

That comment was not specific to you. Much of CT and Eastern Mass does not typically have much snow by this point. All I am saying that getting to normal or even above normal is not out of reach for most of the region. It's going to be harder with marginal temps, yes, but it can work as we get deeper into the peak of winter. 

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We could get 200” over the next 2 months and it will never be a great winter. There’s nothing worse than a short winter or 4-6 weeks.

You can liken it to summer. If you lose June to cold and wet .. all you have are July and August.. And you’ve got in the back of your mind how the late August  sun loses its bite.. and there’s posters talking about leathery leaves and the first cool shot across the bow. 

This post needs to be preserved and archived so it can be pulled out and referenced over many future summer and winter months and enjoyed by all over and over again.  

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It will be interesting to see over the coming years how much CC is affecting the viability of analogs. 
 

While still potentially useful on a hemispheric scale, it’s almost like you have to adjust for current temps.

Basically, the bad patterns are much worse, because instead of +2, it’s now +6, which makes sneaking even a mediocre event much more difficult.

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19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That was the Jan 4 through 6 threat she gone . Guess it’s time to change my profile image 

I cannot even identify any of the entities that were previously on the charts.  It's like something's come along and completely scrambled everything oblivion.    Nothing is there that was there two days, absolutely.

strange -

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2 hours ago, mcap77 said:

All this crying, particularly from areas that do not average much snow in Dec, is comical. I am not nearly as educated as many of the posters on here and will not comment on LR, but will say all it is going to take is one or two decent storm for Southern areas be reach normal or even above normal snowfall to date this early in the season. It is the Northern areas that have more catching up to do. 

Yes the warmth has sucked and yes it has put a damper on the winter feel, but in terms of snowfall (at least IMBY) it has not been a terrible December. We average a bit over 12" in Dec and we are just shy of 12" to date. The lack of retention does suck, but I am far from ready to call this a ratter. We still have plenty of time to turn this around. 

I average 10 to 12 and nada so far Brutal December 

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