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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS.  No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño.  Next year we go right back to strong Nina.  Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity

The ENSO models are gonna be brutally wrong if we get a strong Nina...not a single one really brings us below -0.8

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12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS.  No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño.  Next year we go right back to strong Nina.  Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity

Well, given how much tropical activity is expected, its worth considering that high ACE La Nina seasons have been pretty good in the east.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may lose it if we find our way to February with nothing imminent after having succeeded in pulling that off....this is about the point at which I came unhinged last year.

18z GFS repeats that motif...  Impressive +d(PNA) -->  zero restoring response-related events, anywhere.  

Bit unusual ... but then again, we seem to live in an era where unusual sentiment has become usual. 

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8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like a couple light events and maybe some light rain for NNE. Hope they can hold the pack for the first week in Feb 

Doubtful. What kind of discount are you running for your reservations?

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13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like a couple light events and maybe some light rain for NNE. Hope they can hold the pack for the first week in Feb 

NNE won’t lose any pack between now and 2/1. Remains to be seen how warm it gets beyond that….somewhere after the first few days of the month looks warm. 

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Ray, many have had it much worse than you with a near HECS.  No one expected normal snowfall this year with the strong El Niño.  Next year we go right back to strong Nina.  Not sure how we break this with AGW running away and increasing thermal activity

Can’t shake all the warm waters in awful mjo phases 

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Can’t shake all the warm waters in awful mjo phases 

This winter isn't over and I still feel snowfall makes a nice comeback.....but that said, regardless of what happens from here on out...my largest lesson gleaned this season is with respect to the how interpret the MEI/RONI concepts. I have always perceived it as lower readings of those metrics was synonymous with a simply weaker expression of ENSO, however, Bluewave really cystralized it with me in describing lower MEI/RONI as reflective instead  of "competing forces".

Just that two word clarification will make me a better seasonal forecaster moving forward.

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8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 voodoo

Probably the most accurate thing you’ve said all winter. Enso, mei, mjo, it’s all voodoo. It’s as accurate as the junkies giving gambling pics on the 1-800 line, sports pundits giving predictions during the pre-game show, or Jim Cramer. Info-tainment I call it.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This winter isn't over and I still feel snowfall makes a nice comeback.....but that said, regardless of what happens from here on out...my largest lesson gleaned this season is with respect to the how interpret the MEI/RONI concepts. I have always perceived it as lower readings of those metrics was synonymous with a simply weaker expression of ENSO, however, Bluewave really cystralized it with me in describing lower MEI/RONI as reflective instead  of "competing forces".

Just that two word explanation will make me a better seasonal forecaster moving forward.

Your seasonal stuff has been excellent to read. I don’t do long range stuff but applaud the ones that do.  If you’re wrong you get called out and if you’re correct it gets forgotten about. 
 

@bluewave seems to be one step ahead of everyone currently. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Your seasonal stuff has been excellent to read. I don’t do long range stuff but applaud the ones that do.  If you’re wrong you get called out and if you’re correct it gets forgotten about. 
 

@bluewave seems to be one step ahead of everyone currently. 

What is Bluewave saying for Feb

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Your seasonal stuff has been excellent to read. I don’t do long range stuff but applaud the ones that do.  If you’re wrong you get called out and if you’re correct it gets forgotten about. 
 

@bluewave seems to be one step ahead of everyone currently. 

We were more on the same page than it ostensibly seemed, but my perception of what exactly the RONI and MEI were trying to convey was a bit astray, which impacted my interpretation of which hemispheric elements would be most prominent this year. 

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3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Probably the most accurate thing you’ve said all winter. Enso, mei, mjo, it’s all voodoo. It’s as accurate as the junkies giving gambling pics on the 1-800 line, sports pundits giving predictions during the pre-game show, or Jim Cramer. Info-tainment I call it.

It's "voodoo" on a regional scale, usually.  Not always

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This winter isn't over and I still feel snowfall makes a nice comeback.....but that said, regardless of what happens from here on out...my largest lesson gleaned this season is with respect to the how interpret the MEI/RONI concepts. I have always perceived it as lower readings of those metrics was synonymous with a simply weaker expression of ENSO, however, Bluewave really cystralized it with me in describing lower MEI/RONI as reflective instead  of "competing forces".

Just that two word clarification will make me a better seasonal forecaster moving forward.

What would you change this year based on that idea?

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5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

It's "voodoo" on a regional scale, usually.  Not always

Pretty much. Macro forecasting is typically easier because you don’t have to worry about smaller scale nuances that can’t be predicted in advance. Stuff like NAO blocks have proven time and again to be mostly stochastic. 

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12 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

sports pundits giving predictions during the pre-game show,

This is a great analogy.  Guys like Jimmy Johnson and Bill Cowher have a thousand times the football knowledge compared with myself....probably more.  Are they better than me at picking games?   Not by one iota.

It goes to show ya.  Predictions are hard....especially about the future.

 

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1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

What would you change this year based on that idea?

A lot of it would have been with respect to the narrative in how I explained things....less emphasis on a "weaker" expression of El Niño resulting from the west PAC warm pool and more emphasis on the El Niño having to compete with it. I guess it just has more to do with my understanding and conceptualization of the El Niño/hemisphere interface., which will make my forecasts in the future better. As far as the forecast itself this season, I would have emphasized 2015 more as an eary season analog and been warmer.

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