CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 George likes his winters snowy! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, George001 said: It’s just too warm. You are correct that the pattern changed, but it wasn’t until like a week ago. the pattern didn't fail because it was too warm. it's way more than cold enough it's because of crappy little nuances that are impossible to forecast more than 10 days out, like the positioning of the TPV, the exact height of the western ridge, and the interplay between shortwaves 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 We've had a couple of favourable periods since post Christmas. I didn't see anything out of those but that doesn't mean it wasn't favouable. You guys cashed in some during January. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: looks to be snowing fairly good in Westfield https://www.westfieldwebcam.com/ Husband said there was a good band that moved through, but it's super light now. Same in Simsbury, the intensity is way less than an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, CoastalWx said: @powderfreak Does Mansfield keep the snow data somewhere? BTV just has depth. You know it’s been a tough time in SEMATT when TFlizz frequently books N Conway vacations while Scooter asks PF for Mt Mansfield snow data. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's been decent for a chunk of the area anyways. I've definitely had worse, but came up short so far. ORH has over 20" for the month to date....and obviously some points over the interior toward Ray and up into CNE have over 20" on the month as well. Coastline and SE MA and back to the south coast has def been screwed though. Today is a perfect example of missing on a very favorable longwave look. You have a ridge out west, you have a decaying NAO block over Hudson Bay, you have very cold air in place and low heights out to the 50/50 region....but we whiffed because the 50/50 low didn't separate enough from the PV lobe dropping into the midwest. If it had, you'd be talking a major snowstorm and the rhetoric in here would be totally different. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: George likes his winters snowy! Yes and his snows to be east of the lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: a favorable pattern does not guarantee favorable results. it just increases the odds. how many times does this need to be said? it's so disingenuous to imply that those that forecasted a favorable pattern were wrong. that's BS I was not wrong when I, and many others, said that the pattern would be favorable. it was, and we got fucked. that's all there is to say, and it's frustrating Once again, I’ll consider it a favorable pattern when we get 3+ weeks of sustained BN temps. A one week window of opportunity in a sea of shit doesn’t count. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, George001 said: The constant moving of the goalposts and downplaying the warmth is annoying. All you do is post how the pattern is going to be favorable, and you have been wrong every time. It’s been happening for 2 years now. You seriously need to move away from the water... coastal plain, whatever lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, George001 said: Once again, I’ll consider it a favorable pattern when we get 3+ weeks of sustained BN temps. A one week window of opportunity in a sea of shit doesn’t count. that's not how that works. read Will's post above since you seem to not want to hear it from me 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH has over 20" for the month to date....and obviously some points over the interior toward Ray and up into CNE have over 20" on the month as well. Coastline and SE MA and back to the south coast has def been screwed though. Today is a perfect example of missing on a very favorable longwave look. You have a ridge out west, you have a decaying NAO block over Hudson Bay, you have very cold air in place and low heights out to the 50/50 region....but we whiffed because the 50/50 low didn't separate enough from the PV lobe dropping into the midwest. If it had, you'd be talking a major snowstorm and the rhetoric in here would be totally different. exactly. it's really frustrating, but everything was in place for a big one and the minute details just didn't line up. the overall pattern was very good, but you still need everything to come together 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH has over 20" for the month to date....and obviously some points over the interior toward Ray and up into CNE have over 20" on the month as well. Coastline and SE MA and back to the south coast has def been screwed though. Today is a perfect example of missing on a very favorable longwave look. You have a ridge out west, you have a decaying NAO block over Hudson Bay, you have very cold air in place and low heights out to the 50/50 region....but we whiffed because the 50/50 low didn't separate enough from the PV lobe dropping into the midwest. If it had, you'd be talking a major snowstorm and the rhetoric in here would be totally different. Yep sucks. Kills me lol, but out of my hands. Just over 7" here this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH has over 20" for the month to date....and obviously some points over the interior toward Ray and up into CNE have over 20" on the month as well. Coastline and SE MA and back to the south coast has def been screwed though. Today is a perfect example of missing on a very favorable longwave look. You have a ridge out west, you have a decaying NAO block over Hudson Bay, you have very cold air in place and low heights out to the 50/50 region....but we whiffed because the 50/50 low didn't separate enough from the PV lobe dropping into the midwest. If it had, you'd be talking a major snowstorm and the rhetoric in here would be totally different. I agree with this, todays threat was legitimately a favorable look and we just got unlucky. The bigger issue though is the fact that we have been AN temps for 5 weeks and BN for one week. It’s without a doubt been better for you guys than me, but how much of that snow you got is on the ground right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12z GGEM 'detecting' the 29/30th system chance ... The long lead is caveat emptor. But there's a robust PNA -driven signal for that period of time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 32 minutes ago, George001 said: Once again, I’ll consider it a favorable pattern when we get 3+ weeks of sustained BN temps. A one week window of opportunity in a sea of shit doesn’t count. George, everyone's frustrated. We're all on this forum for the same reasons, well the majority of us lol. Having sustained cold and sustained snow......that's not the reality of our winters. More often than not, the winters are not a sustained cold snowy winter. Snow and cold and then there's going to be periods of milder temperatures with rain. Does it suck that this year is somewhat following last year, yes. But it is better than last year already. The issue I have with your responses is that you're very upset that we're not getting the snowy pattern and instead of being constructive with others, you're being kind of snappy. Take a chill pill. I'm assuming you're younger than most of us just by your posts. Trust me, there'll be a good winter and it'll take care of all of your ill feelings and all will be forgotten. Also, we're not done with this winter. We do have all of February and even March. The fact that we had one of our biggest blizzards in the history of any storms in March just shows you that it's not over. And as far as what the models are showing now, you know You know better than that. Than to just take what they're saying today and run with it. They're going to flip flop. They're probably not going to be the one extreme or the other extreme they're going to be in the middle. Give it time young man. And treat others with respect when you talk to them. If they're giving you respectful answers, you should be giving them some respect back. But that comes with growing up. I'm sure you'll get there. Now carry on 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I have measured 13" of snow in Brattleboro since moving up here, considering the fact there have only been 7 recorded winter events between Nov.1-Dec.31 (amounts locked behind a $205 paywall, eff that), I got to imagine that most of what we have recorded in this area is the reports I been sending to NWS Albany since the 6th storm... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that's not how that works. read Will's post above since you seem to not want to hear it from me Ok…. You know what? I think we are just focused on different things. It’s not just the lack of snow, it’s the AN temps that are an issue for me. Ok, let’s say things broke right and I got a blizzard today. My weather app has me back into the 40s and 50s next week. That is supported by the cross guidance agreement of a warm up next week. The snow would have just melted away. The constant warmth makes so even when we get there small favorable windows, even if it works out we can’t actually maintain a snowpack. That’s completely fair, if you care about snow more than temps I can’t really argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that's not how that works. read Will's post above since you seem to not want to hear it from me What George appears to be demonstrating in his responses is quite common among the plebeian perspectives over ...pretty much anything in reality. They stop their analysis at whatever is downloaded through their god -given USB ports: sight, sound, hearing, touch or taste. It may be an aptitude thing? It may be an emotional thing clouding judgement...? But either way, both are commonly found in the commoner ilk of intellectual limitations: they don't do as well with nuanced thinking, particularly if it has to process observed information that they don't even really understand the origin of in the first place. So, ...in essence, you're engaged in an non-influence-able discussion with someone incapable of 'getting it'. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, George001 said: Ok…. You know what? I think we are just focused on different things. It’s not just the lack of snow, it’s the AN temps that are an issue for me. Ok, let’s say things broke right and I got a blizzard today. My weather app has me back into the 40s and 50s next week. That is supported by the cross guidance agreement of a warm up next week. The snow would have just melted away. The constant warmth makes so even when we get there small favorable windows, even if it works out we can’t actually maintain a snowpack. 1) We are warming so deal with it. Even if our warming is totally accelerated but short term decadal cycles. 2) you aren't in a great pack area. Go to Dave's place if you want that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Nice little moderate burst downtown now. Beautiful out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 2) you aren't in a great pack area. Go to Dave's place if you want that. This ^ If it's really that important to you George, move. Move up to NNE, northern VT, Buffalo..... I suspect you'll be a much happier person in the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 30 and dim sum 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 We got measurable, just about .2 Very light snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 1) We are warming so deal with it. Even if our warming is totally accelerated but short term decadal cycles. 2) you aren't in a great pack area. Go to Dave's place if you want that. I don’t disagree with any of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: 30 and dim sum 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Quarter inch or so light snow covered the old snow, refreshed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’d be very careful . Not too long ago someone made a Chinese food joke and was called a flat out racist . Tread lightly 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What George appears to be demonstrating in his responses is quite common among the plebeian perspectives over ...pretty much anything in reality. They stop their analysis at whatever is downloaded through their god -given USB ports: sight, sound, hearing, touch or taste. It may be an aptitude thing? It may be an emotional thing clouding judgement...? But either way, both are commoner ilk of intellect limitations: they don't do as well with nuanced thinking, particularly if it has to process observed information that they don't even really understand the origin of in the first place. So, ...in essence, you're engaged in an non-influence-able discussion with someone incapable of 'getting it'. Having a different way of grading how good a pattern is makes me dumb? All this talk about the pattern is just dancing around what the real problem is, which is CC. It’s not just bad luck, you even said it yourself. You are the guy who’s always talking about the speed of the flow being a limiting factor, and the role CC plays in it. So patterns that worked in the past no longer work. I’m probably oversimplifying things, but that’s what I got out of your posts. If it makes me stupid to question whether or not we had a favorable pattern when the temp anomalies for the winter are roughly +4 so far makes me stupid, then yeah I guess I’m dumb as shit. I prefer to look at the big picture rather than the smaller details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GEFS are ugly. Can't believe how quick we lost that EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, George001 said: Having a different way of grading how good a pattern is makes me dumb? All this talk about the pattern is just dancing around what the real problem is, which is CC. It’s not just bad luck, you even said it yourself. You are the guy who’s always talking about the speed of the flow being a limiting factor, and the role CC plays in it. So patterns that worked in the past no longer work. I’m probably oversimplifying things, but that’s what I got out of your posts. I think he's just saying you're expecting too much for where you live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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