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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I think it was Will that had mentioned and can correct me if i don't have it right, That the NAO was heading negative and there was a HP over the davis staits that models would have a tough time resolving from a long lead

Yes, and more recently I think we trended away a bit from that high-pressure being in the right spot? At least that’s how I was reading it, but many were focused on the Sunday storm.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Yes, and more recently I think we trended away a bit from that high-pressure being in the right spot? At least that’s how I was reading it, but many were focused on the Sunday storm.

I had been looking past saturdays a bit as this one had more potential but will now pay more attention to it.

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That blocking needs to build westerly to both suppress that track a bit, but also help slide some cold underneath it into SE Canada. So that is what to look for. What you don't want is the PV where it is and have the blocking just start to come in. 

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22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And then throw this over the top of Weds, And you can catch climo avg real quick.

65984e8cc28ba.png

Nice weenie blue dot for me.  Verbatim this would cancel a trip I have planned to scooter-ville Saturday night.  Not for the driving, but for the obs duties.  Backup observer out of town for the holiday weekend.

Weenie wants this, brain does not.

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35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That is actually the first time the Euro has had any CAD signature for this one, That would really set the stage with the pasty look and then hard freeze that before the one on the 13th, It would be off to the races.

I mentioned yesterday it would be a few days before models had a handle on the CAD. That's a decently cold airmass in place prior and had the look of something models would underestimate until we got closer in. 

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1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I mentioned yesterday it would be a few days before models had a handle on the CAD. That's a decently cold airmass in place prior and had the look of something models would underestimate until we got closer in. 

Yes, As they do on many occasions, Lets hope we can get this to build on the model runs going forward, Could be some really good times.

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That blocking needs to build westerly to both suppress that track a bit, but also help slide some cold underneath it into SE Canada. So that is what to look for. What you don't want is the PV where it is and have the blocking just start to come in. 

EPS does just that

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5147200.thumb.png.b2b9b34671f730be557e4d5402adce9d.png

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I like the 13th period. GEFS mean cuts to the lakes but it's been very consistent on the OP runs except for a few runs yesterday. Transfers the low to the benchmark, cold air in Canada, I like that period for a region wide event. 

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9 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I like the 13th period. GEFS mean cuts to the lakes but it's been very consistent on the OP runs except for a few runs yesterday. Transfers the low to the benchmark, cold air in Canada, I like that period for a region wide event. 

We pray

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52 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Big snows for whites on euro wow

My heart is growing frail, don’t do this to me. :)

JK I’m starting to care less every year that I’m up here. But snow is nice, and especially nice for my business lol. And flooding is bad, very bad. 

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