ILoveWinter Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Why am I getting weenied for posting the gefs ? Well snowman pretty much always weenies you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euros a big rainstorm that tries to flip to snow at the end for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Euros a big rainstorm that tries to flip to snow at the end for Sunday inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euros a big rainstorm that tries to flip to snow at the end for Sunday because the storm is coming out of the southwest faster than the previous 0Z Euro run allowing it to cut- this could still change back to a slower further south redevelopment in future runs allowing the HP to set up shop in southeast Canada faster forcing redevelopment further south of us - still a lot of time left...... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 38 degrees right now feels balmy after the last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I do NOT think our winter weather or wintry precip is over here in the NYC Metro Region. The models are showing an active storm track developing across the south and fresh cold high pressure systems keep getting pulled southeastward from eastern and central Canada. We will just need some timing cooperation. For January 28th it looks just a hair too warm to me at the start but it could end as snow, even maybe accumulating snow in some locations. As we work our way into February things might get better with the timing. Though temperatures could quite possibly continue to average near or slightly above normal. WX/PT 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: inland runner Eps also but plenty of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 1 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We done 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: inland runner Besides the glaring antecedent cold air issues, the setup is absolutely horrible, the trough orientation, NAO, AO, EPO, WPO, MJO, PAC jet, NO 50/50 low, the only thing it has going for it is a temporary +PNA spike that gets crashed into by the raging PAC jet extension, which deamplifys it and makes the pattern extremely progressive. Hard sell on a snowstorm anywhere near the NYC metro area 1/28-1/30 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 As an fyi: 12z/22 EPS has temporarily increased snow depth change to the nw of the subforum and WPC responded with a very low prob of 3+ in the mountains or it could be quarter inch ice-snow water equiv which I think seeps into the I84 area. Door is still open for a minor tail end snow NYC Sun night or Monday with pretty decent CAA Monday following the event, whatever it is. No thread but the GFS has had this from time to time the past 2-3 days and the uncertainty is very large with preceding warmth. In the meantime... minor small stream flood potential exists Friday-weekend in NJ/PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A milder pattern is now developing. The temperature topped out at 38° in Central Park. Even balmier readings lie ahead for later this week when the warmth crests on Friday. Temperatures could peak in the middle and upper 50s in New York City and Newark and 60s from Philadelphia southward on Friday. Somewhat cooler air will arrive during the weekend. This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. A storm could bring moderate to perhaps significant precipitation to the region from Wednesday night into Friday morning. Ahead of the storm, some ice and sleet is likely far north and west of New York City and Newark, mainly from the Hudson Valley north and westward from late tomorrow into Wednesday from a weaker wave that will precede the storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade. The SOI was +0.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.586 today. On January 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.838 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.875 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.4° (2.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18Z GFS (with outdated Radiosonde data ) shows that the HP forced the LP to develop further south thus rain changing to snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Phase 6 is cold for February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: We done Then log off 4 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z GFS (with outdated Radiosonde data ) shows that the HP forced the LP to develop further south thus rain changing to snow And that model is playing right to its usual bias of suppression and too far east at this range. I’m sure everyone is shocked 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Besides the glaring antecedent cold air issues, the setup is absolutely horrible, the trough orientation, NAO, AO, EPO, WPO, MJO, PAC jet, NO 50/50 low, the only thing it has going for it is a temporary +PNA spike that gets crashed into by the raging PAC jet extension, which deamplifys it and makes the pattern extremely progressive. Hard sell on a snowstorm anywhere near the NYC metro area 1/28-1/30 Thank you S19. I hadn’t had the pleasure of that word before. Stay well, as always … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Besides the glaring antecedent cold air issues, the setup is absolutely horrible, the trough orientation, NAO, AO, EPO, WPO, MJO, PAC jet, NO 50/50 low, the only thing it has going for it is a temporary +PNA spike that gets crashed into by the raging PAC jet extension, which deamplifys it and makes the pattern extremely progressive. Hard sell on a snowstorm anywhere near the NYC metro area 1/28-1/30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And that model is playing right to its usual bias of suppression and too far east at this range. I’m sure everyone is shocked how about when the EURO was suppressed and too far east with last weeks storm at this range and the GFS was not ? Make sense out of that...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Another run where the warmup vanished in the mid to long range 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I'm semi confused why the Op GFS is so consistently going relatively cold....often times you can look to the model MJO idea but if anything the GFS progression should argue more for warmth than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I'm semi confused why the Op GFS is so consistently going relatively cold....often times you can look to the model MJO idea but if anything the GFS progression should argue more for warmth than the Euro. the other members of the ensembles showing the same ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: i have been saying for a while february is one of the jersey shore’s best months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the other members of the ensembles showing the same ? Mixed...I just looked from 190-204 the Op has the trof a bit more west than the ensemble average does but many individual members are similar to the Op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 i have been saying for a while february is one of the jersey shore’s best monthsYou would think summer would draw more Jersey Shore viewers than in February? I thought MTV took that show off years ago. Apparently we have a “situation”.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: You would think summer would draw more Jersey Shore viewers than in February? I thought MTV took that show off years ago. Apparently we have a “situation”. . I still watch that show 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 As there seems to be some confusion regarding MJO Phase 6 in February, first here are CPC's 3-month charts centered around February: Below are the 500 mb height anomalies for February 1990-2023 (Phase 6, Amplitude 1.000 or Above): Below are the surface temperature anomalies for February 1990-2023 (Phase 6, Amplitude 1.000 or Above): Sample size for the February MJO Phase 6 cases shown above was 98. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Haha. @MJO812 did you even look to see if p6 was cold In February? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha. @MJO812 did you even look to see if p6 was cold In February? So do we challenge for 80 in Feb? What the hell ever happened to winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Haha. [mention=186]MJO812[/mention] did you even look to see if p6 was cold In February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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