NJwx85 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The closest thing I recall where 2 massive cutters happened and a few days later that was snow was probably 2/2/96, there were 2 huge cutters between 1/20-1/27 After the Mother of all snowstorms a few weeks prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave end of the eps definitely showing the warmth from p4 The EPS and GEPS get very ugly after 1/21. I agree with you that something needs to happen by 1/20. If it doesn’t, to expect some miracle, storybook finish in February would be an extremely tall order. Again, assuming next week’s setup is correct, to get nothing out of that would be quite a shock but I guess stranger things have happened 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The EPS and GEPS get very ugly after 1/21. I agree with you that something needs to happen by 1/20. If it doesn’t, to expect some miracle, storybook finish in February would be an extremely tall order. Again, assuming next week’s setup is correct, to get nothing out of that would be quite a shock but I guess stranger things have happenedLet’s just get through the next ten days before you start getting excited for warmth again. (Not saying you’re wrong, just one thing at a time). 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 19 minutes ago, North and West said: Let’s just get through the next ten days before you start getting excited for warmth again. (Not saying you’re wrong, just one thing at a time) . Agree. Let him and his fiancé enjoy their wedding instead of obsessing about warmth for once. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Will review again and at 8pm will probably start a thread. Just need a little more time to review. Have a day Walt, if we can get a decent cutter to come across that polar air in the midwest and drag it over the Appalachians, we are in the game for some decent and memorable snowfall events after next Tuesday. Many posters either do not remember 96 or were not alive but I sure the hell do. It only takes one good cutter with a deep trough and an -NAO to phase LP's some good storms along the east coast. We just need some of that polar air to get the engine fine tuned. That polar air locked in the midwest and Ohio Valley IMHO next week transferring just a few days over to us by a clipper would be like putting is like putting Sea Foam in your V8 carburetor. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave end of the eps definitely showing the warmth from p4 it's rather transient, though... by the time you get into that pattern, the Aleutian low is already taking shape and will raise heights over the WC and AK. the transition happens quickly on the weeklies, and this favorable Aleutian Low pattern remains through February as HL blocking reloads so, yes, we will relax, but it won't be for very long. tropical forcing is flying through the unfavorable phases on all ensembles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave end of the eps definitely showing the warmth from p4 You can see the latest EPS weeklies following the MJO with a lag. Jan 15-22…Lagged P3 Jan 22-29….Lagged….P 4-5 blend Jan 29-Feb 6…..Lagged P 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Walt, if we can get a decent cutter to come across that polar air in the midwest and drag it over the Appalachians, we are in the game for some decent and memorable snowfall events after next Tuesday. Many posters either do not remember 96 or were not alive but I sure the hell do. It only takes one good cutter with a deep trough and an -NAO to phase LP's some good storms along the east coast. We just need some of that polar air to get the engine fine tuned. That polar air locked in the midwest and Ohio Valley IMHO next week transferring just a few days over to us by a clipper would be like putting is like putting Sea Foam in your V8 carburetor. LOLI remember 1996 clearly, but didn’t realize the science behind it then. Good information, thank you!. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Ensemble support for a possible January 16-17, 2024 snow event has increased among the EPS members. The ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) snowfall forecast has also improved for the timeframe over the past 24 hours. These are encouraging developments, but it is premature to reach concrete and detailed conclusions about the possible event. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Ensemble support for a possible January 16-17, 2024 snow event has increased among the EPS members. The ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) snowfall forecast has also improved for the timeframe over the past 24 hours. These are encouraging developments, but it is premature to reach concrete and detailed conclusions about the possible event. Every now and then I learn about a model tool I never knew existed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: Walt, if we can get a decent cutter to come across that polar air in the midwest and drag it over the Appalachians, we are in the game for some decent and memorable snowfall events after next Tuesday. Many posters either do not remember 96 or were not alive but I sure the hell do. It only takes one good cutter with a deep trough and an -NAO to phase LP's some good storms along the east coast. We just need some of that polar air to get the engine fine tuned. That polar air locked in the midwest and Ohio Valley IMHO next week transferring just a few days over to us by a clipper would be like putting is like putting Sea Foam in your V8 carburetor. LOL I was thinking this. The cutters are change agents to a degree, and I don't know if it's the case, but perhaps the 2 cutters in a row are in tandem pattern drivers, not just the one coming up. I can see the cold load out west after the first one, and reload there and press east with the second one, so maybe that's a fact? Is that what's happening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The closest thing I recall where 2 massive cutters happened and a few days later that was snow was probably 2/2/96, there were 2 huge cutters between 1/20-1/27 that was a fun time, we had a severe wx warning in January after the blizzard and then back to heavy snow for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It would be a real shame if we couldn’t connect with at least one of the multiple waves next week when 1-4-96 shows up as one of the analogs on the CPC day 6-10 forecast composite. wild to have 1996 as an analog during a strong el nino lol I see a bunch of interesting analogs in here both 1/4/96 and 2/1/96 wow and 1/1961 thrown in there too? as well as 1978 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html No matter our outcome for snow around here a notable cold shot will be affecting the central/western states and then will be moving eastward, albeit modified. Some record cold across the nations mid section and down to the Gulf Coast. Any snow cover laid down in front of it will only intensify the cold, especially overnight lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 I'll get the thread up for 1/15-16 snow event, I95 west NC to BOS,,,,, possibly including NYC and LI. 12Z EPS is quite strong, CMCE came up, GEFS is missing this one I think. Despite the GEFS miss, 12z NAEFS (GEFS-CMCE blend) now has at least 0.2" outlooked I95 east. WPC followed suit. Just have some family stuff prior to the starter thread. Attached a prob of 4" for 24 hours from EPS ending 12z/17. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Gfs more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS is caving to ECMWF and adopting the idea of a trailing wave... this allows for a much favorable height configuration downstream, establishing confluence sooner and encouraging a colder, farther south storm that will be able to amplify without warming as quickly the GFS and ECMWF are actually quite similar at this point 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 That is pretty much in the good old days where I expect the GFS to be with both potential systems at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, MANDA said: I’m rooting for my weather app! what model does this use? or does it calculate the average of all the ensemble means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Pretty confident that the record at CPK will end by the end of the month. Whether it be next Tue or sometime shortly after. The cold appears to finally be coming back for real. I think next Tuesday will be day 700? A nice round number to end it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z GFS out to sea with both systems. but we know thats what we want at this range, i think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: 18z GFS out to sea with both systems. but we know thats what we want at this range, i think the GFS has always been progressive with EC coastals. like for the last 15 years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GFS has always been progressive with EC coastals. like for the last 15 years there's a reason why this problem never got fixed but I forgot why? I think it had something to do with the fact that when they tried to fix it, it caused an excessive amount of tropical cyclone development on the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GFS has always been progressive with EC coastals. like for the last 15 years Didn’t the GFS show 1/29/22 going way OOS consistently until like 24 hours prior to the start of snowfall? I distinctly remember that for some reason and it kept people on edge. And I think it actually had the storm first before the Euro like ten days out, then lost it. I have saved graphics somewhere from all the steps along the way, was a very fun event to track. I remember the phase was very up in the air and inconsistent between model runs, and we were all glued to that in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The GFS loves doing this and the new upgrade did nothing to help the issue. I forget which storm it was (few years ago) but that was the only time I can ever remember the GFS being on its own and scoring a win against the EURO/CMC/UKMET/ICON with showing a possible east coast storm being a miss OTS while the others kept showing hits 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The GFS loves doing this and the new upgrade did nothing to help the issue. I forget which storm it was (few years ago) but that was the only time I can ever remember the GFS being on its own and scoring a win against the EURO/CMC/UKMET/ICON with showing a possible east coast storm being a miss OTS while the others kept showing hits It also tends to be stubborn too...I've seen it not cave til 54-60 hours out many times 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 at least the GFS has a predictable bias and you can forecast against it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Another strong storm will bring additional rain and wind to the region Friday into Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. In addition, the temperature will again surge into the 50s across the region. Coastal flooding appears likely. Meanwhile, a genuine Arctic air mass will be slowly advancing into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. Afterward, this cold air could come eastward in modified fashion. That could set the stage for the coldest period so far this winter beginning on Sunday or Monday. There is a chance that the low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the middle of next week. Prospects for at least some snowfall could increase after the weekend. One such opportunity exists for January 16-17. Filtering for teleconnections (AO -3.5 to -1.5, NAO-, and PNA+ as currently forecast by the GEFS), there were 9 storms that brought 2" or more snow to at least one of the following cities during January 5-25, 1950-2023: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or Washington, DC. Those cities fared as follows: Boston: 2" or more: 67%; 4" or more: 44%; 6" or more: 11% New York City: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% Philadelphia: 2" or more: 33%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% Washington, DC: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% The 6"+ storm was the legendary January 1996 blizzard. Developments in coming days will be crucial in determining whether this latest opportunity for snowfall will be realized or if the region's snow drought will continue. For now, nothing is cast in stone, as can be seen from the dramatic differences between the January 10 12z and 18z runs of the GFS Model. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +1.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.212 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Through January 10th, the AO has been negative on 66% of days and at or below -1.000 on 49% of days. On January 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.929 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.261 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (0.8° above normal). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Gfs has a clipper dropping down at 180 hours. Haven't seen those in years. Deep winter coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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