January 2024

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t had a warm and dry winter since 2001-2002. All our warm winters since then have been wet with either snow or rain. Probably the most winter bike rides that I ever got in on the Long Beach boardwalk. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1900-1901	4.22	0
2	2001-2002	4.88	0
3	1958-1959	5.28	0
4	1871-1872	5.41	0
5	1979-1980	5.45	0
6	1955-1956	5.97	0
7	1943-1944	6.13	0
8	1876-1877	6.40	0
9	1988-1989	6.45	0
10	1946-1947	6.59	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0

I had roses blooming in my backyard in 2001-02 right up to New Years.  And the first crocuses bloomed in my front yard in late February.  The shortest nongrowing season I have ever experienced.  Can you confirm this, Chris.... what was the shortest interval between our first freeze and our last freeze, was it in 2001-02?

That was an unreal "winter" even with our recent trend towards warmer winters, nothing has come close to matching it.  Sort of like how even with our trend to warmer summers none has matched 2010 yet.

 

[psv88]

Didn’t even hit freezing last night. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 66 (2013)
MNYC: 64 (2006)
LGA: 63 (2006)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1935)
NYC: 2 (1873)
NYC: 4 (1948)

 

Historical:

 

1936 - Birmingham, AL, established a single storm record and 24 hour record with 11 inches of snow. (29th-30th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1966: The Blizzard of 1966 impacted New York and paralyzed the region. The train service was disrupted. Numerous highways, the New York State Thruway from Albany to the Pennsylvania state line, and the Buffalo Airport and other airports throughout western and central New York were closed. The Syracuse-Oswego area's hardest hit, where Bob Sykes, a meteorology professor at the State University of New York at Oswego, reported a whopping 102.4 inches! Some schools in Orleans County were closed for the entire week following the blizzard. Economic loss from the storm was estimated at $35 million. Winds gusting to 60 mph and temperatures in the teens, and heavy and blowing snow created severe blizzard conditions.

1977 - The great "Buffalo Blizzard" finally abated after three days. The storm added a foot of new snow to 33 inches already on the ground. Winds gusting to 75 mph reduced visibilities to near zero, produced snow drifts twenty-five feet high, and kept wind chill readings 50 degrees below zero. The blizzard paralyzed the city, and caused 250 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A winter storm brought more heavy snow to the North Atlantic Coast Region, with 13.6 inches reported at Hiram ME. January proved to be the snowiest of record for much of Massachusetts. Worcester MA reported an all-time monthly record of 46.8 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - Strong southerly winds, gusting to 53 mph at Kansas City MO, spread warm air into the central U.S. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Snow and strong northwest winds ushered cold arctic air into the north central states. The temperature at Cutbank plunged from 54 degrees to a morning low of 7 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - The temperature at McGrath, AK, dipped to 62 degrees below zero, and Fairbanks reported a reading of 51 degrees below zero, with unofficial readings in the area as cold as 75 degrees below zero. The massive dome of bitterly cold air began to slide down western Canada toward the north central U.S. Strong southwest winds ahead of the arctic front pushed the temperature at Great Falls MT to 62 degrees, and gusted to 124 mph at Choteau MT, overturning trucks and mobile homes, and a dozen empty railroad cars. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A major winter storm produced heavy snow from Indiana to New England. It was the biggest storm in two and a half years for eastern New York State. Snowfall totals in the mountains of Maine ranged up to 20 inches at Guilford and Lovell. Other heavy snowfall totals included 17 inches at Utica NY, and 19 inches at Bethel VT, Ludlow VT, and New London NH. The storm claimed three lives in eastern New York State, and four lives in Vermont. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - One of the driest Januarys on record in Iowa was broken up by a winter storm that produced snowfall across the state from January 30-31. The snow was heaviest across southern and southeastern Iowa, where storm total accumulations ranged between 11 and 13 inches along and south of Chariton�s line through Ottumwa to Wapello and Burlington. The highest reported totals were 13.2 inches at Leon and 13.0 inches at Bloomfield and Fairfield.

2005 - A significant ice storm struck parts of northern Georgia on the 30th-31st. Ice accretion was as great as 2 inches in Monroe county, located southeast of Atlanta. Power outages in the area at the height of the storm affected nearly 320,000 homes and businesses.

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Didn’t even hit freezing last night. 

dropped down to 29 here in NE Mass..morning lows have been well above average for days 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Didn’t even hit freezing last night. 

Same. Just end this pathetic winter 

[SACRUS]

 

1966 Blizzard

 

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

Close to the cloudiest January since 1973 on Long Island at 63% now.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=9&year=2024&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[SnoSki14]

I feel like I haven't seen the sun in forever 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Decent cold pocket of air in Quebec, the rest of Canada is rather balmy.  Alaska actually below zero in most places...

Anchorage averaging 2.6°F below normal for both December and January and snowfall has been more than twice normal.  They had a 16" snowfall this week, which is a biggy for Anchorage and current snow depth is 37".  Plus they might come close to some record lows over the next week.

[psv88]

17 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Anchorage averaging 2.6°F below normal for both December and January and snowfall has been more than twice normal.  They had a 16" snowfall this week, which is a biggy for Anchorage and current snow depth is 37".  Plus they might come close to some record lows over the next week.

When Alaska is cold we are warm and the reverse is true as well

[psv88]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Close to the cloudiest January since 1973 on Long Island at 63% now.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=9&year=2024&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Horrific. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Horrific. 

At least we are doing better than Buffalo.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we are doing better than Buffalo.

 

why aren't we getting northwesterly flow behind storms to clear the skies out like we usually do?

 

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why aren't we getting northwesterly flow behind storms to clear the skies out like we usually do?

 

Because Taylor Swift 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

When Alaska is cold we are warm and the reverse is true as well

That’s been my rule of thumb, obviously there are exceptions but it’s almost always the case. I believe during the record February 15 NE snows Alaska was like +30 

[Allsnow]

56 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Anchorage averaging 2.6°F below normal for both December and January and snowfall has been more than twice normal.  They had a 16" snowfall this week, which is a biggy for Anchorage and current snow depth is 37".  Plus they might come close to some record lows over the next week.

Two days of 37” snow depth. Last time that happened was 1959

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Two days of 37” snow depth. Last time that happened was 1959

Patterns where they get deep winter we usually torch. The roaring Pacific jet goes south of them, keeps cold air bottled up there and plenty of storms. We want cold dislodged from there to make it here. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Patterns where they get deep winter we usually torch. The roaring Pacific jet goes south of them, keeps cold air bottled up there and plenty of storms. We want cold dislodged from there to make it here. 

why is it so hard for everyone to be cold at the same time?

when was the last time that happened-- 1979?

[donsutherland1]

Through 1 pm, New York City has had 273 hours with overcast conditions. 21 days have seen overcast conditions at 1 pm. That is the most days for any month at 1 pm.

[Roger Smith]

On 1/28/2024 at 5:46 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks. I'm not on there all the time. I've followed you.

The above is an interesting list. I suspect a number of those weakest entries will be surpassed in the next decade.

 

DON ... Re Twitter (X) I am also not a frequent poster, I created an account to be able to read or follow, not to post my own material, I don't think I have posted more than half a dozen of my own in ten years, so you're basically following a void as far as seeing any interesting material from me. I will follow your feed especially if there are to be consequences for outrageous tweets, I love me some consequences. A warning, I am a bit of a libertarian conservative but I agree with you on climate and coffee anyway. The other stuff is not as important. 

I sort of dedicated my life to studying natural variability of climate not paying much attention (in late 1970s) to global cooling and perhaps at first being a bit skeptical about global warming (having just come out of global cooling) but for quite a while now my basic position has been, let's unravel AGW and natural variability, except recently I am starting to wonder if AGW is just overwhelming all forms of natural variability and creating one bland uber-climate that has only two or three variations. Out west here we still get lots of cold and below normal temps (as you know) or if not that, heat waves. I don't think we're going to fix this climate and we're probably going to have to adapt to it, my hope is that a natural cold signal will fight back and we'll be glad to have the extra greenhouse gas at some point, but will that be 2080 or 5080 or 25080 AD? (By 25080 I doubt that anyone will know what AD refers to, possibly a new count will begin, and also even by 5080 most of the excess will be gone -- we never know what technology could develop in our future and perhaps carbon sequestration will work, so far it is very much in its infant stages). 

What is the new verb for tweet, as in "I tweeted ..." is it "I exed ..." or just "I did the musk." Perhaps Donald Trump will buy X from Elon and call it "Trumpet Voluntary" so when you tweet (or X) you can trump. I think perhaps you trumped that guy with his snowfall map anyway (unless it is 1888). 

 

[Roger Smith]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 1 pm, New York City has had 273 hours with overcast conditions. 21 days have seen overcast conditions at 1 pm. That is the most days for any month at 1 pm.

The ultimate low bar for sunshine hours was January 1953 on what used to be called the Queen Charlotte Islands west of BC (nowadays it's haida gwaii) ... zero sunshine. So it can happen (without polar night). 

It  is also very cloudy out west recently, we got a few minutes of sun yesterday, first time in weeks. I blame Pacific Ocean (cause of all our problems). 

[Rjay]

Snowing on the barrier islands along the south shore.  

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Patterns where they get deep winter we usually torch. The roaring Pacific jet goes south of them, keeps cold air bottled up there and plenty of storms. We want cold dislodged from there to make it here. 

I was thinking of some of the claims that it would take a long time to reload cold air into Canada.

[NorthShoreWx]

23 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Snowing on the barrier islands along the south shore.  

I took a group out for a hike in Calverton this afternoon and it was spitting tiny graupel most of the time.  I even told them what graupel was.

[donsutherland1]

Generally dry weather will continue through much or all of the week, even as some flurries or drizzle is possible overnight. Clouds could persist into or through Thursday.

January will wind up as a solidly warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions will likely continue through the first week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late in the week. There has been some increase in uncertainty concerning the timing of such an evolution.

The overall February outlook remains uncertain. The outcome will be a function of often counteracting forces: the decay of the strong El Niño/ENSO region developments, concurrent marine heatwaves, shifting teleconnections, tropical convection, and ongoing background warming, among other factors. The ECMWF weeklies continue to show a shift toward a sustained colder pattern near mid-month, which would be consistent with strong El Niño climatology. However, there are some cautionary notes.

For example, if the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averages +0.15°C or above, that typically results in a warmer, less snowy outcome for New York City for February cases with ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of +0.50°C or above than those with a colder average anomaly for Region 1+2 (NYC monthly mean temperature: 35.0° vs. 31.2°; NYC average monthly snowfall: 6.0" vs. 16.4"). February 2016 (4.0") was a recent example of a warmer Region 1+2 case. February 2010 (36.9") was a recent example of a colder Region 1+2 cases. There can be exceptions. One exception was February 1983 that saw 21.5" of snow, largely from a major blizzard, despite an average Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.55°C.

No snowfall is expected through the remainder of January. In New York City, there were 19 winters that saw less than 3" of snow through January 31st. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those winters was 11.4". The median snowfall was 10.4". The highest snowfall was 38.9" in 1914 with a blizzard on March 1-2 bringing 14.5" of snow. The historic figures for all winters are 14.6" and 11.8" respectively.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -18.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.973 today.

On January 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.393 (RMM). The January 27-adjusted amplitude was 2.521 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.0° (3.3° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

The ultimate low bar for sunshine hours was January 1953 on what used to be called the Queen Charlotte Islands west of BC (nowadays it's haida gwaii) ... zero sunshine. So it can happen (without polar night). 

It  is also very cloudy out west recently, we got a few minutes of sun yesterday, first time in weeks. I blame Pacific Ocean (cause of all our problems). 

I'm not surprised that somewhere in BC had zero sunshine. I suspect that somewhere in the Pacific Northwest would be the place to achieve it.

[wdrag]

flurries expanding NYC/LI at 650 PM and am pretty sure interior NNJ will see 0.1- to iso 1" ridges ne PA and SC nw NJ by unrise whereever temps now 33F or colder.  It's modeled -8C at the top of moist layer near 850MB...so ice nuclei available. That may disappear toward sunrise when snow changes to drizzle/freezing drizzle-sleet then gradually end. by Noon. SFC temp determines whether freezing or non.   I think there's a pretty good chance of whitening of the ground..maybe not CP but outskirts of the urban centers have a very good chance of whitening, especially NNJ-ne PA.   Enjoy whatever happens.

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[psv88]

Still above freezing