Rjay Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: Welp, good to see absolutely no one took my MJO comments to heart this week People have a comfort zone. Everyone loved the back and forth though. I know I did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Metfan was right about phase 6. On a parallel earth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Metfan was right. Who is Metfan? All we are left with is MJO who jinxed us with his dumb name change 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: Who is Metfan? All we are left with is MJO who jinxed us with his dumb name change Can someone please change my name back. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 New England will like that run of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Can someone please change my name back. Thank you. Why can’t you change your own name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: my god that really was one of my top 5 craziest weather events People will think its just great. Trust me. I'd say they'd break out the shorts, but if you have noticed, many young men wear shorts all year now. There was this whole article on it, with teachers saying they all know a couple of these kids....accompanied by a picture of a young man shoveling snow, in shorts.....later that day my daughter's boyfriend showed up...in shorts. This is recently. I have an entire arsenal of boots, lined pants, socks, waterproof and insulated shoes etc. Despite all that and slathering a bottle of moisturizer twice a day on my skin, I go to bed itching all winter. So some warmth will help my suffering I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 The WPC's latest ice probabilities: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 6 hours ago, psv88 said: Why can’t you change your own name? I already changed it many times. I can't change it anymore. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 23, 2024 Author Share Posted January 23, 2024 No thread yet on what I think is a probable late Sat-Monday morning rain end as a bit of ice or snow NYC Sunday night or Monday. So far insignificant for LI most of NJ (less than 1/2" snow) but it's in play for ice or snow hazards I84 corridor which for me is the Poconos, nw NJ (Sussex County) through interior se NYS on up to MA. 00z/23 EPS has heaviest snow and ice north of I90 while GEFS-CMCE a little closer to I84 and all steady or increasing amounts. If it continues on this course I wont thread. if it slips closer to NYC, I will, but confidence yet on anything significant NYC-LI is well below average. Still worthy of monitoring, If the short term situation eventually involves ice LI, will add a thread, otherwise no threads from myself for now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Awful runs over night Weekend storm is done and models lost the cold after that. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. Are we ever going to have a cold and snowy winter again ? This is getting ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. we need to declare war on the Pacific Ocean and start dumping liquid helium into it (as well as into the Atlantic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Are we ever going to have a cold and snowy winter again ? This is getting ridiculous. As long as the government keeps spraying the atmosphere with chemtrails it won’t. . 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. that map says 46 degrees though? that's not extremely warm at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful runs over night Weekend storm is done and models lost the cold after that. Why would you believe the gfs and gefs when everything was against it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. It will be very hard to flip the script on that look to a cold/snowy one before winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. I see a very noticeable strato/troposphere decoupling over the pole which is again leading to a TPV displacement and polar air being shunted away from NA. We had the opposite occur in mid January. In an extremely warm climate year globally it makes sense that warm patterns are more extreme. But this is being exacerbated by the displacement and erosion of source region and the lack of snowpack recovery accordingly. It makes less physical sense that this is primarily an MJO byproduct. You're ignoring several large pieces of the puzzle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I see a very noticeable strato/troposphere decoupling over the pole which is again leading to a TPV displacement and polar air being shunted away from NA. In an extremely warm climate year globally it makes sense that warm patterns are more extreme. But this is being exacerbated by the displacement and erosion of source region and the lack of snowpack recovery accordingly. It makes less physical sense that this is primarily an MJO byproduct. You're ignoring several large pieces of the puzzle. It’s a combination of the record SSTs in the WPAC for such a strong El Niño and the El Niño itself. So we get MJO action which when combined with El Niño is very warm. As these MJOs progress eastward they excite the +EAMT leading to the Pacific Jet extensions. So just looking at one specific MJO phase composite probably won’t be adequate. This most recent Jet extension will take a few weeks to play out. Hoping we can see some improvements by mid-February relative to the start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Beautiful morning 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 If @bluewaveand other MJO folks want to argue amplification of the MJO in p6-p7 is driving the bus, that's fine. I'm gonna point out that the VP anomaly signal during this supposed 'lag' period that folks were trying to sell is 1) Nowhere near as prolonged and intense as late Novy 2) Displaced further west in the 'lag' period. 3) Not getting 'stuck' or 'slowing down' and again the VP signal is progressive. I admire the dedication to the cause though. I once again am gonna throw a challenge flag on this. I understand the argument, I've read the research and even a cursory look at the current observations via their own methodology is not lining up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s a combination of the record SSTs in the WPAC for such a strong El Niño and the El Niño itself. So we get MJO action which when combined with El Niño is very warm. As these MJOs progress eastward they excite the +EAMT leading to the Pacific Jet extensions. So just looking at one specific MJO phase composite probably won’t be adequate. This most recent Jet extension will take a few weeks to play out. Hoping we can see some improvements by mid-February relative to the start. The arctic region shifts cannot be adequately explained by El Nino, warm SSTs and tropical forcing alone. And we've already determined the lagged MJO h5 charts via Roundy argued for more blocking in this period. You're practicing selective verification here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Why would you believe the gfs and gefs when everything was against it? Same story every year-go with the coldest/snowiest model and run with it...JB's using the Euro control on his blog 'nuff said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Just now, NittanyWx said: The arctic region shifts cannot be adequatelt explained by El Nino, warm SSTs and tropical forcing alone. And we've already determined the lagged MJO signllal via round argued for more blocking in this period. You're practicing selective verification here. the major warm period over the next couple weeks is more so due to +EAMT supercharging the Pacific jet... MJO phases 4-6 in a Nina usually warm us up via jet retraction, which is the opposite of what we're seeing here in the same vein, we should see a flip to quite a favorable pattern around Feb 10-15 as the jet inevitably retracts and the typical Feb Aleutian low takes over. the -PNA forced by the excess momentum also assists in wave breaking that likely leads to a -NAO 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 16 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: The arctic region shifts cannot be adequately explained by El Nino, warm SSTs and tropical forcing alone. And we've already determined the lagged MJO h5 charts via Roundy argued for more blocking in this period. You're practicing selective verification here. The Arctic region shifts with the anomalous +3 AO following the SSW will probably take further research. It is also a very warm signal for us while working in concert with the tropical convection pattern. Several years back there were papers showing a possible link between the Indian Ocean convection and +AO. So it will be interesting to see if such a strong +AO following this SSW is in any related to the recent record Indian Ocean forcing. We usually don’t see such strong forcing there at the time of SSWs. Would probably be a great project for a research paper. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 GREAT job this morning!! This is what I enjoy, intelligent discussions which can lead to new ideas/hypothesis. A lot of posters/readers have benefited. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the major warm period over the next couple weeks is more so due to +EAMT supercharging the Pacific jet... MJO phases 4-6 in a Nina usually warm us up via jet retraction, which is the opposite of what we're seeing here in the same vein, we should see a flip to quite a favorable pattern around Feb 10-15 as the jet inevitably retracts and the typical Feb Aleutian low takes over. the -PNA forced by the excess momentum also assists in wave breaking that likely leads to a -NAO But the +EAMT leading to the Jet extension is also related to the MJO propagating eastward. https://usclivar.org/working-groups/mjo/science/mjo-atmospheric-angular-momentum-length-of-day#:~:text=MJO and Torques,Ocean (Madden%2C 1988). MJO and Torques Frictional and mountain torques induced by the MJO circulation anomalies are responsible for the angular momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the solid earth. Positive frictional torques start the upward trend in AAM when convection increases over the central Indian Ocean (Madden, 1988). As convection moves to the west Pacific, positive mountain torques from east Asian and South American topography provide for a continued increase in AAM. AAM reaches a maximum as convection weakens near the dateline. The relative roles of a direct forcing by the convection versus eddy transport processes induced by the convection remain to be determined. Real time monitoring of the zonal and global AAM budget provides a convenient monitoring and diagnostic tool of the MJO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It will be very hard to flip the script on that look to a cold/snowy one before winter is over Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble the SPV isn't coupled, though, so it doesn't really matter all that much. the troposphere is doing its own thing. maybe it has an effect in mid-March? this is the same as a SSW that doesn't end up coupling and has next to no effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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