Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.

[Stormlover74]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hrrr sends the low up the Delaware river 

But has the heaviest precip ne nj into Hudson valley

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, definitely not waking up at 4am for rain 

I have to get up at 5am for work

[MJO812]

Getting windy here 

[keno19]

992mb Low deepening.   isobars will start to get stacked  by 12am  across LI

[guinness77]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Further west is bad for the island. Not good news if true. 

Yep, don’t like that at all. 

[guinness77]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea I’m a bit worried. House is surrounded by big trees

I had 7 trees when we bought our house 15 years ago. I’m down to 1. That explains why I hate wind. One of them hit my roof, put a hole in it, bounced off and destroyed my porch too. Insult to injury, one of the branches was long enough to shatter the windshield of my car. 

[Tatamy]

0z NAM is not good news for coastal areas.

[Stormlover74]

[PuraVida]

Possible Dry Slotting around 4 AM?

I’m a self admitted wind weenie living near Islip so 4am has me drooling


.

[jm1220]

If the low's in the low 980s and goes through eastern PA, we're probably in for it from the city east in terms of wind. There'll be less rain but the ground is already soaked and there have already been heavy showers around. I'd definitely take 1" more rain for less wind/coastal flooding.

Edit-maybe this double low hanging south from the main low can spare us somewhat. Fingers crossed.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the low's in the low 980s and goes through eastern PA, we're probably in for it from the city east in terms of wind. There'll be less rain but the ground is already soaked and there have already been heavy showers around. I'd definitely take 1" more rain for less wind/coastal flooding.

Edit-maybe this double low hanging south from the main low can spare us somewhat. Fingers crossed.

Ends up 977 north of Albany 

[Big Jims Videos]

Just started cranking at the beach here.  Winds became noticable outside as the precipitation began.  Looks like 40-50 gusts over Delmarva moving north.  

[Tatamy]

Rain total up to 0.50”

[lee59]

.02 here so far, peak gust 24mph

[guinness77]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the low's in the low 980s and goes through eastern PA, we're probably in for it from the city east in terms of wind. There'll be less rain but the ground is already soaked and there have already been heavy showers around. I'd definitely take 1" more rain for less wind/coastal flooding.

Edit-maybe this double low hanging south from the main low can spare us somewhat. Fingers crossed.

It’s funny, I looked at a bunch of wind models a little earlier and despite what we’re supposed to get, the strongest winds still appear to be off coast, and later. But, you see the ticks west, and that’s never a good sign, wind-wise.  

[weathermedic]

Buoy at Diamond Shoals NC has wave heights of 23 feet and winds gusting to 52.4 knots (60 mph)

[weathermedic]

JFK had a couple of gusts to 21 mph since 9pm. Pressure down to 29.79

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

It’s funny, I looked at a bunch of wind models a little earlier and despite what we’re supposed to get, the strongest winds still appear to be off coast, and later. But, you see the ticks west, and that’s never a good sign, wind-wise.  

The worst winds will be for the cape and islands, they could gust over 70. I think ISP gusts to 55 and FRG to 50. Enough for widespread power outages 

[Allsnow]

0.29 

 

Radar looks spotty with best rains well west 

[donsutherland1]

As of 10 pm, rain was falling heavily in Atlantic City, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Sterling, and Washington, DC. The heavy rain will continue to advance northward. The New York City area will likely see its heaviest rain during a period that runs from midnight to about 8 am. The area of heaviest rain still appears likely to occur north and west of Newark and New York City. Strong winds will lash the coastline and coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide.

The latest HREF guidance is below:

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

0.29 

 

Radar looks spotty with best rains well west 

You're getting 3"+ guaranteed. When the LLJ cranks it'll downpour right over this region. 

Every model shows this. The slight westward component to the low could mean higher winds as well.

[Neblizzard]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

0.29 

 

Radar looks spotty with best rains well west 

Calling bust already ?

[donsutherland1]

24-hour HREF map:

[TJW014]

Steadier rains falling now. First gust over 40 mph at the beach (41 mph). KDIX radar velocities showing 70 mph above me (1000 feet beam height)

[USCG RS]

I would say that those on LI should be prepared for an Isais (2020) redux. Winds off the deck look rather fierce and with the System going to the West while juicing (combined with what we have already seen in the SE), I would say that there is the potential for a rather significant event here. We cannot forget either, the ground is already water logged. 

[Intensewind002]

Wind’s definitely starting to pick up now, probably gusting around 30 here

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Wind’s definitely starting to pick up now, probably gusting around 30 here

ASOS sites all gusting 30-33

[nycsnow]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

ASOS sites all gusting 30-33

Do you have a link to view them I used to have a mesonet site but I can’t remember it 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Do you have a link to view them I used to have a mesonet site but I can’t remember it 

https://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=NYZ178&local_place=New York/John F. Kennedy Intl Airport NY&zoneid=EST&offset=18000

[psv88]

Wind starting to crank. Gusts 35 range consistently now. ASOS sites reflect this too. Buckle up