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December Mid/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:


I’ve seen amazing storms and winters in this “climate change era”bad winters have always been with us..even before this recent cycle of warming

And I do wonder if we have enough data to compare snowstorms to now in terms of what a storm A 60 years ago would've looked like today. That part seems more speculative as of now rather than backed up by solid data.

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Don’t mean to interrupt the CC talk, but nice to see the ensembles continue to suggest the pattern flips more favorable in the lead up to Christmas with ridging along the west coast.  

I haven't been looking at them in detail the last several days; would you say the transition is continuing to move up in time, or is it always at day 15?

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Terpeast was transparent with his methodology and the limitations. It’s very valid to point out that the entire storm track could be altered. But it’s impossible to assess that through data analysis. We would need a very sophisticated simulation. However I would argue it’s highly unlikely such changes would end up being a net positive simply because the net impact of warming overall would be to adjust everything north on the whole and average snow decreases as you go south of us. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Terpeast was transparent with his methodology and the limitations. It’s very valid to point out that the entire storm track could be altered. But it’s impossible to assess that through data analysis. We would need a very sophisticated simulation. However I would argue it’s highly unlikely such changes would end up being a net positive simply because the net impact of warming overall would be to adjust everything north on the whole and average snow decreases as you go south of us. 

You should take your own advice, be positive.  Happy Hump Day!

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Both the 0z and 6z GFS have a coastal low for the mid month window with snow for parts of the area. Indications are there on the 0z Ens runs. Again the advertised pattern isn't ideal esp in the NA so really good timing would be needed to get a High positioned to the N/NW for a feed of cold into a storm. Way out there but something to monitor.

1702836000-EFfqtcrlkzM.png

 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Terpeast was transparent with his methodology and the limitations. It’s very valid to point out that the entire storm track could be altered. But it’s impossible to assess that through data analysis. We would need a very sophisticated simulation. However I would argue it’s highly unlikely such changes would end up being a net positive simply because the net impact of warming overall would be to adjust everything north on the whole and average snow decreases as you go south of us. 

Thanks, psu. I was kinda surprised at the reaction. Maybe they forgot about that analysis I did a few months ago. And yes we’d need modeling resources if we really wanted to dynamically simulate what a past storm would like today, but we don’t have those resources. 

Anyway, back to our regularly scheduled tracking…

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Both the 0z and 6z GFS have a coastal low for the mid month window with snow for parts of the area. Indications are there on the 0z Ens runs. Again the advertised pattern isn't ideal esp in the NA so really good timing would be needed to get a High positioned to the N/NW for a feed of cold into a storm. Way out there but something to monitor.

1702836000-EFfqtcrlkzM.png

 

Unless there are significant changes it will be very difficult for anything to start as snow given the North Atlantic setup. But it could be the type of setup where we could get some snow on the back end if things were to evolve in our favor. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unless there are significant changes it will be very difficult for anything to start as snow given the North Atlantic setup. But it could be the type of setup where we could get some snow on the back end if things were to evolve in our favor. 

Yeah its not a favorable NA look on a smoothed mean 10+ days out, but the last 2 runs of the GFS op showed a couple ways it could work with good wave timing setting up transient HP and/or 50-50 from a predecessor low.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest Euro weeklies have some drool worthy h5 looks for January.

1704672000-Er0XdxErlAQ.png

1705276800-JJffpabKOfs.png

looks like the seasonal runs too. The season models/weeklies have been really consistent. Although they may be too warm for December? maybe...maybe not

 

 

seas5_t2ma_mon_conus_DEC2023.png

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest Euro weeklies have some drool worthy h5 looks for January.

1704672000-Er0XdxErlAQ.png

1705276800-JJffpabKOfs.png

Almost all the NWP guidance looks pretty darn sweet for the second half of winter, at least.  The only small bit of reservation I have left is that guidance showed this look consistently in 2019 but the pacific remained stubborn and it never became a reality.  It was constantly a day 10+ tease.  I will feel a lot better when we start to see the pacific actually respond to the +enso and it's not just on super long range guidance.  Obviously that is not an issue yet as it's still too soon but I will be nervous if we start to see the evolution that is currently showing up around Dec 20th start to get can kicked.  

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If anything, Sunday looks like an interesting weather day.  A few GEFS and EPS members look like the Euro op.  Obviously, a long shot and probably not many interested in cold chasing warm especially east of the BR.  But hopefully this storm at least marks the end of our boring weather streak.

image.thumb.png.b0822ea371d7232ccc1b8bfbd1f29cf2.png

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24 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Looks eerily similar to someones avatar. If those looks continue to look stronger in time, might want to change the avatar to a bottle of DogFish Head 120 Min IPA. B)

I was wondering if anyone would notice. And not a bad idea. Utopias barrel aged version ofc.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Almost all the NWP guidance looks pretty darn sweet for the second half of winter, at least.  The only small bit of reservation I have left is that guidance showed this look consistently in 2019 but the pacific remained stubborn and it never became a reality.  It was constantly a day 10+ tease.  I will feel a lot better when we start to see the pacific actually respond to the +enso and it's not just on super long range guidance.  Obviously that is not an issue yet as it's still too soon but I will be nervous if we start to see the evolution that is currently showing up around Dec 20th start to get can kicked.  

I think we’re already seeing some “anti-cankicking” though. Next week has a notable +PNA now and GEFS and EPS have way reduced the amount of time with AN heights for our area. 

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41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The GOA low is just too far east and continues to flood our source region with pacific puke.

It doesn't have to retrograde much to be in a position that has worked just fine in the past.  

We got 2 HECS during this...

compday.USpNFmDI9R.gif.fc9ef668f1032564ed61e555d4e2ab40.gif

And look at our source regions during that period...its torched.

compday.3XybsJyAUG.gif.bd3b04a14b61ad6912e455cdb97a785a.gif

Those storms all came from domestic cold with a perfect STJ storm track while Canada was mild.  At day 10 the guidance even indicated there would be temperature issues for both storms... at one point the GFS showed a perfect track slop storm when it was still over a week out.  It adjusted to be a little colder as it got closer...same as 2016, remember when at day 10 the euro and GFS has temp issues with that storm also despite a perfect track.  

Now this equation won't work in December.  It used to, if you go back before the 1980's there are examples of December snowstorms without a perfect pacific.  But accepting those days are gone...in the last 30 years pretty much every Pre Xmas snowstorm has come via a perfectly placed EPO/PNA combo ridge.  

But I wanted to point out that later in winter that look has and should work...but as I said earlier, while its worked and that look has been responsible for our snowiest periods in history...it was never all that cold, worked with domestic home grown cold absent any true arctic air, and leaves very little wiggle room to still work if you warm the whole profile very much.  I have bet my winter forecast on this equation still working...that we have not yet reached the point where warming has made domestic cold no longer an option for snow.  Let's hope that is correct.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It doesn't have to retrograde much to be in a position that has worked just fine in the past.  

We got 2 HECS during this...

And look at our source regions during that period...its torched.

Those storms all came from domestic cold with a perfect STJ storm track while Canada was mild.  At day 10 the guidance even indicated there would be temperature issues for both storms... at one point the GFS showed a perfect track slop storm when it was still over a week out.  It adjusted to be a little colder as it got closer...same as 2016, remember when at day 10 the euro and GFS has temp issues with that storm also despite a perfect track.  

Now this equation won't work in December.  It used to, if you go back before the 1980's there are examples of December snowstorms without a perfect pacific.  But accepting those days are gone...in the last 30 years pretty much every Pre Xmas snowstorm has come via a perfectly placed EPO/PNA combo ridge.  

But I wanted to point out that later in winter that look has and should work...but as I said earlier, while its worked and that look has been responsible for our snowiest periods in history...it was never all that cold, worked with domestic home grown cold absent any true arctic air, and leaves very little wiggle room to still work if you warm the whole profile very much.  I have bet my winter forecast on this equation still working...that we have not yet reached the point where warming has made domestic cold no longer an option for snow.  Let's hope that is correct.  

Thanks for the insight. Appreciate it. I understand the GOA low is a permanent feature, just don't like the placement.

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13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Thanks for the insight. Appreciate it. I understand the GOA low is a permanent feature, just don't like the placement.

Ideally we would like to see it retro a bit further west...but by day 15 its already not far off from the snowy analogs to this winter.  Below are the snowy periods from 3 of the analogs.  

1966

compday.12jS3wSti5.gif.636074398ec1cd80cc63af63b11c5fa3.gif

1964 

1964h5.gif.745623afecd0d01d0cea38cfd23e2bf2.gif

1987

1987.gif.2542a734c6d05cdeed0fb19d05c15d04.gif

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This is a strong 11-15 day signal for +EPO on the 6z GEFS. 

https://ibb.co/sq5tH7X

We haven't had any snow in stronger +EPO I think for at least the last 5-6 years.  Looking for the model to change (it's been in flux more than average this year), or for that AK trough to become +PNA in the time after... but we likely won't see any snow for the next 15-16 days after today. That can also be a very warm pattern as it evolves.

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38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is a strong 11-15 day signal for +EPO on the 6z GEFS. 

https://ibb.co/sq5tH7X

We haven't had any snow in stronger +EPO I think for at least the last 5-6 years.  Looking for the model to change (it's been in flux more than average this year), or for that AK trough to become +PNA in the time after... but we likely won't see any snow for the next 15-16 days after today. That can also be a very warm pattern as it evolves.

If correct, yeah odds favor what you mentioned of what the consensus has been forecasting for that time frame really. However, we have seen things go against the grain recently. Maybe one of the time's we go back to before the last 5-6 year's. Just a little positive thought. 

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