December 2023

[powderfreak]

Dense fog at 30F this morning had an April morning type vibe.  With late December darkness.

[dryslot]

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Might need to head to Pit 2......looks like a better spot than Westborough.

I'm expecting to see snow up here on Saturday, Its on all the models and ensembles of various projected qpf amounts.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

33 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

pretty boring on the OP runs down here. hopefully that changes at some point

Yeah, it’s been varying degrees of suck honestly. Can’t keep kicking the can forever 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z gfs went back to showing snow for Saturday night. 
 

00z euro did give about 1-2” over the interior too N of pike. There were a few members on the EPS that did have warning snows but it wasn’t many. Still something to watch…esp interior. 

It's occurred to me over the last 2 to 2.5 days worth of guidance.  Right around the time this "signal" started to morph into a possible colder profile, was just about when the all but dependable de-amplification thing began.  It's also yet another telecon mode shift that either fails, or is a weakly correlated version of a restoring system.  I guess I'm sort of wondering if changes in the models over the last 10 years are introducing/emerging new error spectra ...

Just because there's nothing else to discuss on a slow morning of an off week ... the early depictions of this thing were different and warmer.  We definitely are still warm at 850 relative to normals and all that, but the Ontario low with another wcb stripe idea have all disappeared in lieu of a what appears to be a paltry attempt at closing a surface low ... "gunk low" basically at this point.  We've basically traded a can't snow because of a cutter to can't snow for any kind of other reason as yet to be manufactured LOL.   Seems that way.  frustrations and fun.

We're depending on the ICON/GGEM/ 06Z GFS to put wet aggies in the air or something ... anything, to break up this monotony.  

You're right, though ... about Asia.   You know, this reminds of that tortured autumn and early winter of 2006.   Probably bears less analog ( or none...) notwithstanding, the end result of having a lot of early cold over there and nothing/very little over here; and it seems to be reproducing.   2014 did the same thing... again, perhaps for different reasons, the end result was the same.   Let's hope we're nearing a flip this time, too.  

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, it’s been varying degrees of suck honestly. Can’t keep kicking the can forever 

Enjoy regression 

[forkyfork]

we're regressing to a mean that's getting worse every year 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we're regressing to a mean that's getting worse every year 

Snowfall averages up to Boston will eventually go down. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 days of pea soup fog . Not sure I’ve ever seen that before 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Enjoy regression 

Yawn, been there, done that. Hasn’t snowed in nearly two years, we numb 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yawn, been there, done that. Hasn’t snowed in nearly two years, we numb 

Nah you mad. Can sense the anger. 

[metagraphica]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3 days of pea soup fog . Not sure I’ve ever seen that before 

Enjoy the new normal?

[dryslot]

A failed veiled attempt.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nah you mad. Can sense the anger. 

Yep. Got used to averaging like 55” per year for a couple decades during the formative years. 
 

Anyways, still think we might get something in the interior this weekend. Can’t rule out eastern coast either if we can strengthen a little midlevel circulation before it exits. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nice am walk in the fog by KBED, went from overcast in ASH yesterday to decently Blue skies near KBED and south yesterday 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we're regressing to a mean that's getting worse every year 

funny you mentioned it that way. I've been thinking about the same arithmetic whenever I hear explanation rooted in 'law of averages'   LOA doesn't logically make sense because (most likely) people are not moving the average in their heads - linear comparison. The trend-line is not linear but seems like it must be curving down.   

But ... others will be quick to point out that snow has gone up since whenever.   I don't know what those numbers are per month.  Maybe its gone up because single storm events snow 40" inches ... but then you go 3 years with only 2" in January, you get to still end up on the plus side.  yay.   It's like a deal with the devil.  haha.  

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Enjoy the new normal?

The moon was out and it was clear when I hit the road to run at 5:00 and within minutes the fog swooped back in. Socked in all of yesterday . Maybe it’ll break this afternoon . Just strange to have days and days and days of fog.. especially with no snow to melt 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Got used to averaging like 55” per year for a couple decades during the formative years. 
 

Anyways, still think we might get something in the interior this weekend. Can’t rule out eastern coast either if we can strengthen a little midlevel circulation before it exits. 

What’s an appropriate worry timeline? If we have nothing after first week of Jan?

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Got used to averaging like 55” per year for a couple decades during the formative years. 
 

Anyways, still think we might get something in the interior this weekend. Can’t rule out eastern coast either if we can strengthen a little midlevel circulation before it exits. 

Absolutely this.  The guy will try and tell us that he hasn’t had anything in a decade though, that’s how misled he actually is. But anger and frustration have blinded him into ignorance, that he is unable to see. All he speaks of is can kicking…maybe Ray can hook him up with a therapist..the boy needs help. 

[butterfish55]

85/77 here in Aruba. Nice morning. We take

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What’s an appropriate worry timeline? If we have nothing after first week of Jan?

Brett sometimes very good winters don’t flip until the very end of January(15).  Or into February(07).  Sometimes like last year they never flip(although we did have a few chances last year, but came up empty)…And just go full on Rat.  String Nino Decembers are usually bad anyway. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

funny you mentioned it that way. I've been thinking about the same arithmetic whenever I hear explanation rooted in 'law of averages'     That logically doesn't make sense because that assumes a linear comparison, when the trend-line is not linear but curving down, probably/maybe/needs to be ascertained, in this case.   

But ... others will be quick to point out that snow has gone up since whenever.   I don't know what those numbers are per month.  Maybe it’s gone up because single storm events snow 40" inches ... but then you go 3 years with only 2" in January, but you still end up on the plus side.  It's like a deal with the devil.  haha.  

Theoretically speaking , you can also reach a point where despite larger storms the underlying modifying temps and less frequency of cold systems overcomes the former and the “line” that determines where snow is increasing may be moving streadily NW and or toward elevation (In New England ) and beyond , also at the same time another “line “delineating”  falling annual snowfall (to the SE of the first line) is also marching NW and creeping into NYC and burbs , Cape and Coastal SNE and then beyond due to the milder temps outweighing the juicer systems when it comes to net/net annual snowfall changes 
 

I’m not saying it is as I have no idea and Data wouldn’t conclusively show this till way past it started (to confirm it wasn’t a blip decade or two) especially with all the inherent variability in SNE but it’s just the way I think it could play out over time . NNE would also probably begin to see greater variation then they are used to if that process were unfolding 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Got used to averaging like 55” per year for a couple decades during the formative years. 
 

Anyways, still think we might get something in the interior this weekend. Can’t rule out eastern coast either if we can strengthen a little midlevel circulation before it exits. 

Might be a pike north thing. Hopefully it can redevelop sooner. 

[tavwtby]

was just looking at the snow summary I did, and late 20s to early 40s of 1900s, with a couple anomaly years were mostly below average, then the curve goes up from 50s to early 70s, and began trending down, and began going up again around the turn of the century, on a long enough time line, you can definitely see the cycle almost sine wave of the moving average, we're due for an up trend though

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Theoretically speaking , you can also reach a point where despite larger storms the underlying modifying temps and less frequency of cold systems overcomes the former and the “line” that determines where snow is increasing may be moving streadily NW and or toward elevation (In New England ) and beyond , also at the same time another “line “delineating”  falling annual snowfall (to the SE of the first line) is also marching NW and creeping into NYC and burbs , Cape and Coastal SNE and then beyond  .
 

I’m not saying it is as I have no idea and Data wouldn’t conclusively show this till way past it started (to confirm it wasn’t a few year blip) but it’s just the way I think it could play out over time 

 

I agree ... more or less.  It comes down to the old concept over how statistics belie the truth ... Ever heard, 'there are lies, there are damn lies, then there are statistics'  ? 

That's actually a loaded sentiment, because it can be applied for a lot of different contexts.   But the gist is that real-time experience and statistics don't always share the same space.  

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What’s an appropriate worry timeline? If we have nothing after first week of Jan?

If we’re two weeks in snowless and long range guidance looks like crap, we punt. I think that’s reasonable. It is possible we could have a late start.

[dryslot]

It seems like every time things start to look good it gets pushed back, There is a point of no return though, Up here, It could be sooner rather then later, We're starting from scratch all over again.

[kdxken]

Added bonus to the never-ending rain and continual mild temperatures Is the year-round mud season.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It seems like every time things start to look good it gets pushed back, There is a point of no return though, Up here, It could be sooner rather then later, We're starting from scratch all over again.

Was something pushed back (serious question )

 

I mean a good to very good  early January pattern seems like it became serviceable to maybe good for (beginning to middle January)  . Maybe semantics 

then there was a period of “relaxation” mid month on ..talked about which sometimes means dog crap for coastal SNE and serviceable for CNE/NNE (it will be peak climo there ) and then there was the hope/ idea that some SSW and or blocking shortened significantly the above mentioned period of meh and we entered a decent El Niño pattern for end of January . Mid January is still over 15 days away so feels to me like goal posts are still kinda wide for that period given climo?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It seems like every time things start to look good it gets pushed back, There is a point of no return though, Up here, It could be sooner rather then later, We're starting from scratch all over again.

The models seem to love to build big faux cold and drop it into CONUS in the deep extended. I take it all with a grain of salt. With little pack and thawed ground over a lot of the north there’s going to be modification of any cold shots that come in until we build Tip’s cryosphere southward. Deep winter always eventually arrives at our latitude to some temporal extent and I’d be surprised if it doesn’t this year too, but I’m hesitant of any epic pattern shown in the LR until we can get it consistently inside d7. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Even Mainers waving white flags 

https://x.com/nwsgray/status/1739672559267000563?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg