December 2023

[weatherwiz]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wolfie what’s your B.P 

probably about as high as the pressure over SE Canada

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Well it’s about euro time for NNe fortunes next week 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Dude…STFU!  

Make me bitch

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

Not seeing cold air on the long range guidance. Even in the very long range the BN anomalies are confined to the south. NNE is AN. 

Are we in search for cold and dry or snow? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Best forum ever 

This is getting good. I thought we’d have to wait until 2024 but them fighting words starting earlier. 

[brooklynwx99]

looks like our first crack at something might be showing up around the 3rd or so? vort undercuts the -EPO ridge with a trough in SE Canada. nice split flow pattern

[brooklynwx99]

also notice how the source region is fundamentally different once into the New Year... we're getting air from AK and the Arctic rather than the Pacific. follow the streamlines

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS looks cold enough to me in the long range

One interesting thing I noticed is that the notoriously cold biased GFS is 0 to +1 for a 7 day anomaly at the surface for SNE day 10-16.. However at 850mb its like -5 to -10.. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gorilla’s live in the rainforest so…yea, more big rainers on tap.

Just to clarify, it's a term that we use (Gorilla from the Gulf). Not meant to mean rainers or anything like that. Although sometimes that can happen. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just to clarify, it's a term that we use (Gorilla from the Gulf). Not meant to mean rainers or anything like that. Although sometimes that can happen. 

I know what you meant but until we have a locked in cold source nearby, the gorilla gonna rain. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

One interesting thing I noticed is that the notoriously cold biased GFS is 0 to +1 for a 7 day anomaly at the surface for SNE day 10-16.. However at 850mb its like -5 to -10.. 

maybe related to mixing? The GFS tends to get overzealous with mixing but that is an interesting observation, I did not notice that. 

what's also interesting too is I feel like it's been much harder to get anomalous daytime departures on the colder side. Remember back this spring or maybe early summer we had some pretty anomalous cold llvl airmasses overhead but we were still barely netting negative departures at the sfc. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Are we in search for cold and dry or snow? 

Typically I've found on this forum over the past 15-20 years (but especially the last 6-8 years) is that if no snowstorms are imminent on guidance, many will just look for deep blue temperature anomalies over us and if they don't see them, then it means we're not getting snow through the end of that 15 day ensemble period. It's roughly a 5th grade way of looking at the wx pattern, but you can only lead a horse to water.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wolfie what’s your B.P 

These people are just ridiculous. I mean we’ve known for 12 days that this period was going to suck, and that the changes are shortly after.  That looks in track, But yet these fools keep saying the same crap. Give it a rest already.   If the whole thing fails, and we get zero snow and zero cold, I’ll gladly give them the credit for being right…even if it’s for the wrong reasons. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Typically I've found on this forum over the past 15-20 years (but especially the last 6-8 years) is that if no snowstorms are imminent on guidance, many will just look for deep blue temperature anomalies over us and if they don't see them, then it means we're not getting snow through the end of that 15 day ensemble period. It's roughly a 5th grade way of looking at the wx pattern, but you can only lead a horse to water.

But they never listen, or never learn. True definition of dummies. 

[weatherwiz]

We don't really need a full-fledged Arctic airmass in place either. I mean how any of our biggies have come with a super cold Arctic airmass in place? Sure they have happened but IMO, if we have a deep Arctic airmass in place we're likely looking at either a suppressed pattern or an inactive pattern. 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

It better be plus, We get to the second week of Jan and no results, My patience will start to wear quite thin.

Any feelings of despair I have over lack of snow this winter will be tempered by the upcoming first season with my new toy.

 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Typically I've found on this forum over the past 15-20 years (but especially the last 6-8 years) is that if no snowstorms are imminent on guidance, many will just look for deep blue temperature anomalies over us and if they don't see them, then it means we're not getting snow through the end of that 15 day ensemble period. It's roughly a 5th grade way of looking at the wx pattern, but you can only lead a horse to water.

I’m not denying that we can get snow. It absolutely can snow with AN temp anomalies in New England, but you aren’t building a snowpack with this post 2015 temp profile. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Any feelings of despair I have over lack of snow this winter will be tempered by the upcoming first season with my new toy.

 

You could of used that to ride out last weekend’s screamer 

I assume it’s stocked with Diet Coke 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, George001 said:

I’m not denying that we can get snow. It absolutely can snow with AN temp anomalies in New England, but you aren’t building a snowpack with this post 2015 temp profile. 

bruh, worry about getting your 1st inch than worrying about a snowpack

[butterfish55]

Any feelings of despair I have over lack of snow this winter will be tempered by the upcoming first season with my new toy.
 

Congrats Mike! Good that you have a picture of one of the two happiest days in a boat owner's life.

Installed a generator at a house right on the water in Wareham today. Steady wind, absolutely freezing

[moneypitmike]

Just now, butterfish55 said:

Congrats Mike! Good that you have a picture of one of the two happiest days in a boat owner's life.

Installed a generator at a house right on the water in Wareham today. Steady wind, absolutely freezing

LOL.  I just made the first payment so that day is now in the past. 

No more worries of outages with the generator all wired!

[NorEastermass128]

Was that just the Corey Pestaturo the accordion player from RI on 98.5 just now?

[weatherwiz]

snowpacks are for the Sierra's 

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not denying that we can get snow. It absolutely can snow with AN temp anomalies in New England, but you aren’t building a snowpack with this post 2015 temp profile. 

Maybe we should stop focusing on other seasons and what we did in 2015 or any other season and wait to see what happens in this season. No two seasons are alike. I don't care how much they seem like they're matching up, there's twists and turns that happen in the blink of an eye. All it takes George is one huge snowstorm to drop a big cover of snow, and that could be our base for building our snowpack. Even if things don't get started till early January, snow can stay on the ground in January, February and into March. Even with a higher sun angle in March, we've had snowy March's where snow stayed on the ground..... maybe it melted faster on the pavement, but we've had snow cover everywhere else. Point is, stop focusing on other years and comparing them to what's happening this year because no two years are the same ever.

[George001]

Good ol AGW denying Wolfie calling people dummies. Pot calling the kettle black much?

[rehjr]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Good ol AGW denying Wolfie calling people dummies. Pot calling the kettle black much?

You should post in the NYC forum. You would fit right in. 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maybe we should stop focusing on other seasons and what we did in 2015 or any other season and wait to see what happens in this season. No two seasons are alike. I don't care how much they seem like they're matching up, there's twists and turns that happen in the blink of an eye. All it takes. Takes George is one huge snowstorm to drop a big cover of snow, and that could be our base for building our snowpack. Even if things don't get started till early January, snow can stay on the ground in January, February and to March. Even with a higher sun angle in March, we've had snowy marches where snow stayed on the ground, maybe it melted faster on the pavement, but we've had snow cover everywhere. Else. Else. Point is stop focusing on other years and comparing to what's happening this year because no two years are the same ever.

Fair enough, but based on what I’m seeing my opinion is that we are going to be fighting temps for most of this winter. Borderline super nino, strong -PDO, roaring pacific jet, and record low snow cover for our source regions. The Pope brought this up multiple times, but people keep ignoring it. Instead of ignoring him, I am choosing to read and learn from his posts. He knows his shit, and he’s usually right. 

[Layman]

Wolfie's From Mars, George Is From Venus

[Lava Rock]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

snowpacks are for the Sierra's 

how are they doing thus far compared to last yr?

[George001]

14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

bruh, worry about getting your 1st inch than worrying about a snowpack

Yeah, you got me there.