December 2023

[SJonesWX]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

how the fuck is January 1-4 mid-month? what is going on in here. do we need to redefine dates?

@qg_omegaone of those is literally for Dec 28-Jan 2. explain to me how that isn’t around the end of December

IDK why you respond to that troll. he/she does not post in good faith, never has, never will. Which explains the 5 post limit.

[mahk_webstah]

52 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I will admit that if I hadn't gotten clobbered in that March storm, it would have been a BN season here

above average up here, and not dependent on March storm.  Very much on the edge just north of CON, but a good snow season with a depth at one point of about 33-34".

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

IDK why you respond to that troll. he/she does not post in good faith, never has, never will. Which explains the 5 post limit.

I wish folks wouldn’t even quote these trolls. I have all of them blocked, and I should have done it years ago.  But it’s like a new board now when I don’t have to look at their moronic ideas and childish arguments…they hold zero water. 

[Torch Tiger]

Well December is cooked, that leaves January into Mid-February for winter. Sun angle seaaon/banter is rapidly approaching, tick tock!

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

how the fuck is January 1-4 mid-month? what is going on in here. do we need to redefine dates?

@qg_omegaone of those is literally for Dec 28-Jan 2. explain to me how that isn’t around the end of December

I hope he uses up one of his five responding to this.  He can't control himself because his pessimism is going down in flames...or icicles.

[mahk_webstah]

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That’s the point, ensembles have showed the better pattern 10 to 15 days away and are wrong.  Canada is a blow torch and I don’t see any changes until Canada cools down significantly.  The conus warmth this month and into YEAR END is historic.  We aren’t just going to “flip” colder without massive changes.  I see nothing for the next three weeks, maybe I’ll be wrong, lets hope.  The reasons I outlined two weeks ago have not changed.

NO CHANGES!  On so many levels.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I hope he uses up one of his five responding to this.  He can't control himself because his pessimism is going down in flames...or icicles.

He has already accomplished his goal, which was to leave 2-3 pages of verbal carnage in his wake lol

[UnitedWx]

55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

December sledding is always iffy, even in northern Maine.  Some years it’s ago in late December, some years it isn’t.  Been that way for the last 30 yrs I’ve been going there.   Oh well, we wait a little longer. 

There were many a year when our New Year's weekend season kickoff just couldn't happen in Far Northern Vermont because they're simply wasn't enough snow   EDIT: Or any snow, unless you were up on the top of Jay Peak

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Well December is cooked, that leaves January into Mid-February for winter. Sun angle seaaon/banter is rapidly approaching, tick tock!

LOL.   Already gained 2 minutes on sunset here...

[cleetussnow]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think people realize that when you LR forecast, you are going to be wrong more than you’re right. just the way it is 

a lot of the people that troll don’t even really make any calls, either. they just bump troll

regardless the change to a better pattern is still moving up in time. don’t really see any changes there

I see you are on fire in this thread...but...bh. The bold there. How can that be?  Shall I just fade all of the LR forecasts and be right more than wrong?  That is what success would look like.  Not much of a forecast if it's worse than a coin flip. 

A lot of people in here are disbelievers in the LR forecasts and models until they see the whites of the snowflakes.  I myself am coming around to the year-end changes but my faith in anything past day 10 is very limited for good reason, and that may be that you are somewhat correct:  Long range is more often wrong than right.  So, in that case, the skeptics are on the right side of the trade, no? That would be rational.  

[roardog]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, a warm Canada doesn't mean that it can't be cold here. it's a silly argument. +10 up there can be -5 down here... the GEFS shows that well. this is often the case in El Nino winters. Feb 2010 is actually a glaring example. Canada was absolutely blowtorched and BWI got 50" that month

Maybe my memory is wrong but wasn’t 09-10 the warmest winter on record for Canada?

[Typhoon Tip]

Not buyin' what this 12z Euro op run's sellin' on that thing out there.

That's next to statistically unheard of parking a 1040+mb fresh polar high barely 100 mi N of Maine, and still driving a low through central NE.  Not only that, as that anticyclone assumes position it will with very high likeliness ... fold cold around the western -NW topography and drill it SW clear to NJ

Something tells me just based upon that alone ... that corrects south, en masse, both systemically, but also the lower level features over SNE. How much so who knows but that evolution as it's laying out is unlikely.

These cold polar high renditions - however - should be taken seriously, as again ... weak but crucial -EPO relaying into a +PNA with qualitative blocking near 55/110 W, just about physically has to send a cooling lower troposphere through S-SE Canada. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I see you are on fire in this thread...but...bh. The bold there. How can that be?  Shall I just fade all of the LR forecasts and be right more than wrong?  That is what success would look like.  Not much of a forecast if it's worse than a coin flip. 

A lot of people in here are disbelievers in the LR forecasts and models until they see the whites of the snowflakes.  I myself am coming around to the year-end changes but my faith in anything past day 10 is very limited for good reason, and that may be that you are somewhat correct:  Long range is more often wrong than right.  So, in that case, the skeptics are on the right side of the trade, no? That would be rational.  

I don't work in energy so I don't know what it's like "behind the scenes" but too me, long-range is about understand pattern evolution and understanding how certain pattern regimes influence week-to-week or day-to-day sensible weather. At least on the boards and social media for anyone who loves weather, I think the premise of long-range forecasting is misunderstood and used incorrectly. Most people who love weather love snow, that isn't a secret. So as we get closer to winter everyone is focusing on long-range and wants to know whether it will snow in their backyard...that is all everyone cares about. This isn't the point of long-range forecasting.

If people are going to "verify" model performance and patterns based on what happens in their backyards, well that is on them. I may be incorrect in this, but I would wager that the skill in forecasting temperatures (anomalies) weeks to even a month or two out is probably higher than most would think. Forecasting anything outside of this variable is going to greatly impact accuracy and increase variability. Even in a "favorable" pattern, many pieces still have to fall in place to produce a storm (or well just say snow because that is what everyone wants). How shortwaves are traversing the pattern, how they evolve, and how they interact are somewhat correlated to the actual pattern, but timing/speed is more related to other factors. 

There is more to verification and scores and success than whether someone gets snow in their backyard. 

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL.   Already gained 2 minutes on sunset here...

Yeah, baby steps for now but in a few weeks that sun will be cookin!

[40/70 Benchmark]

In a few weeks we have yet to even reach climo nadir lol

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL.   Already gained 2 minutes on sunset here...

But you’re still losing more time in the morning…so your day is still technically shortening for another few days.  

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In a few weeks we have yet to even reach climo nadir lol

Correct. Just more nonsense from the trolls. 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In a few weeks we have yet to even reach climo nadir lol

Yeah near/less than a month away now!  Wish we could just fast-forward, but this winter's flying by as it is!

[Lava Rock]

Seems like it would be better to add a "thumbs down" emoticon to the lower right of posts rather than quote someone then do it there. Some of these troll posts are worthy of big thumbs down

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Seems like it would be better to add a "thumbs down" emoticon to the lower right of posts rather than quote someone then do it there. Some of these troll posts are worthy of big thumbs down

there isn't much to discuss until beyond D10, unless you want to talk about the rainers?

[Torch Tiger]

[PWMan]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

there isn't much to discuss until beyond D10, unless you want to talk about the rainers?

I'm mostly a lurker here, but would respectfully suggest that if there isn't much to discuss the better option would be to just find something else to do. Wading through the doom-posting has really gotten tedious.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Most guidance is suggesting after the new year before anything worth watching may materialize.

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, PWMan said:

I'm mostly a lurker here, but would respectfully suggest that if there isn't much to discuss the better option would be to just find something else to do. Wading through the doom-posting has really gotten tedious.

 I have plenty to discuss, including some quite mild wx leading up to Christmas.  What I was saying is, that THEY may not have much to discuss.  Also, the cries of "trolling" over any little thing, real or imagined becomes tedious tbh.

[weatherwiz]

Do archived MJO phase diagrams exist? I'm curious to know if there are phase diagrams dating back to 1979 where you can see MJO wave progression throughout the year. 

[dendrite]

I’m cheering on a mild, snowless winter, but I don’t want to “rain” on anyone’s parade in here. Maybe we need a separate warmth cheerleading thread.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I’m cheering on a mild, snowless winter, but I don’t want to “rain” on anyone’s parade in here. Maybe we need a separate warmth cheerleading thread.

Mother Nature is taking care of that for you, no worries.

[PWMan]

16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 I have plenty to discuss, including some quite mild wx leading up to Christmas.  What I was saying is, that THEY may not have much to discuss.  Also, the cries of "trolling" over any little thing, real or imagined becomes tedious tbh.

What I'm referring to are the hit-and-run posts of torch maps and the analysis-free and fatalistic "close the blinds" stuff. I think the recent activity focused on a warm rainstorm demonstrates that people will engage around non-snowy outcomes as long as the weather is remarkable, but mild and dry weather leading up to Christmas is a different story.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Do archived MJO phase diagrams exist? I'm curious to know if there are phase diagrams dating back to 1979 where you can see MJO wave progression throughout the year. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

This is fantastic, thank you! 

Wish this came up in my google search.